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Thursday, 15 November 18
OIL MARKET REPORT: HEEDING THE WARNINGS - IEA
 In last month’s Report, we noted that since the middle of the year oil supply had increased sharply, with gains in the Middle East, Russia and the United States more than compensating for falls in production in Iran, Venezuela and elsewhere. New data show that the pace has accelerated, and this higher output, in combination with Iranian sanctions waivers issued by the US and steady demand growth, implies a stock build in 4Q18 of 0.7 mb/d. Already, OECD stocks have increased for four months in a row, with products back above the five-year average. In 1H19, based on our outlook for non-OPEC production and global demand, and assuming flat OPEC production (i.e. losses from Iran/Venezuela are offset by others), the implied stock build is currently 2 mb/d.
In the August edition of this Report we described the replacement of Iranian and Venezuelan barrels as “challenging”, and that there was a danger of prices rising too high too fast. Producers have heeded the warnings and more than met the challenge and today, the Big Three, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United States, all see output at record levels. Total non-OPEC production in August, the latest month for which we have consolidated data, was 3.5 mb/d higher than a year ago, with the United States contributing an extraordinary 3.0 mb/d. Russia’s crude output has hit a new record of 11.4 mb/d, with companies suggesting that they could produce even more.
In early October, the price of Brent crude oil reached a four-year high above $86/bbl, reflecting the legitimate fears of market tightness. In our view, this was a dangerous “red zone” and it justified calls for producers to raise output. Today, the price has fallen to a more reasonable level close to $70/bbl, well below where it was in May before the US announced its change of policy on Iran. Lower prices are clearly a benefit to consumers, especially hard-pressed ones in developing countries that are suffering from the additional handicap of weak national currencies. For now, forecasts of oil demand growth remain solid with an increase of 1.3 mb/d this year and an increase to 1.4 mb/d in 2019, even though the macro-economic outlook is uncertain.
We should also recognise the interests of the producers. For many countries, even though their output might have increased, prices falling too far are unwelcome. Ministers from the Vienna Agreement countries will meet in early December, but we have already seen suggestions from leading producers that supply could be cut soon if customers, seeing ample supply, rising stocks, and slumping refining margins, request lower volumes.
Although the oil market appears to be more relaxed than it was a few weeks ago, and there might be a sense of “mission accomplished” that producers have met the challenge of replacing lost barrels, such is the volatility of events that rising stocks should be welcomed as a form of insurance, rather than a threat. The United States remains committed to reducing Iranian oil exports to zero from the 1.8 mb/d seen today; there are concerns as to the stability of production in Libya, Nigeria and Venezuela; and the tanker collision last week in Norwegian waters, although modest in impact, is another reminder of the vulnerability of the system to accidents.
The response to the call by the IEA and others to increase production is a reminder that the oil industry works best when it works together. Regular contacts between key players are essential in creating understanding, and even though oil diplomacy has succeeded so far this year, it needs to be maintained to ensure market stability.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 21 March 19
PRICE PLUNGE AS CHINESE LEAVE THERMAL COAL OUT IN THE COLD - AUSTRALIAN FINANCIAL REVIEW
Thermal coal exporter New Hope Corporation says China’s shipment squeeze on Australia is putting downward pressure on prices in all markets i ...
Wednesday, 20 March 19
COAL EXPORT FEARS RESURFACE AS RESTRICTIONS HIT MORE CHINESE PORTS AND AUSTRALIAN PRICES COP A 'BELTING' - ABC
Australian thermal coal exports to China are under increasing pressure, with indications import restrictions are spreading to other key ports.
...
Monday, 18 March 19
A 56,000DWT SHIP FIXED DELIVERY FOR A SINGAPORE TRIP VIA INDONESIA, RE-DELIVERY CHINA, AT $10,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Baltic Capesize market shrugged off its recent negative sentiment to post daily incremental improvements over the last week. Pacif ...
Saturday, 16 March 19
AUSTRALIAN COAL STILL FACING CHINESE DELAY - AAP
Australian coal exports to China are still facing delays, with protectionism and environmental checks blamed for the slowdown.
Coal ...
Thursday, 14 March 19
SUPRAMAX: INDO COAL CARGOES GETTING FIXED AT AROUND US$ 12000 TO CHINA - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Average daily earning still well below operating costs, and owners keep bleeding - but nevertheless finally some bright spots for the ...
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- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Planning Commission, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
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