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Thursday, 15 November 18
OIL MARKET REPORT: HEEDING THE WARNINGS - IEA
 In last month’s Report, we noted that since the middle of the year oil supply had increased sharply, with gains in the Middle East, Russia and the United States more than compensating for falls in production in Iran, Venezuela and elsewhere. New data show that the pace has accelerated, and this higher output, in combination with Iranian sanctions waivers issued by the US and steady demand growth, implies a stock build in 4Q18 of 0.7 mb/d. Already, OECD stocks have increased for four months in a row, with products back above the five-year average. In 1H19, based on our outlook for non-OPEC production and global demand, and assuming flat OPEC production (i.e. losses from Iran/Venezuela are offset by others), the implied stock build is currently 2 mb/d.
In the August edition of this Report we described the replacement of Iranian and Venezuelan barrels as “challenging”, and that there was a danger of prices rising too high too fast. Producers have heeded the warnings and more than met the challenge and today, the Big Three, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United States, all see output at record levels. Total non-OPEC production in August, the latest month for which we have consolidated data, was 3.5 mb/d higher than a year ago, with the United States contributing an extraordinary 3.0 mb/d. Russia’s crude output has hit a new record of 11.4 mb/d, with companies suggesting that they could produce even more.
In early October, the price of Brent crude oil reached a four-year high above $86/bbl, reflecting the legitimate fears of market tightness. In our view, this was a dangerous “red zone” and it justified calls for producers to raise output. Today, the price has fallen to a more reasonable level close to $70/bbl, well below where it was in May before the US announced its change of policy on Iran. Lower prices are clearly a benefit to consumers, especially hard-pressed ones in developing countries that are suffering from the additional handicap of weak national currencies. For now, forecasts of oil demand growth remain solid with an increase of 1.3 mb/d this year and an increase to 1.4 mb/d in 2019, even though the macro-economic outlook is uncertain.
We should also recognise the interests of the producers. For many countries, even though their output might have increased, prices falling too far are unwelcome. Ministers from the Vienna Agreement countries will meet in early December, but we have already seen suggestions from leading producers that supply could be cut soon if customers, seeing ample supply, rising stocks, and slumping refining margins, request lower volumes.
Although the oil market appears to be more relaxed than it was a few weeks ago, and there might be a sense of “mission accomplished” that producers have met the challenge of replacing lost barrels, such is the volatility of events that rising stocks should be welcomed as a form of insurance, rather than a threat. The United States remains committed to reducing Iranian oil exports to zero from the 1.8 mb/d seen today; there are concerns as to the stability of production in Libya, Nigeria and Venezuela; and the tanker collision last week in Norwegian waters, although modest in impact, is another reminder of the vulnerability of the system to accidents.
The response to the call by the IEA and others to increase production is a reminder that the oil industry works best when it works together. Regular contacts between key players are essential in creating understanding, and even though oil diplomacy has succeeded so far this year, it needs to be maintained to ensure market stability.
Source: IEA
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Saturday, 06 April 19
AUSTRALIA COAL POSTS BIGGEST WEEKLY DROP IN A DECADE AMID WEAK DEMAND - REUTERS
Australian thermal coal prices this week registered their biggest weekly fall since the financial market turmoil of a decade ago as demand plunged ...
Saturday, 06 April 19
SUPRAMAX: IT WAS A POOR WEEK OVERALL FOR THE BALTIC SUPRAMAX INDEX, WHICH LOST GROUND - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market over the past week looked to have found a floor on Tuesday with the BCI 5TC at $3460 before firming into the rest ...
Thursday, 04 April 19
OVERSUPPLY STILL MAJOR CHALLENGE WARNS ICS
Speaking in Istanbul, Simon Bennett, Deputy Secretary General of the International Chamber of Shipping (ICS) warned that avoiding overcapacity and ...
Thursday, 04 April 19
GLENCORE, TOHOKU ELECTRIC SET COAL CONTRACT PRICE AT $94.75/T - SOURCE, REUTERS REPORTED
Global miner Glencore and Japan’s Tohoku Electric Power agreed on a price of $94.75 per tonne for supplies of thermal coal from Australia for ...
Monday, 01 April 19
FORCE MAJEURE SUCCESS NOT A SEA CHANGE - BALTIC EXCHANGE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
It is difficult to successfully argue that contractual performance has been prevented or delayed by force majeure. This i ...
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- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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