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Thursday, 15 November 18
OIL MARKET REPORT: HEEDING THE WARNINGS - IEA
 In last month’s Report, we noted that since the middle of the year oil supply had increased sharply, with gains in the Middle East, Russia and the United States more than compensating for falls in production in Iran, Venezuela and elsewhere. New data show that the pace has accelerated, and this higher output, in combination with Iranian sanctions waivers issued by the US and steady demand growth, implies a stock build in 4Q18 of 0.7 mb/d. Already, OECD stocks have increased for four months in a row, with products back above the five-year average. In 1H19, based on our outlook for non-OPEC production and global demand, and assuming flat OPEC production (i.e. losses from Iran/Venezuela are offset by others), the implied stock build is currently 2 mb/d.
In the August edition of this Report we described the replacement of Iranian and Venezuelan barrels as “challenging”, and that there was a danger of prices rising too high too fast. Producers have heeded the warnings and more than met the challenge and today, the Big Three, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United States, all see output at record levels. Total non-OPEC production in August, the latest month for which we have consolidated data, was 3.5 mb/d higher than a year ago, with the United States contributing an extraordinary 3.0 mb/d. Russia’s crude output has hit a new record of 11.4 mb/d, with companies suggesting that they could produce even more.
In early October, the price of Brent crude oil reached a four-year high above $86/bbl, reflecting the legitimate fears of market tightness. In our view, this was a dangerous “red zone” and it justified calls for producers to raise output. Today, the price has fallen to a more reasonable level close to $70/bbl, well below where it was in May before the US announced its change of policy on Iran. Lower prices are clearly a benefit to consumers, especially hard-pressed ones in developing countries that are suffering from the additional handicap of weak national currencies. For now, forecasts of oil demand growth remain solid with an increase of 1.3 mb/d this year and an increase to 1.4 mb/d in 2019, even though the macro-economic outlook is uncertain.
We should also recognise the interests of the producers. For many countries, even though their output might have increased, prices falling too far are unwelcome. Ministers from the Vienna Agreement countries will meet in early December, but we have already seen suggestions from leading producers that supply could be cut soon if customers, seeing ample supply, rising stocks, and slumping refining margins, request lower volumes.
Although the oil market appears to be more relaxed than it was a few weeks ago, and there might be a sense of “mission accomplished” that producers have met the challenge of replacing lost barrels, such is the volatility of events that rising stocks should be welcomed as a form of insurance, rather than a threat. The United States remains committed to reducing Iranian oil exports to zero from the 1.8 mb/d seen today; there are concerns as to the stability of production in Libya, Nigeria and Venezuela; and the tanker collision last week in Norwegian waters, although modest in impact, is another reminder of the vulnerability of the system to accidents.
The response to the call by the IEA and others to increase production is a reminder that the oil industry works best when it works together. Regular contacts between key players are essential in creating understanding, and even though oil diplomacy has succeeded so far this year, it needs to be maintained to ensure market stability.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 13 February 19
MALAYSIA WAS THE REGION'S LARGEST COAL IMPORTER WITH 34 MT IN 2018, UP 25% Y-O-Y
Although coal market in 2018 started with strong prices, starting in the beginning of the second half of 2018, the international spot prices for co ...
Wednesday, 13 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
If there is one word that can describe the current shipping environment then that this word is most probably “volatility.” The sentimen ...
Saturday, 09 February 19
SUPRAMAX: A 63,000-TONNER WAS REPORTED FIXED DELIVERY FOR AN EAST KALIMANTAN TRIP, REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA, AT $9,250 - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Cape
The Vale disaster weighed heavily on the market for big ships, with uncertainty about shipments/future exports leading to a sharp drop in ...
Friday, 08 February 19
LOWER-QUALITY INDONESIA EXPORTS ROSE 39 MT IN 2018 YOY PRIMARILY IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED DEMAND FROM CHINA AND INDIA - PEABODY
"Underlying seaborne met and thermal coal conditions remain quite positive and the pace of U.S. coal-fueled power plant retirements is expecte ...
Thursday, 07 February 19
QATAR CAN GAIN FROM DECLINING COAL - THE PENINSULA
With North America and Europe closing down their old coal and nuclear plants, major gas exporters like Qatar can and should gain market share. With ...
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Showing 1471 to 1475 news of total 6871 |
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
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