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Thursday, 15 November 18
OIL MARKET REPORT: HEEDING THE WARNINGS - IEA
 In last month’s Report, we noted that since the middle of the year oil supply had increased sharply, with gains in the Middle East, Russia and the United States more than compensating for falls in production in Iran, Venezuela and elsewhere. New data show that the pace has accelerated, and this higher output, in combination with Iranian sanctions waivers issued by the US and steady demand growth, implies a stock build in 4Q18 of 0.7 mb/d. Already, OECD stocks have increased for four months in a row, with products back above the five-year average. In 1H19, based on our outlook for non-OPEC production and global demand, and assuming flat OPEC production (i.e. losses from Iran/Venezuela are offset by others), the implied stock build is currently 2 mb/d.
In the August edition of this Report we described the replacement of Iranian and Venezuelan barrels as “challenging”, and that there was a danger of prices rising too high too fast. Producers have heeded the warnings and more than met the challenge and today, the Big Three, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United States, all see output at record levels. Total non-OPEC production in August, the latest month for which we have consolidated data, was 3.5 mb/d higher than a year ago, with the United States contributing an extraordinary 3.0 mb/d. Russia’s crude output has hit a new record of 11.4 mb/d, with companies suggesting that they could produce even more.
In early October, the price of Brent crude oil reached a four-year high above $86/bbl, reflecting the legitimate fears of market tightness. In our view, this was a dangerous “red zone” and it justified calls for producers to raise output. Today, the price has fallen to a more reasonable level close to $70/bbl, well below where it was in May before the US announced its change of policy on Iran. Lower prices are clearly a benefit to consumers, especially hard-pressed ones in developing countries that are suffering from the additional handicap of weak national currencies. For now, forecasts of oil demand growth remain solid with an increase of 1.3 mb/d this year and an increase to 1.4 mb/d in 2019, even though the macro-economic outlook is uncertain.
We should also recognise the interests of the producers. For many countries, even though their output might have increased, prices falling too far are unwelcome. Ministers from the Vienna Agreement countries will meet in early December, but we have already seen suggestions from leading producers that supply could be cut soon if customers, seeing ample supply, rising stocks, and slumping refining margins, request lower volumes.
Although the oil market appears to be more relaxed than it was a few weeks ago, and there might be a sense of “mission accomplished” that producers have met the challenge of replacing lost barrels, such is the volatility of events that rising stocks should be welcomed as a form of insurance, rather than a threat. The United States remains committed to reducing Iranian oil exports to zero from the 1.8 mb/d seen today; there are concerns as to the stability of production in Libya, Nigeria and Venezuela; and the tanker collision last week in Norwegian waters, although modest in impact, is another reminder of the vulnerability of the system to accidents.
The response to the call by the IEA and others to increase production is a reminder that the oil industry works best when it works together. Regular contacts between key players are essential in creating understanding, and even though oil diplomacy has succeeded so far this year, it needs to be maintained to ensure market stability.
Source: IEA
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Friday, 11 January 19
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN ARENA HAD A MIXED START; LIMITED ACTION IN SOUTHEAST ASIA - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Dashed hopes summed up the first full week of the New Year. A slow start followed by a busy 24 hours of improving rates and a firming ...
Thursday, 10 January 19
BUNKER DELIVERY NOTE AMENDMENTS ENTER INTO FORCE AS SULPHUR 2020 REQUIREMENT LOOMS - IMO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Amendments to the bunker delivery note relating to the supply of marine fuel oil to ships which have fitted alternative m ...
Thursday, 10 January 19
WORLD TRADE IN THERMAL COAL IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE GROWN BY 1.0 PER CENT IN 2018 - DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRY, AUSTRALIA
World Trade
World trade in thermal coal is estimated to have grown by 1.0 per cent to 1.1 billion tonnes in 2018 but it is expected to decline ...
Thursday, 10 January 19
PAKISTAN'S COAL IMPORTS TO SURGE TO 30 MILLION TONS PER ANNUM BY 2020 - CEO, PIB
Pakistan’s coal imports are estimated to surge to 30 million tons/annum from existing 20 million tons/annum by the year 2020, given the plann ...
Wednesday, 09 January 19
PANAMAX: THE PACIFIC SAW RELATIVELY GOOD DEMAND PARTICULARLY FROM INDONESIA AND NOPAC - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
It was an active start to the New Year, with trading from West Australia maintaining momentum during the holiday period. Rates for Chi ...
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- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The University of Queensland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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