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Thursday, 15 November 18
OIL MARKET REPORT: HEEDING THE WARNINGS - IEA
 In last month’s Report, we noted that since the middle of the year oil supply had increased sharply, with gains in the Middle East, Russia and the United States more than compensating for falls in production in Iran, Venezuela and elsewhere. New data show that the pace has accelerated, and this higher output, in combination with Iranian sanctions waivers issued by the US and steady demand growth, implies a stock build in 4Q18 of 0.7 mb/d. Already, OECD stocks have increased for four months in a row, with products back above the five-year average. In 1H19, based on our outlook for non-OPEC production and global demand, and assuming flat OPEC production (i.e. losses from Iran/Venezuela are offset by others), the implied stock build is currently 2 mb/d.
In the August edition of this Report we described the replacement of Iranian and Venezuelan barrels as “challenging”, and that there was a danger of prices rising too high too fast. Producers have heeded the warnings and more than met the challenge and today, the Big Three, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United States, all see output at record levels. Total non-OPEC production in August, the latest month for which we have consolidated data, was 3.5 mb/d higher than a year ago, with the United States contributing an extraordinary 3.0 mb/d. Russia’s crude output has hit a new record of 11.4 mb/d, with companies suggesting that they could produce even more.
In early October, the price of Brent crude oil reached a four-year high above $86/bbl, reflecting the legitimate fears of market tightness. In our view, this was a dangerous “red zone” and it justified calls for producers to raise output. Today, the price has fallen to a more reasonable level close to $70/bbl, well below where it was in May before the US announced its change of policy on Iran. Lower prices are clearly a benefit to consumers, especially hard-pressed ones in developing countries that are suffering from the additional handicap of weak national currencies. For now, forecasts of oil demand growth remain solid with an increase of 1.3 mb/d this year and an increase to 1.4 mb/d in 2019, even though the macro-economic outlook is uncertain.
We should also recognise the interests of the producers. For many countries, even though their output might have increased, prices falling too far are unwelcome. Ministers from the Vienna Agreement countries will meet in early December, but we have already seen suggestions from leading producers that supply could be cut soon if customers, seeing ample supply, rising stocks, and slumping refining margins, request lower volumes.
Although the oil market appears to be more relaxed than it was a few weeks ago, and there might be a sense of “mission accomplished” that producers have met the challenge of replacing lost barrels, such is the volatility of events that rising stocks should be welcomed as a form of insurance, rather than a threat. The United States remains committed to reducing Iranian oil exports to zero from the 1.8 mb/d seen today; there are concerns as to the stability of production in Libya, Nigeria and Venezuela; and the tanker collision last week in Norwegian waters, although modest in impact, is another reminder of the vulnerability of the system to accidents.
The response to the call by the IEA and others to increase production is a reminder that the oil industry works best when it works together. Regular contacts between key players are essential in creating understanding, and even though oil diplomacy has succeeded so far this year, it needs to be maintained to ensure market stability.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 29 January 19
HARD COAL BEARS THE BRUNT OF THE RECOMMENDATIONS OF THE COMMISSION GROWTH STRUCTURAL CHANGE AND EMPLOYMENT - VDKI
Press Release: Hard coal bears the brunt of the recommendations of the Commission Growth Structural change and employment.
In its fi ...
Tuesday, 29 January 19
CHINA HAS BEEN THE TOP DRIVER OF GLOBAL GROWTH FOR NEARLY TWO DECADES - ALLIED
China has been the top driver of global growth for nearly two decades now, pushing demand for seaborne trade and being the key influencer for deman ...
Saturday, 26 January 19
SUPRAMAX: NICKEL ORE RUNS SAW A 56K DWT VESSEL, DELIVERY PHILIPPINES, FIXED FOR A TRIP TO CHINA AT $6K - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A week of dashed hopes for owners as the optimism evident the previous week evaporated. Rates slipped on all routes and underlying thr ...
Thursday, 24 January 19
ANOTHER DISAPPOINTING WEEK FOR PANAMAX OWNERS; MARKET CONTINUES DOWN IN BOTH BASINS - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
The week has been marked by low activity and dropping rates in both basins. As usual, supply additions have increased at the beginning ...
Thursday, 24 January 19
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER INVITED BIDS FOR 960K MT OF 4600 NCV COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 4,600 kcal/kg NCV low calo ...
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- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PTC India Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
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