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Thursday, 15 November 18
OIL MARKET REPORT: HEEDING THE WARNINGS - IEA
 In last month’s Report, we noted that since the middle of the year oil supply had increased sharply, with gains in the Middle East, Russia and the United States more than compensating for falls in production in Iran, Venezuela and elsewhere. New data show that the pace has accelerated, and this higher output, in combination with Iranian sanctions waivers issued by the US and steady demand growth, implies a stock build in 4Q18 of 0.7 mb/d. Already, OECD stocks have increased for four months in a row, with products back above the five-year average. In 1H19, based on our outlook for non-OPEC production and global demand, and assuming flat OPEC production (i.e. losses from Iran/Venezuela are offset by others), the implied stock build is currently 2 mb/d.
In the August edition of this Report we described the replacement of Iranian and Venezuelan barrels as “challenging”, and that there was a danger of prices rising too high too fast. Producers have heeded the warnings and more than met the challenge and today, the Big Three, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United States, all see output at record levels. Total non-OPEC production in August, the latest month for which we have consolidated data, was 3.5 mb/d higher than a year ago, with the United States contributing an extraordinary 3.0 mb/d. Russia’s crude output has hit a new record of 11.4 mb/d, with companies suggesting that they could produce even more.
In early October, the price of Brent crude oil reached a four-year high above $86/bbl, reflecting the legitimate fears of market tightness. In our view, this was a dangerous “red zone” and it justified calls for producers to raise output. Today, the price has fallen to a more reasonable level close to $70/bbl, well below where it was in May before the US announced its change of policy on Iran. Lower prices are clearly a benefit to consumers, especially hard-pressed ones in developing countries that are suffering from the additional handicap of weak national currencies. For now, forecasts of oil demand growth remain solid with an increase of 1.3 mb/d this year and an increase to 1.4 mb/d in 2019, even though the macro-economic outlook is uncertain.
We should also recognise the interests of the producers. For many countries, even though their output might have increased, prices falling too far are unwelcome. Ministers from the Vienna Agreement countries will meet in early December, but we have already seen suggestions from leading producers that supply could be cut soon if customers, seeing ample supply, rising stocks, and slumping refining margins, request lower volumes.
Although the oil market appears to be more relaxed than it was a few weeks ago, and there might be a sense of “mission accomplished” that producers have met the challenge of replacing lost barrels, such is the volatility of events that rising stocks should be welcomed as a form of insurance, rather than a threat. The United States remains committed to reducing Iranian oil exports to zero from the 1.8 mb/d seen today; there are concerns as to the stability of production in Libya, Nigeria and Venezuela; and the tanker collision last week in Norwegian waters, although modest in impact, is another reminder of the vulnerability of the system to accidents.
The response to the call by the IEA and others to increase production is a reminder that the oil industry works best when it works together. Regular contacts between key players are essential in creating understanding, and even though oil diplomacy has succeeded so far this year, it needs to be maintained to ensure market stability.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 06 February 19
FEBRUARY 2019 INDONESIA'S COAL REFERENCE PRICE FELL 8.83 PERCENT YOY
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Wednesday, 06 February 19
THE BDI HAS EASED BACK TO 645 BP, ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE AUGUST 2016 - ALLIED
The dry bulk sector is in the doldrums, with most market participants seemingly left utterly perplexed, and simultaneously, in pursuit of any posit ...
Monday, 04 February 19
COAL STILL IN HIGH DEMAND GLOBALLY
Although the world is switching to renewable energy there is still a big demand for coal around the globe.
This is according to Cany ...
Friday, 01 February 19
ULTRAMAX WAS FIXED DELIVERY KALIMANTAN, FOR TRIP TO WEST COAST INDIA AT $7,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Vale dam tragedy sparked a sharp fall in rates across all regions even where tonnage remained tight. The potential loss of product ...
Friday, 01 February 19
SEMBCORP SELECTS NORDEN FOR LONG-TERM INDIAN CONTRACT
NORDEN A/S has signed a 10-year Panamax Contract of Affreightment (COA) with Indian utility firm Sembcorp Energy India Ltd.
From 1 A ...
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- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The University of Queensland
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Coal Association
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
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