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Thursday, 15 November 18
OIL MARKET REPORT: HEEDING THE WARNINGS - IEA
 In last month’s Report, we noted that since the middle of the year oil supply had increased sharply, with gains in the Middle East, Russia and the United States more than compensating for falls in production in Iran, Venezuela and elsewhere. New data show that the pace has accelerated, and this higher output, in combination with Iranian sanctions waivers issued by the US and steady demand growth, implies a stock build in 4Q18 of 0.7 mb/d. Already, OECD stocks have increased for four months in a row, with products back above the five-year average. In 1H19, based on our outlook for non-OPEC production and global demand, and assuming flat OPEC production (i.e. losses from Iran/Venezuela are offset by others), the implied stock build is currently 2 mb/d.
In the August edition of this Report we described the replacement of Iranian and Venezuelan barrels as “challenging”, and that there was a danger of prices rising too high too fast. Producers have heeded the warnings and more than met the challenge and today, the Big Three, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United States, all see output at record levels. Total non-OPEC production in August, the latest month for which we have consolidated data, was 3.5 mb/d higher than a year ago, with the United States contributing an extraordinary 3.0 mb/d. Russia’s crude output has hit a new record of 11.4 mb/d, with companies suggesting that they could produce even more.
In early October, the price of Brent crude oil reached a four-year high above $86/bbl, reflecting the legitimate fears of market tightness. In our view, this was a dangerous “red zone” and it justified calls for producers to raise output. Today, the price has fallen to a more reasonable level close to $70/bbl, well below where it was in May before the US announced its change of policy on Iran. Lower prices are clearly a benefit to consumers, especially hard-pressed ones in developing countries that are suffering from the additional handicap of weak national currencies. For now, forecasts of oil demand growth remain solid with an increase of 1.3 mb/d this year and an increase to 1.4 mb/d in 2019, even though the macro-economic outlook is uncertain.
We should also recognise the interests of the producers. For many countries, even though their output might have increased, prices falling too far are unwelcome. Ministers from the Vienna Agreement countries will meet in early December, but we have already seen suggestions from leading producers that supply could be cut soon if customers, seeing ample supply, rising stocks, and slumping refining margins, request lower volumes.
Although the oil market appears to be more relaxed than it was a few weeks ago, and there might be a sense of “mission accomplished” that producers have met the challenge of replacing lost barrels, such is the volatility of events that rising stocks should be welcomed as a form of insurance, rather than a threat. The United States remains committed to reducing Iranian oil exports to zero from the 1.8 mb/d seen today; there are concerns as to the stability of production in Libya, Nigeria and Venezuela; and the tanker collision last week in Norwegian waters, although modest in impact, is another reminder of the vulnerability of the system to accidents.
The response to the call by the IEA and others to increase production is a reminder that the oil industry works best when it works together. Regular contacts between key players are essential in creating understanding, and even though oil diplomacy has succeeded so far this year, it needs to be maintained to ensure market stability.
Source: IEA
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Sunday, 20 January 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT - IEA
Last month, we asked if there was a floor under prices following the signing of a new Vienna Agreement that aims to re-balance the oil market. Foll ...
Thursday, 17 January 19
EIA ESTIMATES THAT U.S. COAL EXPORTS WERE 116 MMST IN 2018, 20% HIGHER THAN THE AMOUNT EXPORTED IN 2017
Coal Supply
EIA estimates that coal production declined by 20 million short tons (MMst) (3%) in 2018, despite a 19 MMst increase in U.S. coal e ...
Thursday, 17 January 19
U.S COAL OUTPUT IS EXPECTED TO FALL BY 3 PER CENT IN 2019 - EIA
EIA forecasts that U.S. coal production will total 729 million short tons (MMst) in 2019, down by 25 MMst (3%) from 2018.
Acco ...
Wednesday, 16 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we go through the first days of the year and just a few weeks before the Chinese New Year, the ship repair sector is witnessing a big difference ...
Monday, 14 January 19
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER INVITES BIDS FOR 320,000 MT OF MIN 3,800 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 3,800 kcal/kg NCV coal for ...
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
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