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Thursday, 15 November 18
OIL MARKET REPORT: HEEDING THE WARNINGS - IEA
 In last month’s Report, we noted that since the middle of the year oil supply had increased sharply, with gains in the Middle East, Russia and the United States more than compensating for falls in production in Iran, Venezuela and elsewhere. New data show that the pace has accelerated, and this higher output, in combination with Iranian sanctions waivers issued by the US and steady demand growth, implies a stock build in 4Q18 of 0.7 mb/d. Already, OECD stocks have increased for four months in a row, with products back above the five-year average. In 1H19, based on our outlook for non-OPEC production and global demand, and assuming flat OPEC production (i.e. losses from Iran/Venezuela are offset by others), the implied stock build is currently 2 mb/d.
In the August edition of this Report we described the replacement of Iranian and Venezuelan barrels as “challenging”, and that there was a danger of prices rising too high too fast. Producers have heeded the warnings and more than met the challenge and today, the Big Three, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United States, all see output at record levels. Total non-OPEC production in August, the latest month for which we have consolidated data, was 3.5 mb/d higher than a year ago, with the United States contributing an extraordinary 3.0 mb/d. Russia’s crude output has hit a new record of 11.4 mb/d, with companies suggesting that they could produce even more.
In early October, the price of Brent crude oil reached a four-year high above $86/bbl, reflecting the legitimate fears of market tightness. In our view, this was a dangerous “red zone” and it justified calls for producers to raise output. Today, the price has fallen to a more reasonable level close to $70/bbl, well below where it was in May before the US announced its change of policy on Iran. Lower prices are clearly a benefit to consumers, especially hard-pressed ones in developing countries that are suffering from the additional handicap of weak national currencies. For now, forecasts of oil demand growth remain solid with an increase of 1.3 mb/d this year and an increase to 1.4 mb/d in 2019, even though the macro-economic outlook is uncertain.
We should also recognise the interests of the producers. For many countries, even though their output might have increased, prices falling too far are unwelcome. Ministers from the Vienna Agreement countries will meet in early December, but we have already seen suggestions from leading producers that supply could be cut soon if customers, seeing ample supply, rising stocks, and slumping refining margins, request lower volumes.
Although the oil market appears to be more relaxed than it was a few weeks ago, and there might be a sense of “mission accomplished” that producers have met the challenge of replacing lost barrels, such is the volatility of events that rising stocks should be welcomed as a form of insurance, rather than a threat. The United States remains committed to reducing Iranian oil exports to zero from the 1.8 mb/d seen today; there are concerns as to the stability of production in Libya, Nigeria and Venezuela; and the tanker collision last week in Norwegian waters, although modest in impact, is another reminder of the vulnerability of the system to accidents.
The response to the call by the IEA and others to increase production is a reminder that the oil industry works best when it works together. Regular contacts between key players are essential in creating understanding, and even though oil diplomacy has succeeded so far this year, it needs to be maintained to ensure market stability.
Source: IEA
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Sunday, 20 January 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT - IEA
Last month, we asked if there was a floor under prices following the signing of a new Vienna Agreement that aims to re-balance the oil market. Foll ...
Thursday, 17 January 19
EIA ESTIMATES THAT U.S. COAL EXPORTS WERE 116 MMST IN 2018, 20% HIGHER THAN THE AMOUNT EXPORTED IN 2017
Coal Supply
EIA estimates that coal production declined by 20 million short tons (MMst) (3%) in 2018, despite a 19 MMst increase in U.S. coal e ...
Thursday, 17 January 19
U.S COAL OUTPUT IS EXPECTED TO FALL BY 3 PER CENT IN 2019 - EIA
EIA forecasts that U.S. coal production will total 729 million short tons (MMst) in 2019, down by 25 MMst (3%) from 2018.
Acco ...
Wednesday, 16 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we go through the first days of the year and just a few weeks before the Chinese New Year, the ship repair sector is witnessing a big difference ...
Monday, 14 January 19
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER INVITES BIDS FOR 320,000 MT OF MIN 3,800 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 3,800 kcal/kg NCV coal for ...
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- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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