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Thursday, 15 November 18
OIL MARKET REPORT: HEEDING THE WARNINGS - IEA
 In last month’s Report, we noted that since the middle of the year oil supply had increased sharply, with gains in the Middle East, Russia and the United States more than compensating for falls in production in Iran, Venezuela and elsewhere. New data show that the pace has accelerated, and this higher output, in combination with Iranian sanctions waivers issued by the US and steady demand growth, implies a stock build in 4Q18 of 0.7 mb/d. Already, OECD stocks have increased for four months in a row, with products back above the five-year average. In 1H19, based on our outlook for non-OPEC production and global demand, and assuming flat OPEC production (i.e. losses from Iran/Venezuela are offset by others), the implied stock build is currently 2 mb/d.
In the August edition of this Report we described the replacement of Iranian and Venezuelan barrels as “challenging”, and that there was a danger of prices rising too high too fast. Producers have heeded the warnings and more than met the challenge and today, the Big Three, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United States, all see output at record levels. Total non-OPEC production in August, the latest month for which we have consolidated data, was 3.5 mb/d higher than a year ago, with the United States contributing an extraordinary 3.0 mb/d. Russia’s crude output has hit a new record of 11.4 mb/d, with companies suggesting that they could produce even more.
In early October, the price of Brent crude oil reached a four-year high above $86/bbl, reflecting the legitimate fears of market tightness. In our view, this was a dangerous “red zone” and it justified calls for producers to raise output. Today, the price has fallen to a more reasonable level close to $70/bbl, well below where it was in May before the US announced its change of policy on Iran. Lower prices are clearly a benefit to consumers, especially hard-pressed ones in developing countries that are suffering from the additional handicap of weak national currencies. For now, forecasts of oil demand growth remain solid with an increase of 1.3 mb/d this year and an increase to 1.4 mb/d in 2019, even though the macro-economic outlook is uncertain.
We should also recognise the interests of the producers. For many countries, even though their output might have increased, prices falling too far are unwelcome. Ministers from the Vienna Agreement countries will meet in early December, but we have already seen suggestions from leading producers that supply could be cut soon if customers, seeing ample supply, rising stocks, and slumping refining margins, request lower volumes.
Although the oil market appears to be more relaxed than it was a few weeks ago, and there might be a sense of “mission accomplished” that producers have met the challenge of replacing lost barrels, such is the volatility of events that rising stocks should be welcomed as a form of insurance, rather than a threat. The United States remains committed to reducing Iranian oil exports to zero from the 1.8 mb/d seen today; there are concerns as to the stability of production in Libya, Nigeria and Venezuela; and the tanker collision last week in Norwegian waters, although modest in impact, is another reminder of the vulnerability of the system to accidents.
The response to the call by the IEA and others to increase production is a reminder that the oil industry works best when it works together. Regular contacts between key players are essential in creating understanding, and even though oil diplomacy has succeeded so far this year, it needs to be maintained to ensure market stability.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 09 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
Paraphrasing the words of a Chief economist in a latest report of the World Bank Group, the current state of the shipping market very much resemble ...
Tuesday, 08 January 19
GLOBAL TRADE GROWTH EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT HEALTHY IN 2019 - ALLIED
2019 is here and we find ourselves with new challenges for the shipping industry and the global economy as whole, with market prospects being neith ...
Monday, 07 January 19
THE NEWCASTLE BENCHMARK SPOT PRICE IS FORECAST TO DECLINE FROM AN ESTIMATED AVERAGE OF US$105 A TONNE IN 2018 TO US$74 A TONNE IN 2020 - DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRY, AUSTRALIA
• The Newcastle benchmark spot price is forecast to decline from an estimated average of US$105 a tonne in 2018 to US$74 a tonne in 2020, prim ...
Monday, 07 January 19
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT DECLARED COAL BENCHMARK PRICE FALLS FOR FIFTH STRAIGHT MONTH IN JANUARY 2019; LOWEST SINCE JUNE 2018
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Monday, 07 January 19
RUSSIA'S COAL PRODUCTION UP 5.9% TO 433.4 MLN TONNES IN 2018 - TASS
Coal production in Russia in 2018 increased by 5.9% year-on-year to 433.4 mln tonnes, according to the Central Dispatching Department of Fuel Energ ...
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
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