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Thursday, 15 November 18
OIL MARKET REPORT: HEEDING THE WARNINGS - IEA
 In last month’s Report, we noted that since the middle of the year oil supply had increased sharply, with gains in the Middle East, Russia and the United States more than compensating for falls in production in Iran, Venezuela and elsewhere. New data show that the pace has accelerated, and this higher output, in combination with Iranian sanctions waivers issued by the US and steady demand growth, implies a stock build in 4Q18 of 0.7 mb/d. Already, OECD stocks have increased for four months in a row, with products back above the five-year average. In 1H19, based on our outlook for non-OPEC production and global demand, and assuming flat OPEC production (i.e. losses from Iran/Venezuela are offset by others), the implied stock build is currently 2 mb/d.
In the August edition of this Report we described the replacement of Iranian and Venezuelan barrels as “challenging”, and that there was a danger of prices rising too high too fast. Producers have heeded the warnings and more than met the challenge and today, the Big Three, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United States, all see output at record levels. Total non-OPEC production in August, the latest month for which we have consolidated data, was 3.5 mb/d higher than a year ago, with the United States contributing an extraordinary 3.0 mb/d. Russia’s crude output has hit a new record of 11.4 mb/d, with companies suggesting that they could produce even more.
In early October, the price of Brent crude oil reached a four-year high above $86/bbl, reflecting the legitimate fears of market tightness. In our view, this was a dangerous “red zone” and it justified calls for producers to raise output. Today, the price has fallen to a more reasonable level close to $70/bbl, well below where it was in May before the US announced its change of policy on Iran. Lower prices are clearly a benefit to consumers, especially hard-pressed ones in developing countries that are suffering from the additional handicap of weak national currencies. For now, forecasts of oil demand growth remain solid with an increase of 1.3 mb/d this year and an increase to 1.4 mb/d in 2019, even though the macro-economic outlook is uncertain.
We should also recognise the interests of the producers. For many countries, even though their output might have increased, prices falling too far are unwelcome. Ministers from the Vienna Agreement countries will meet in early December, but we have already seen suggestions from leading producers that supply could be cut soon if customers, seeing ample supply, rising stocks, and slumping refining margins, request lower volumes.
Although the oil market appears to be more relaxed than it was a few weeks ago, and there might be a sense of “mission accomplished” that producers have met the challenge of replacing lost barrels, such is the volatility of events that rising stocks should be welcomed as a form of insurance, rather than a threat. The United States remains committed to reducing Iranian oil exports to zero from the 1.8 mb/d seen today; there are concerns as to the stability of production in Libya, Nigeria and Venezuela; and the tanker collision last week in Norwegian waters, although modest in impact, is another reminder of the vulnerability of the system to accidents.
The response to the call by the IEA and others to increase production is a reminder that the oil industry works best when it works together. Regular contacts between key players are essential in creating understanding, and even though oil diplomacy has succeeded so far this year, it needs to be maintained to ensure market stability.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 12 September 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
A recovery in the shipping market since last year has buoyed optimism amongst the people in the industry. Yet if you are to ask most ship-owners if ...
Monday, 10 September 18
HANDYSIZE: PERIOD ACTIVITY REMAINED LIMITED WITH A 37,000DWT REPORTEDLY FIXED FOR FOUR TO SIX MONTHS AT $10,500, OPEN IN MALAYSIA IN MID-SEPTEMBER - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Rates came under pressure for the big ships last week, despite paper values holding at reasonable levels as these trades continued to ...
Thursday, 06 September 18
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE FALLS FOR FIRST TIME IN 3 MONTHS
COALspot.com: The benchmark price of Indonesian thermal coal falls for first time in three months.
According to the latest min ...
Thursday, 06 September 18
SUPRAMAX: SE ASIA-INDO ROUNDS WITH COAL HAVE BEEN CONCLUDED IN THE $13000S RANGE - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
The big ships experiencing a bump in the road towards what is commonly expected to be by far the best period of this year. Average dai ...
Wednesday, 05 September 18
ASIAN DEMAND COULD CREATE DEFICIT IN GLOBAL LNG MARKET - FITCH RATINGS
Growing gas demand from Asia, particularly from China, could swing the liquefied natural gas (LNG) market into a deficit by 2022-2025, Fitch Rating ...
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Showing 1626 to 1630 news of total 6871 |
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- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Australian Coal Association
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The University of Queensland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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