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Thursday, 15 November 18
OIL MARKET REPORT: HEEDING THE WARNINGS - IEA
 In last month’s Report, we noted that since the middle of the year oil supply had increased sharply, with gains in the Middle East, Russia and the United States more than compensating for falls in production in Iran, Venezuela and elsewhere. New data show that the pace has accelerated, and this higher output, in combination with Iranian sanctions waivers issued by the US and steady demand growth, implies a stock build in 4Q18 of 0.7 mb/d. Already, OECD stocks have increased for four months in a row, with products back above the five-year average. In 1H19, based on our outlook for non-OPEC production and global demand, and assuming flat OPEC production (i.e. losses from Iran/Venezuela are offset by others), the implied stock build is currently 2 mb/d.
In the August edition of this Report we described the replacement of Iranian and Venezuelan barrels as “challenging”, and that there was a danger of prices rising too high too fast. Producers have heeded the warnings and more than met the challenge and today, the Big Three, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United States, all see output at record levels. Total non-OPEC production in August, the latest month for which we have consolidated data, was 3.5 mb/d higher than a year ago, with the United States contributing an extraordinary 3.0 mb/d. Russia’s crude output has hit a new record of 11.4 mb/d, with companies suggesting that they could produce even more.
In early October, the price of Brent crude oil reached a four-year high above $86/bbl, reflecting the legitimate fears of market tightness. In our view, this was a dangerous “red zone” and it justified calls for producers to raise output. Today, the price has fallen to a more reasonable level close to $70/bbl, well below where it was in May before the US announced its change of policy on Iran. Lower prices are clearly a benefit to consumers, especially hard-pressed ones in developing countries that are suffering from the additional handicap of weak national currencies. For now, forecasts of oil demand growth remain solid with an increase of 1.3 mb/d this year and an increase to 1.4 mb/d in 2019, even though the macro-economic outlook is uncertain.
We should also recognise the interests of the producers. For many countries, even though their output might have increased, prices falling too far are unwelcome. Ministers from the Vienna Agreement countries will meet in early December, but we have already seen suggestions from leading producers that supply could be cut soon if customers, seeing ample supply, rising stocks, and slumping refining margins, request lower volumes.
Although the oil market appears to be more relaxed than it was a few weeks ago, and there might be a sense of “mission accomplished” that producers have met the challenge of replacing lost barrels, such is the volatility of events that rising stocks should be welcomed as a form of insurance, rather than a threat. The United States remains committed to reducing Iranian oil exports to zero from the 1.8 mb/d seen today; there are concerns as to the stability of production in Libya, Nigeria and Venezuela; and the tanker collision last week in Norwegian waters, although modest in impact, is another reminder of the vulnerability of the system to accidents.
The response to the call by the IEA and others to increase production is a reminder that the oil industry works best when it works together. Regular contacts between key players are essential in creating understanding, and even though oil diplomacy has succeeded so far this year, it needs to be maintained to ensure market stability.
Source: IEA
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Monday, 01 April 19
AUSTRALIAN COAL AT RISK FROM CHINA MOVE, WARNS GOVERNMENT REPORT - SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
A new government report warns China’s restrictions on coal imports is the number one risk for Australian coal this year and could lead to a s ...
Saturday, 30 March 19
KOEN INVITES BIDS FOR 450,000 TONS OF (SUB) BITUMINOUS COAL FOR H1 AND JUNE 2019
South Korea state-owned utility KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) issued a tender for total 450,000 MT of min. 4300, 3500 and 5600 NCV ...
Wednesday, 27 March 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Contrary to the December 2018 forecasts but in line with the expectations of the dry bulk market, the first quarter of the year closed negatively. ...
Saturday, 23 March 19
IT WAS A POSITIVE WEEK FOR THE HANDY SIZE MARKET - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The big ships endured heavy losses last week extinguishing any hopes from the recent minor rally. Negative sentiment gained pace throu ...
Friday, 22 March 19
CHINA MARKET: COAL OUT IN THE COLD - BUSINESS RECORDER
Though China maintains there is no ban, China-bound Australian coal shipments are looking for a new home. For the past few months, coal cargoes are ...
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Australian Coal Association
- Planning Commission, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
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