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Thursday, 15 November 18
OIL MARKET REPORT: HEEDING THE WARNINGS - IEA
 In last month’s Report, we noted that since the middle of the year oil supply had increased sharply, with gains in the Middle East, Russia and the United States more than compensating for falls in production in Iran, Venezuela and elsewhere. New data show that the pace has accelerated, and this higher output, in combination with Iranian sanctions waivers issued by the US and steady demand growth, implies a stock build in 4Q18 of 0.7 mb/d. Already, OECD stocks have increased for four months in a row, with products back above the five-year average. In 1H19, based on our outlook for non-OPEC production and global demand, and assuming flat OPEC production (i.e. losses from Iran/Venezuela are offset by others), the implied stock build is currently 2 mb/d.
In the August edition of this Report we described the replacement of Iranian and Venezuelan barrels as “challenging”, and that there was a danger of prices rising too high too fast. Producers have heeded the warnings and more than met the challenge and today, the Big Three, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United States, all see output at record levels. Total non-OPEC production in August, the latest month for which we have consolidated data, was 3.5 mb/d higher than a year ago, with the United States contributing an extraordinary 3.0 mb/d. Russia’s crude output has hit a new record of 11.4 mb/d, with companies suggesting that they could produce even more.
In early October, the price of Brent crude oil reached a four-year high above $86/bbl, reflecting the legitimate fears of market tightness. In our view, this was a dangerous “red zone” and it justified calls for producers to raise output. Today, the price has fallen to a more reasonable level close to $70/bbl, well below where it was in May before the US announced its change of policy on Iran. Lower prices are clearly a benefit to consumers, especially hard-pressed ones in developing countries that are suffering from the additional handicap of weak national currencies. For now, forecasts of oil demand growth remain solid with an increase of 1.3 mb/d this year and an increase to 1.4 mb/d in 2019, even though the macro-economic outlook is uncertain.
We should also recognise the interests of the producers. For many countries, even though their output might have increased, prices falling too far are unwelcome. Ministers from the Vienna Agreement countries will meet in early December, but we have already seen suggestions from leading producers that supply could be cut soon if customers, seeing ample supply, rising stocks, and slumping refining margins, request lower volumes.
Although the oil market appears to be more relaxed than it was a few weeks ago, and there might be a sense of “mission accomplished” that producers have met the challenge of replacing lost barrels, such is the volatility of events that rising stocks should be welcomed as a form of insurance, rather than a threat. The United States remains committed to reducing Iranian oil exports to zero from the 1.8 mb/d seen today; there are concerns as to the stability of production in Libya, Nigeria and Venezuela; and the tanker collision last week in Norwegian waters, although modest in impact, is another reminder of the vulnerability of the system to accidents.
The response to the call by the IEA and others to increase production is a reminder that the oil industry works best when it works together. Regular contacts between key players are essential in creating understanding, and even though oil diplomacy has succeeded so far this year, it needs to be maintained to ensure market stability.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 26 February 19
CHINA RESTRICTS SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS - WOOD MACKENZIE
In response to news on China's Dalian port restricting seaborne coal imports, Wood Mackenzie's experts provide the following commentary.
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Tuesday, 26 February 19
THE RELATIVELY DISAPPOINTING SCENE PORTRAYED IN THE DRY BULK MARKET RIGHT NOW - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
The relatively disappointing scene portrayed in the dry bulk market right now (especially in the Capesize segment) is undoubtedly one of the prevai ...
Friday, 22 February 19
AUSTRALIAN HIGH CV THERMAL COAL PRICES AT 19-MONTH LOW, BUT NOT FOR LONG - WOOD MACKENZIE
The benchmark Newcastle high energy thermal coal price has fallen from US$100/tonne at the turn of the new year to US$88/tonne. Thermal coal has be ...
Wednesday, 20 February 19
EFFECTIVE NOTICES OF ARBITRATION - AVOIDING WASTED COSTS AND A POTENTIALLY TIME-BARRED CLAIM
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In a recent case, The Amity [2017], charterers successfully set aside an arbitration award on the basis that ow ...
Wednesday, 20 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
Market experts mostly agree that the recent dry bulk market downtrend was caused by seasonal slowdown amid the Chinese New Year celebrations in com ...
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Showing 1461 to 1465 news of total 6871 |
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- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The University of Queensland
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
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