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Thursday, 15 November 18
OIL MARKET REPORT: HEEDING THE WARNINGS - IEA
 In last month’s Report, we noted that since the middle of the year oil supply had increased sharply, with gains in the Middle East, Russia and the United States more than compensating for falls in production in Iran, Venezuela and elsewhere. New data show that the pace has accelerated, and this higher output, in combination with Iranian sanctions waivers issued by the US and steady demand growth, implies a stock build in 4Q18 of 0.7 mb/d. Already, OECD stocks have increased for four months in a row, with products back above the five-year average. In 1H19, based on our outlook for non-OPEC production and global demand, and assuming flat OPEC production (i.e. losses from Iran/Venezuela are offset by others), the implied stock build is currently 2 mb/d.
In the August edition of this Report we described the replacement of Iranian and Venezuelan barrels as “challenging”, and that there was a danger of prices rising too high too fast. Producers have heeded the warnings and more than met the challenge and today, the Big Three, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United States, all see output at record levels. Total non-OPEC production in August, the latest month for which we have consolidated data, was 3.5 mb/d higher than a year ago, with the United States contributing an extraordinary 3.0 mb/d. Russia’s crude output has hit a new record of 11.4 mb/d, with companies suggesting that they could produce even more.
In early October, the price of Brent crude oil reached a four-year high above $86/bbl, reflecting the legitimate fears of market tightness. In our view, this was a dangerous “red zone” and it justified calls for producers to raise output. Today, the price has fallen to a more reasonable level close to $70/bbl, well below where it was in May before the US announced its change of policy on Iran. Lower prices are clearly a benefit to consumers, especially hard-pressed ones in developing countries that are suffering from the additional handicap of weak national currencies. For now, forecasts of oil demand growth remain solid with an increase of 1.3 mb/d this year and an increase to 1.4 mb/d in 2019, even though the macro-economic outlook is uncertain.
We should also recognise the interests of the producers. For many countries, even though their output might have increased, prices falling too far are unwelcome. Ministers from the Vienna Agreement countries will meet in early December, but we have already seen suggestions from leading producers that supply could be cut soon if customers, seeing ample supply, rising stocks, and slumping refining margins, request lower volumes.
Although the oil market appears to be more relaxed than it was a few weeks ago, and there might be a sense of “mission accomplished” that producers have met the challenge of replacing lost barrels, such is the volatility of events that rising stocks should be welcomed as a form of insurance, rather than a threat. The United States remains committed to reducing Iranian oil exports to zero from the 1.8 mb/d seen today; there are concerns as to the stability of production in Libya, Nigeria and Venezuela; and the tanker collision last week in Norwegian waters, although modest in impact, is another reminder of the vulnerability of the system to accidents.
The response to the call by the IEA and others to increase production is a reminder that the oil industry works best when it works together. Regular contacts between key players are essential in creating understanding, and even though oil diplomacy has succeeded so far this year, it needs to be maintained to ensure market stability.
Source: IEA
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Monday, 23 September 19
CHINA RECORDS SLOWER GROWTH IN COAL PRODUCTION - XINHUA
The growth of China’s raw coal production slowed down in August, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed.
Aro ...
Friday, 20 September 19
INDIA TO INVITE BIDS FOR COMMERCIAL COAL MINING IN DECEMBER - MINISTER FOR COAL
India aims to begin the process of holding the first round of commercial coal mining auctions December end, Minister for Coal, Mines and Parliament ...
Friday, 20 September 19
INDIA: ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN IMPACTS COAL IMPORT CARGO IN H1 FY20 - PTI
Economic slowdown has impacted coal import cargo in the first half of this fiscal, as overall cargo growth at major ports registered a marginal gro ...
Wednesday, 18 September 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
During the first week of September, I had the privilege of attending the Donsö Shipping Meet 2019, in Donsö, a small island of around 1,& ...
Tuesday, 17 September 19
PANAMA SHIP REGISTRY MODERNIZES SHIP REGISTRATION
The Panama Ship Registry has announced it will integrate in a single platform “Electronic Ship Registration System (ESRS)” the present ...
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Planning Commission, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
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