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Thursday, 15 November 18
OIL MARKET REPORT: HEEDING THE WARNINGS - IEA
 In last month’s Report, we noted that since the middle of the year oil supply had increased sharply, with gains in the Middle East, Russia and the United States more than compensating for falls in production in Iran, Venezuela and elsewhere. New data show that the pace has accelerated, and this higher output, in combination with Iranian sanctions waivers issued by the US and steady demand growth, implies a stock build in 4Q18 of 0.7 mb/d. Already, OECD stocks have increased for four months in a row, with products back above the five-year average. In 1H19, based on our outlook for non-OPEC production and global demand, and assuming flat OPEC production (i.e. losses from Iran/Venezuela are offset by others), the implied stock build is currently 2 mb/d.
In the August edition of this Report we described the replacement of Iranian and Venezuelan barrels as “challenging”, and that there was a danger of prices rising too high too fast. Producers have heeded the warnings and more than met the challenge and today, the Big Three, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United States, all see output at record levels. Total non-OPEC production in August, the latest month for which we have consolidated data, was 3.5 mb/d higher than a year ago, with the United States contributing an extraordinary 3.0 mb/d. Russia’s crude output has hit a new record of 11.4 mb/d, with companies suggesting that they could produce even more.
In early October, the price of Brent crude oil reached a four-year high above $86/bbl, reflecting the legitimate fears of market tightness. In our view, this was a dangerous “red zone” and it justified calls for producers to raise output. Today, the price has fallen to a more reasonable level close to $70/bbl, well below where it was in May before the US announced its change of policy on Iran. Lower prices are clearly a benefit to consumers, especially hard-pressed ones in developing countries that are suffering from the additional handicap of weak national currencies. For now, forecasts of oil demand growth remain solid with an increase of 1.3 mb/d this year and an increase to 1.4 mb/d in 2019, even though the macro-economic outlook is uncertain.
We should also recognise the interests of the producers. For many countries, even though their output might have increased, prices falling too far are unwelcome. Ministers from the Vienna Agreement countries will meet in early December, but we have already seen suggestions from leading producers that supply could be cut soon if customers, seeing ample supply, rising stocks, and slumping refining margins, request lower volumes.
Although the oil market appears to be more relaxed than it was a few weeks ago, and there might be a sense of “mission accomplished” that producers have met the challenge of replacing lost barrels, such is the volatility of events that rising stocks should be welcomed as a form of insurance, rather than a threat. The United States remains committed to reducing Iranian oil exports to zero from the 1.8 mb/d seen today; there are concerns as to the stability of production in Libya, Nigeria and Venezuela; and the tanker collision last week in Norwegian waters, although modest in impact, is another reminder of the vulnerability of the system to accidents.
The response to the call by the IEA and others to increase production is a reminder that the oil industry works best when it works together. Regular contacts between key players are essential in creating understanding, and even though oil diplomacy has succeeded so far this year, it needs to be maintained to ensure market stability.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 22 January 19
9TH GLOBAL MANUFACTURING SUPPLY CHAIN INNOVATION SUMMIT 2019
Rethinking the supply chain in manufacturing is a must at the digital era along with the industry transforming and innovating; new manufacturing is ...
Tuesday, 22 January 19
AUSTRALIA'S YANCOAL PRODUCED 50 MMT SALEABLE COAL IN 2018 UP 59 PER CENT ON THE YEAR PRIOR, THE QUARTERLY REPORT SHOWS
According to the report, the miner's quarterly (Q4' 18) saleable coal production of 12.4 Mmt. Includes 10.5 Mmt (85 per cent) from the Comp ...
Monday, 21 January 19
KOSPO INVITING BIDS FOR 320K MT OF LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 3,800 kcal/kg NCV low calo ...
Monday, 21 January 19
SUPRAMAX: INDONESIAN COAL RUNS, TONNAGE WAS GIVING APS DELIVERIES AND A 57,000DWT SHIP FIXED AT $7,000 FOR A TRIP TO WEST COAST INDIA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A positive end to a week that saw rates on the West Australia/China run slip below $6.00, as charterers faced a plentiful supply ...
Monday, 21 January 19
HARD COAL WORLD TRADE IN 2018 RISES BY 3.7 PER CENT; GLOBAL HARD COAL PRODUCTION INCREASES BY 1.7 PER CENT - VDKI
Global Hard Coal Production Increases By 1.7%.
According to provisional calculations by the German Coal Importer Association (VDKi), ...
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
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