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Thursday, 15 November 18
OIL MARKET REPORT: HEEDING THE WARNINGS - IEA
 In last month’s Report, we noted that since the middle of the year oil supply had increased sharply, with gains in the Middle East, Russia and the United States more than compensating for falls in production in Iran, Venezuela and elsewhere. New data show that the pace has accelerated, and this higher output, in combination with Iranian sanctions waivers issued by the US and steady demand growth, implies a stock build in 4Q18 of 0.7 mb/d. Already, OECD stocks have increased for four months in a row, with products back above the five-year average. In 1H19, based on our outlook for non-OPEC production and global demand, and assuming flat OPEC production (i.e. losses from Iran/Venezuela are offset by others), the implied stock build is currently 2 mb/d.
In the August edition of this Report we described the replacement of Iranian and Venezuelan barrels as “challenging”, and that there was a danger of prices rising too high too fast. Producers have heeded the warnings and more than met the challenge and today, the Big Three, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United States, all see output at record levels. Total non-OPEC production in August, the latest month for which we have consolidated data, was 3.5 mb/d higher than a year ago, with the United States contributing an extraordinary 3.0 mb/d. Russia’s crude output has hit a new record of 11.4 mb/d, with companies suggesting that they could produce even more.
In early October, the price of Brent crude oil reached a four-year high above $86/bbl, reflecting the legitimate fears of market tightness. In our view, this was a dangerous “red zone” and it justified calls for producers to raise output. Today, the price has fallen to a more reasonable level close to $70/bbl, well below where it was in May before the US announced its change of policy on Iran. Lower prices are clearly a benefit to consumers, especially hard-pressed ones in developing countries that are suffering from the additional handicap of weak national currencies. For now, forecasts of oil demand growth remain solid with an increase of 1.3 mb/d this year and an increase to 1.4 mb/d in 2019, even though the macro-economic outlook is uncertain.
We should also recognise the interests of the producers. For many countries, even though their output might have increased, prices falling too far are unwelcome. Ministers from the Vienna Agreement countries will meet in early December, but we have already seen suggestions from leading producers that supply could be cut soon if customers, seeing ample supply, rising stocks, and slumping refining margins, request lower volumes.
Although the oil market appears to be more relaxed than it was a few weeks ago, and there might be a sense of “mission accomplished” that producers have met the challenge of replacing lost barrels, such is the volatility of events that rising stocks should be welcomed as a form of insurance, rather than a threat. The United States remains committed to reducing Iranian oil exports to zero from the 1.8 mb/d seen today; there are concerns as to the stability of production in Libya, Nigeria and Venezuela; and the tanker collision last week in Norwegian waters, although modest in impact, is another reminder of the vulnerability of the system to accidents.
The response to the call by the IEA and others to increase production is a reminder that the oil industry works best when it works together. Regular contacts between key players are essential in creating understanding, and even though oil diplomacy has succeeded so far this year, it needs to be maintained to ensure market stability.
Source: IEA
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Friday, 11 October 19
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER TO IMPORT LCV COAL IN NOVEMBER
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea South-East Power Co., Ltd. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for 75,000 Metric Tons low calorific v ...
Thursday, 10 October 19
THERMAL COAL IMPORT LIKELY TO CROSS 200 MT IN 2019-20 - TIME OF INDIA
The country's overall thermal coal import is likely to cross the 200-million tonnes (MT) mark in the current financial year, according to Icra. ...
Wednesday, 09 October 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we have already stated in previous insights, we had expected that the recovery on rates and activity across all segments in the offshore market ...
Thursday, 03 October 19
OIL PRICE ASSUMPTIONS UNCHANGED, NBP GAS PRICE LOWERED - FITCH RATINGS PRIMARY - FITCH RATINGS
Our oil price assumptions are unchanged, despite the recent price volatility following the attacks on Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure, Fitch ...
Thursday, 03 October 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT
Edible oil products across the board are showing healthy amount of export activity, however, rates in most cases are struggling to move accordingly ...
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- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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