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Thursday, 15 November 18
OIL MARKET REPORT: HEEDING THE WARNINGS - IEA
 In last month’s Report, we noted that since the middle of the year oil supply had increased sharply, with gains in the Middle East, Russia and the United States more than compensating for falls in production in Iran, Venezuela and elsewhere. New data show that the pace has accelerated, and this higher output, in combination with Iranian sanctions waivers issued by the US and steady demand growth, implies a stock build in 4Q18 of 0.7 mb/d. Already, OECD stocks have increased for four months in a row, with products back above the five-year average. In 1H19, based on our outlook for non-OPEC production and global demand, and assuming flat OPEC production (i.e. losses from Iran/Venezuela are offset by others), the implied stock build is currently 2 mb/d.
In the August edition of this Report we described the replacement of Iranian and Venezuelan barrels as “challenging”, and that there was a danger of prices rising too high too fast. Producers have heeded the warnings and more than met the challenge and today, the Big Three, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United States, all see output at record levels. Total non-OPEC production in August, the latest month for which we have consolidated data, was 3.5 mb/d higher than a year ago, with the United States contributing an extraordinary 3.0 mb/d. Russia’s crude output has hit a new record of 11.4 mb/d, with companies suggesting that they could produce even more.
In early October, the price of Brent crude oil reached a four-year high above $86/bbl, reflecting the legitimate fears of market tightness. In our view, this was a dangerous “red zone” and it justified calls for producers to raise output. Today, the price has fallen to a more reasonable level close to $70/bbl, well below where it was in May before the US announced its change of policy on Iran. Lower prices are clearly a benefit to consumers, especially hard-pressed ones in developing countries that are suffering from the additional handicap of weak national currencies. For now, forecasts of oil demand growth remain solid with an increase of 1.3 mb/d this year and an increase to 1.4 mb/d in 2019, even though the macro-economic outlook is uncertain.
We should also recognise the interests of the producers. For many countries, even though their output might have increased, prices falling too far are unwelcome. Ministers from the Vienna Agreement countries will meet in early December, but we have already seen suggestions from leading producers that supply could be cut soon if customers, seeing ample supply, rising stocks, and slumping refining margins, request lower volumes.
Although the oil market appears to be more relaxed than it was a few weeks ago, and there might be a sense of “mission accomplished” that producers have met the challenge of replacing lost barrels, such is the volatility of events that rising stocks should be welcomed as a form of insurance, rather than a threat. The United States remains committed to reducing Iranian oil exports to zero from the 1.8 mb/d seen today; there are concerns as to the stability of production in Libya, Nigeria and Venezuela; and the tanker collision last week in Norwegian waters, although modest in impact, is another reminder of the vulnerability of the system to accidents.
The response to the call by the IEA and others to increase production is a reminder that the oil industry works best when it works together. Regular contacts between key players are essential in creating understanding, and even though oil diplomacy has succeeded so far this year, it needs to be maintained to ensure market stability.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 09 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
Paraphrasing the words of a Chief economist in a latest report of the World Bank Group, the current state of the shipping market very much resemble ...
Tuesday, 08 January 19
GLOBAL TRADE GROWTH EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT HEALTHY IN 2019 - ALLIED
2019 is here and we find ourselves with new challenges for the shipping industry and the global economy as whole, with market prospects being neith ...
Monday, 07 January 19
THE NEWCASTLE BENCHMARK SPOT PRICE IS FORECAST TO DECLINE FROM AN ESTIMATED AVERAGE OF US$105 A TONNE IN 2018 TO US$74 A TONNE IN 2020 - DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRY, AUSTRALIA
• The Newcastle benchmark spot price is forecast to decline from an estimated average of US$105 a tonne in 2018 to US$74 a tonne in 2020, prim ...
Monday, 07 January 19
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT DECLARED COAL BENCHMARK PRICE FALLS FOR FIFTH STRAIGHT MONTH IN JANUARY 2019; LOWEST SINCE JUNE 2018
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Monday, 07 January 19
RUSSIA'S COAL PRODUCTION UP 5.9% TO 433.4 MLN TONNES IN 2018 - TASS
Coal production in Russia in 2018 increased by 5.9% year-on-year to 433.4 mln tonnes, according to the Central Dispatching Department of Fuel Energ ...
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Showing 1501 to 1505 news of total 6871 |
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- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
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