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Thursday, 15 November 18
OIL MARKET REPORT: HEEDING THE WARNINGS - IEA
 In last month’s Report, we noted that since the middle of the year oil supply had increased sharply, with gains in the Middle East, Russia and the United States more than compensating for falls in production in Iran, Venezuela and elsewhere. New data show that the pace has accelerated, and this higher output, in combination with Iranian sanctions waivers issued by the US and steady demand growth, implies a stock build in 4Q18 of 0.7 mb/d. Already, OECD stocks have increased for four months in a row, with products back above the five-year average. In 1H19, based on our outlook for non-OPEC production and global demand, and assuming flat OPEC production (i.e. losses from Iran/Venezuela are offset by others), the implied stock build is currently 2 mb/d.
In the August edition of this Report we described the replacement of Iranian and Venezuelan barrels as “challenging”, and that there was a danger of prices rising too high too fast. Producers have heeded the warnings and more than met the challenge and today, the Big Three, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United States, all see output at record levels. Total non-OPEC production in August, the latest month for which we have consolidated data, was 3.5 mb/d higher than a year ago, with the United States contributing an extraordinary 3.0 mb/d. Russia’s crude output has hit a new record of 11.4 mb/d, with companies suggesting that they could produce even more.
In early October, the price of Brent crude oil reached a four-year high above $86/bbl, reflecting the legitimate fears of market tightness. In our view, this was a dangerous “red zone” and it justified calls for producers to raise output. Today, the price has fallen to a more reasonable level close to $70/bbl, well below where it was in May before the US announced its change of policy on Iran. Lower prices are clearly a benefit to consumers, especially hard-pressed ones in developing countries that are suffering from the additional handicap of weak national currencies. For now, forecasts of oil demand growth remain solid with an increase of 1.3 mb/d this year and an increase to 1.4 mb/d in 2019, even though the macro-economic outlook is uncertain.
We should also recognise the interests of the producers. For many countries, even though their output might have increased, prices falling too far are unwelcome. Ministers from the Vienna Agreement countries will meet in early December, but we have already seen suggestions from leading producers that supply could be cut soon if customers, seeing ample supply, rising stocks, and slumping refining margins, request lower volumes.
Although the oil market appears to be more relaxed than it was a few weeks ago, and there might be a sense of “mission accomplished” that producers have met the challenge of replacing lost barrels, such is the volatility of events that rising stocks should be welcomed as a form of insurance, rather than a threat. The United States remains committed to reducing Iranian oil exports to zero from the 1.8 mb/d seen today; there are concerns as to the stability of production in Libya, Nigeria and Venezuela; and the tanker collision last week in Norwegian waters, although modest in impact, is another reminder of the vulnerability of the system to accidents.
The response to the call by the IEA and others to increase production is a reminder that the oil industry works best when it works together. Regular contacts between key players are essential in creating understanding, and even though oil diplomacy has succeeded so far this year, it needs to be maintained to ensure market stability.
Source: IEA
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Monday, 08 April 19
CHEAP COAL SWELLS IN SOUTHEAST ASIA, FOILING GLOBAL GREEN PUSH - NIKKEI
Southeast Asian countries are turning to low-cost coal to satisfy their surging electricity demand as the West shies away from the fossil fuel unde ...
Monday, 08 April 19
SULPHUR 2020 - COUNTDOWN TO THE SWITCHOVER - LLOYD'S REGISTER
Sulphur 2020 (MARPOL Annex VI Reg. 14.1.3) is still dominating headlines and as we draw closer to the 1 January 2020 deadline it’s clear that ...
Monday, 08 April 19
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE PRICE PLUMMETS TO LOW NOT SEEN SINCE AUGUST 2017
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Sunday, 07 April 19
SHIP PASSAGE PLANS - NO ROOM FOR ERROR! - WATSON FARLEY & WILLIAMS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The English High Court’s judgment in Alize 1954 v Allianz Elementar Versicherungs AG (The CMA CGM Libra) is an impo ...
Sunday, 07 April 19
IMO 2020: READY OR NOT? - WOOD MACKENZIE
New Year’s Day 2020 is firmly marked in the calendar as the refining and shipping industries prepare for change.
The International Marit ...
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- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The University of Queensland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
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