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Thursday, 15 November 18
OIL MARKET REPORT: HEEDING THE WARNINGS - IEA
 In last month’s Report, we noted that since the middle of the year oil supply had increased sharply, with gains in the Middle East, Russia and the United States more than compensating for falls in production in Iran, Venezuela and elsewhere. New data show that the pace has accelerated, and this higher output, in combination with Iranian sanctions waivers issued by the US and steady demand growth, implies a stock build in 4Q18 of 0.7 mb/d. Already, OECD stocks have increased for four months in a row, with products back above the five-year average. In 1H19, based on our outlook for non-OPEC production and global demand, and assuming flat OPEC production (i.e. losses from Iran/Venezuela are offset by others), the implied stock build is currently 2 mb/d.
In the August edition of this Report we described the replacement of Iranian and Venezuelan barrels as “challenging”, and that there was a danger of prices rising too high too fast. Producers have heeded the warnings and more than met the challenge and today, the Big Three, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United States, all see output at record levels. Total non-OPEC production in August, the latest month for which we have consolidated data, was 3.5 mb/d higher than a year ago, with the United States contributing an extraordinary 3.0 mb/d. Russia’s crude output has hit a new record of 11.4 mb/d, with companies suggesting that they could produce even more.
In early October, the price of Brent crude oil reached a four-year high above $86/bbl, reflecting the legitimate fears of market tightness. In our view, this was a dangerous “red zone” and it justified calls for producers to raise output. Today, the price has fallen to a more reasonable level close to $70/bbl, well below where it was in May before the US announced its change of policy on Iran. Lower prices are clearly a benefit to consumers, especially hard-pressed ones in developing countries that are suffering from the additional handicap of weak national currencies. For now, forecasts of oil demand growth remain solid with an increase of 1.3 mb/d this year and an increase to 1.4 mb/d in 2019, even though the macro-economic outlook is uncertain.
We should also recognise the interests of the producers. For many countries, even though their output might have increased, prices falling too far are unwelcome. Ministers from the Vienna Agreement countries will meet in early December, but we have already seen suggestions from leading producers that supply could be cut soon if customers, seeing ample supply, rising stocks, and slumping refining margins, request lower volumes.
Although the oil market appears to be more relaxed than it was a few weeks ago, and there might be a sense of “mission accomplished” that producers have met the challenge of replacing lost barrels, such is the volatility of events that rising stocks should be welcomed as a form of insurance, rather than a threat. The United States remains committed to reducing Iranian oil exports to zero from the 1.8 mb/d seen today; there are concerns as to the stability of production in Libya, Nigeria and Venezuela; and the tanker collision last week in Norwegian waters, although modest in impact, is another reminder of the vulnerability of the system to accidents.
The response to the call by the IEA and others to increase production is a reminder that the oil industry works best when it works together. Regular contacts between key players are essential in creating understanding, and even though oil diplomacy has succeeded so far this year, it needs to be maintained to ensure market stability.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 10 April 19
KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR 160K MT OF MIN. 3700 NCV COAL FOR JUNE LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 160,000 MT of min. 3,800 Kcal/kg ~max.4,100 ...
Wednesday, 10 April 19
CHINA'S GROWING THERMAL COAL SUPPLY TO PRESSURE EXPORTERS - FITCH RATINGS
Growing Chinese thermal coal supply is likely to lead to further tightening of import controls by the government, putting pressure on seaborne coal ...
Wednesday, 10 April 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The tragedy in Brazil’s Vale Brumadinho where a tailings dam collapsed in January ranks among the world’s worst mining disasters. It co ...
Monday, 08 April 19
5TH INDIA NUCLEAR NEW BUILD CONGRESS 2019
5th India Nuclear New Build Congress 2019
The congress in Mumbai aims to bring together representatives from governments, regulators ...
Monday, 08 April 19
THERMAL COAL PRICES FALL, INDIAN POWER PLANTS TO SEE LIMITED GAINS - BUSINESS STANDARD
Thermal coal prices are on a downward spiral globally. Australian coal prices have fallen nearly 20 per cent in the past week, and 40 per cent from ...
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
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