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Thursday, 15 November 18
OIL MARKET REPORT: HEEDING THE WARNINGS - IEA
 In last month’s Report, we noted that since the middle of the year oil supply had increased sharply, with gains in the Middle East, Russia and the United States more than compensating for falls in production in Iran, Venezuela and elsewhere. New data show that the pace has accelerated, and this higher output, in combination with Iranian sanctions waivers issued by the US and steady demand growth, implies a stock build in 4Q18 of 0.7 mb/d. Already, OECD stocks have increased for four months in a row, with products back above the five-year average. In 1H19, based on our outlook for non-OPEC production and global demand, and assuming flat OPEC production (i.e. losses from Iran/Venezuela are offset by others), the implied stock build is currently 2 mb/d.
In the August edition of this Report we described the replacement of Iranian and Venezuelan barrels as “challenging”, and that there was a danger of prices rising too high too fast. Producers have heeded the warnings and more than met the challenge and today, the Big Three, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United States, all see output at record levels. Total non-OPEC production in August, the latest month for which we have consolidated data, was 3.5 mb/d higher than a year ago, with the United States contributing an extraordinary 3.0 mb/d. Russia’s crude output has hit a new record of 11.4 mb/d, with companies suggesting that they could produce even more.
In early October, the price of Brent crude oil reached a four-year high above $86/bbl, reflecting the legitimate fears of market tightness. In our view, this was a dangerous “red zone” and it justified calls for producers to raise output. Today, the price has fallen to a more reasonable level close to $70/bbl, well below where it was in May before the US announced its change of policy on Iran. Lower prices are clearly a benefit to consumers, especially hard-pressed ones in developing countries that are suffering from the additional handicap of weak national currencies. For now, forecasts of oil demand growth remain solid with an increase of 1.3 mb/d this year and an increase to 1.4 mb/d in 2019, even though the macro-economic outlook is uncertain.
We should also recognise the interests of the producers. For many countries, even though their output might have increased, prices falling too far are unwelcome. Ministers from the Vienna Agreement countries will meet in early December, but we have already seen suggestions from leading producers that supply could be cut soon if customers, seeing ample supply, rising stocks, and slumping refining margins, request lower volumes.
Although the oil market appears to be more relaxed than it was a few weeks ago, and there might be a sense of “mission accomplished” that producers have met the challenge of replacing lost barrels, such is the volatility of events that rising stocks should be welcomed as a form of insurance, rather than a threat. The United States remains committed to reducing Iranian oil exports to zero from the 1.8 mb/d seen today; there are concerns as to the stability of production in Libya, Nigeria and Venezuela; and the tanker collision last week in Norwegian waters, although modest in impact, is another reminder of the vulnerability of the system to accidents.
The response to the call by the IEA and others to increase production is a reminder that the oil industry works best when it works together. Regular contacts between key players are essential in creating understanding, and even though oil diplomacy has succeeded so far this year, it needs to be maintained to ensure market stability.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 19 February 19
AUSTRALIA'S COAL FUTURE UNDER THREAT AS MORE CHANGES HIT FOSSIL FUELS GLOBALLY - ABC
Two disparate decisions from opposite corners of the world have sounded warnings for the future of Australia’s coal industry.
...
Tuesday, 19 February 19
FAST DEPLETING COAL RESERVES COULD PUSH UP ENERGY PRICES, CAUTIONS EXPERT - THE HINDU BUSINESS LINE
The fast depletion of coal, a strategic resource and India’s fuel of choice currently, has huge implications for energy costs, according to K ...
Monday, 18 February 19
INDIA'S COAL IMPORT FALLS TO 17.25 MT IN JANUARY - PTI
Coal imports saw a decline in January FY 2019 to 17.25 MT from 19.59 MT in the same month of the previous fiscal, according to a report by mjunctio ...
Monday, 18 February 19
THE ROLE OF COAL IN INDIA'S ENERGY AMBITIONS - WCA
India is the world’s second most populous country and figures among the world’s most rapidly growing economies.
The Sout ...
Saturday, 16 February 19
COALTRANS CHINA 2019, CHINA'S LARGEST COAL INDUSTRY GATHERING
Press Release: Coaltrans China 2019 | With the import ban likely to be lifted, it’s time for you to meet your potentia ...
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- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Planning Commission, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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