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Thursday, 15 November 18
OIL MARKET REPORT: HEEDING THE WARNINGS - IEA
 In last month’s Report, we noted that since the middle of the year oil supply had increased sharply, with gains in the Middle East, Russia and the United States more than compensating for falls in production in Iran, Venezuela and elsewhere. New data show that the pace has accelerated, and this higher output, in combination with Iranian sanctions waivers issued by the US and steady demand growth, implies a stock build in 4Q18 of 0.7 mb/d. Already, OECD stocks have increased for four months in a row, with products back above the five-year average. In 1H19, based on our outlook for non-OPEC production and global demand, and assuming flat OPEC production (i.e. losses from Iran/Venezuela are offset by others), the implied stock build is currently 2 mb/d.
In the August edition of this Report we described the replacement of Iranian and Venezuelan barrels as “challenging”, and that there was a danger of prices rising too high too fast. Producers have heeded the warnings and more than met the challenge and today, the Big Three, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United States, all see output at record levels. Total non-OPEC production in August, the latest month for which we have consolidated data, was 3.5 mb/d higher than a year ago, with the United States contributing an extraordinary 3.0 mb/d. Russia’s crude output has hit a new record of 11.4 mb/d, with companies suggesting that they could produce even more.
In early October, the price of Brent crude oil reached a four-year high above $86/bbl, reflecting the legitimate fears of market tightness. In our view, this was a dangerous “red zone” and it justified calls for producers to raise output. Today, the price has fallen to a more reasonable level close to $70/bbl, well below where it was in May before the US announced its change of policy on Iran. Lower prices are clearly a benefit to consumers, especially hard-pressed ones in developing countries that are suffering from the additional handicap of weak national currencies. For now, forecasts of oil demand growth remain solid with an increase of 1.3 mb/d this year and an increase to 1.4 mb/d in 2019, even though the macro-economic outlook is uncertain.
We should also recognise the interests of the producers. For many countries, even though their output might have increased, prices falling too far are unwelcome. Ministers from the Vienna Agreement countries will meet in early December, but we have already seen suggestions from leading producers that supply could be cut soon if customers, seeing ample supply, rising stocks, and slumping refining margins, request lower volumes.
Although the oil market appears to be more relaxed than it was a few weeks ago, and there might be a sense of “mission accomplished” that producers have met the challenge of replacing lost barrels, such is the volatility of events that rising stocks should be welcomed as a form of insurance, rather than a threat. The United States remains committed to reducing Iranian oil exports to zero from the 1.8 mb/d seen today; there are concerns as to the stability of production in Libya, Nigeria and Venezuela; and the tanker collision last week in Norwegian waters, although modest in impact, is another reminder of the vulnerability of the system to accidents.
The response to the call by the IEA and others to increase production is a reminder that the oil industry works best when it works together. Regular contacts between key players are essential in creating understanding, and even though oil diplomacy has succeeded so far this year, it needs to be maintained to ensure market stability.
Source: IEA
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Friday, 04 January 19
FOCUS IS ON BOOSTING COAL PRODUCTION: INDIAN COAL MINISTER
The current focus of the government is on boosting production from operational coal mines, according to Minister for Coal, Piyush Goyal.
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Thursday, 03 January 19
CAPESIZE: A MORE POSITIVE START OF THE NEW YEAR THAN EXPECTED FOR THE BIG SHIPS - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
A more positive start of the new year than expected for the big ships, with average gains of US$ 500/day posted on the first tra ...
Tuesday, 01 January 19
INDONESIA: COAL PRODUCTION EXPECTED TO EXCEED THIS YEAR'S TARGET - JP
Indonesian coal production reached 456 million tons up to Thursday or 94.02 percent of this year’s total target of 485 million tons, accordin ...
Monday, 31 December 18
THE INDONESIAN COAL MARKET Q1 '19 FORECAST: LOOKS DIRECTIONLESS - TRADER
The Indonesian coal market looks directionless, an International coal trader said when we asked him to give his forecast for 1Q' 2019.
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Monday, 31 December 18
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND GREW BY 1% IN 2017; GLOBAL COAL POWER GENERATION INCREASED BY OVER 250 TWH - IEA
After two years of decline, global coal demand grew by 1% in 2017 to 7585 Mt as stronger global economic growth increased both industrial output an ...
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- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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