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Thursday, 15 November 18
OIL MARKET REPORT: HEEDING THE WARNINGS - IEA
 In last month’s Report, we noted that since the middle of the year oil supply had increased sharply, with gains in the Middle East, Russia and the United States more than compensating for falls in production in Iran, Venezuela and elsewhere. New data show that the pace has accelerated, and this higher output, in combination with Iranian sanctions waivers issued by the US and steady demand growth, implies a stock build in 4Q18 of 0.7 mb/d. Already, OECD stocks have increased for four months in a row, with products back above the five-year average. In 1H19, based on our outlook for non-OPEC production and global demand, and assuming flat OPEC production (i.e. losses from Iran/Venezuela are offset by others), the implied stock build is currently 2 mb/d.
In the August edition of this Report we described the replacement of Iranian and Venezuelan barrels as “challenging”, and that there was a danger of prices rising too high too fast. Producers have heeded the warnings and more than met the challenge and today, the Big Three, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United States, all see output at record levels. Total non-OPEC production in August, the latest month for which we have consolidated data, was 3.5 mb/d higher than a year ago, with the United States contributing an extraordinary 3.0 mb/d. Russia’s crude output has hit a new record of 11.4 mb/d, with companies suggesting that they could produce even more.
In early October, the price of Brent crude oil reached a four-year high above $86/bbl, reflecting the legitimate fears of market tightness. In our view, this was a dangerous “red zone” and it justified calls for producers to raise output. Today, the price has fallen to a more reasonable level close to $70/bbl, well below where it was in May before the US announced its change of policy on Iran. Lower prices are clearly a benefit to consumers, especially hard-pressed ones in developing countries that are suffering from the additional handicap of weak national currencies. For now, forecasts of oil demand growth remain solid with an increase of 1.3 mb/d this year and an increase to 1.4 mb/d in 2019, even though the macro-economic outlook is uncertain.
We should also recognise the interests of the producers. For many countries, even though their output might have increased, prices falling too far are unwelcome. Ministers from the Vienna Agreement countries will meet in early December, but we have already seen suggestions from leading producers that supply could be cut soon if customers, seeing ample supply, rising stocks, and slumping refining margins, request lower volumes.
Although the oil market appears to be more relaxed than it was a few weeks ago, and there might be a sense of “mission accomplished” that producers have met the challenge of replacing lost barrels, such is the volatility of events that rising stocks should be welcomed as a form of insurance, rather than a threat. The United States remains committed to reducing Iranian oil exports to zero from the 1.8 mb/d seen today; there are concerns as to the stability of production in Libya, Nigeria and Venezuela; and the tanker collision last week in Norwegian waters, although modest in impact, is another reminder of the vulnerability of the system to accidents.
The response to the call by the IEA and others to increase production is a reminder that the oil industry works best when it works together. Regular contacts between key players are essential in creating understanding, and even though oil diplomacy has succeeded so far this year, it needs to be maintained to ensure market stability.
Source: IEA
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Friday, 11 January 19
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN ARENA HAD A MIXED START; LIMITED ACTION IN SOUTHEAST ASIA - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Dashed hopes summed up the first full week of the New Year. A slow start followed by a busy 24 hours of improving rates and a firming ...
Thursday, 10 January 19
BUNKER DELIVERY NOTE AMENDMENTS ENTER INTO FORCE AS SULPHUR 2020 REQUIREMENT LOOMS - IMO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Amendments to the bunker delivery note relating to the supply of marine fuel oil to ships which have fitted alternative m ...
Thursday, 10 January 19
WORLD TRADE IN THERMAL COAL IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE GROWN BY 1.0 PER CENT IN 2018 - DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRY, AUSTRALIA
World Trade
World trade in thermal coal is estimated to have grown by 1.0 per cent to 1.1 billion tonnes in 2018 but it is expected to decline ...
Thursday, 10 January 19
PAKISTAN'S COAL IMPORTS TO SURGE TO 30 MILLION TONS PER ANNUM BY 2020 - CEO, PIB
Pakistan’s coal imports are estimated to surge to 30 million tons/annum from existing 20 million tons/annum by the year 2020, given the plann ...
Wednesday, 09 January 19
PANAMAX: THE PACIFIC SAW RELATIVELY GOOD DEMAND PARTICULARLY FROM INDONESIA AND NOPAC - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
It was an active start to the New Year, with trading from West Australia maintaining momentum during the holiday period. Rates for Chi ...
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
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