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Thursday, 15 November 18
OIL MARKET REPORT: HEEDING THE WARNINGS - IEA
 In last month’s Report, we noted that since the middle of the year oil supply had increased sharply, with gains in the Middle East, Russia and the United States more than compensating for falls in production in Iran, Venezuela and elsewhere. New data show that the pace has accelerated, and this higher output, in combination with Iranian sanctions waivers issued by the US and steady demand growth, implies a stock build in 4Q18 of 0.7 mb/d. Already, OECD stocks have increased for four months in a row, with products back above the five-year average. In 1H19, based on our outlook for non-OPEC production and global demand, and assuming flat OPEC production (i.e. losses from Iran/Venezuela are offset by others), the implied stock build is currently 2 mb/d.
In the August edition of this Report we described the replacement of Iranian and Venezuelan barrels as “challenging”, and that there was a danger of prices rising too high too fast. Producers have heeded the warnings and more than met the challenge and today, the Big Three, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United States, all see output at record levels. Total non-OPEC production in August, the latest month for which we have consolidated data, was 3.5 mb/d higher than a year ago, with the United States contributing an extraordinary 3.0 mb/d. Russia’s crude output has hit a new record of 11.4 mb/d, with companies suggesting that they could produce even more.
In early October, the price of Brent crude oil reached a four-year high above $86/bbl, reflecting the legitimate fears of market tightness. In our view, this was a dangerous “red zone” and it justified calls for producers to raise output. Today, the price has fallen to a more reasonable level close to $70/bbl, well below where it was in May before the US announced its change of policy on Iran. Lower prices are clearly a benefit to consumers, especially hard-pressed ones in developing countries that are suffering from the additional handicap of weak national currencies. For now, forecasts of oil demand growth remain solid with an increase of 1.3 mb/d this year and an increase to 1.4 mb/d in 2019, even though the macro-economic outlook is uncertain.
We should also recognise the interests of the producers. For many countries, even though their output might have increased, prices falling too far are unwelcome. Ministers from the Vienna Agreement countries will meet in early December, but we have already seen suggestions from leading producers that supply could be cut soon if customers, seeing ample supply, rising stocks, and slumping refining margins, request lower volumes.
Although the oil market appears to be more relaxed than it was a few weeks ago, and there might be a sense of “mission accomplished” that producers have met the challenge of replacing lost barrels, such is the volatility of events that rising stocks should be welcomed as a form of insurance, rather than a threat. The United States remains committed to reducing Iranian oil exports to zero from the 1.8 mb/d seen today; there are concerns as to the stability of production in Libya, Nigeria and Venezuela; and the tanker collision last week in Norwegian waters, although modest in impact, is another reminder of the vulnerability of the system to accidents.
The response to the call by the IEA and others to increase production is a reminder that the oil industry works best when it works together. Regular contacts between key players are essential in creating understanding, and even though oil diplomacy has succeeded so far this year, it needs to be maintained to ensure market stability.
Source: IEA
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Friday, 04 January 19
FOCUS IS ON BOOSTING COAL PRODUCTION: INDIAN COAL MINISTER
The current focus of the government is on boosting production from operational coal mines, according to Minister for Coal, Piyush Goyal.
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Thursday, 03 January 19
CAPESIZE: A MORE POSITIVE START OF THE NEW YEAR THAN EXPECTED FOR THE BIG SHIPS - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
A more positive start of the new year than expected for the big ships, with average gains of US$ 500/day posted on the first tra ...
Tuesday, 01 January 19
INDONESIA: COAL PRODUCTION EXPECTED TO EXCEED THIS YEAR'S TARGET - JP
Indonesian coal production reached 456 million tons up to Thursday or 94.02 percent of this year’s total target of 485 million tons, accordin ...
Monday, 31 December 18
THE INDONESIAN COAL MARKET Q1 '19 FORECAST: LOOKS DIRECTIONLESS - TRADER
The Indonesian coal market looks directionless, an International coal trader said when we asked him to give his forecast for 1Q' 2019.
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Monday, 31 December 18
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND GREW BY 1% IN 2017; GLOBAL COAL POWER GENERATION INCREASED BY OVER 250 TWH - IEA
After two years of decline, global coal demand grew by 1% in 2017 to 7585 Mt as stronger global economic growth increased both industrial output an ...
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- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The University of Queensland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
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