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Thursday, 15 November 18
OIL MARKET REPORT: HEEDING THE WARNINGS - IEA
 In last month’s Report, we noted that since the middle of the year oil supply had increased sharply, with gains in the Middle East, Russia and the United States more than compensating for falls in production in Iran, Venezuela and elsewhere. New data show that the pace has accelerated, and this higher output, in combination with Iranian sanctions waivers issued by the US and steady demand growth, implies a stock build in 4Q18 of 0.7 mb/d. Already, OECD stocks have increased for four months in a row, with products back above the five-year average. In 1H19, based on our outlook for non-OPEC production and global demand, and assuming flat OPEC production (i.e. losses from Iran/Venezuela are offset by others), the implied stock build is currently 2 mb/d.
In the August edition of this Report we described the replacement of Iranian and Venezuelan barrels as “challenging”, and that there was a danger of prices rising too high too fast. Producers have heeded the warnings and more than met the challenge and today, the Big Three, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United States, all see output at record levels. Total non-OPEC production in August, the latest month for which we have consolidated data, was 3.5 mb/d higher than a year ago, with the United States contributing an extraordinary 3.0 mb/d. Russia’s crude output has hit a new record of 11.4 mb/d, with companies suggesting that they could produce even more.
In early October, the price of Brent crude oil reached a four-year high above $86/bbl, reflecting the legitimate fears of market tightness. In our view, this was a dangerous “red zone” and it justified calls for producers to raise output. Today, the price has fallen to a more reasonable level close to $70/bbl, well below where it was in May before the US announced its change of policy on Iran. Lower prices are clearly a benefit to consumers, especially hard-pressed ones in developing countries that are suffering from the additional handicap of weak national currencies. For now, forecasts of oil demand growth remain solid with an increase of 1.3 mb/d this year and an increase to 1.4 mb/d in 2019, even though the macro-economic outlook is uncertain.
We should also recognise the interests of the producers. For many countries, even though their output might have increased, prices falling too far are unwelcome. Ministers from the Vienna Agreement countries will meet in early December, but we have already seen suggestions from leading producers that supply could be cut soon if customers, seeing ample supply, rising stocks, and slumping refining margins, request lower volumes.
Although the oil market appears to be more relaxed than it was a few weeks ago, and there might be a sense of “mission accomplished” that producers have met the challenge of replacing lost barrels, such is the volatility of events that rising stocks should be welcomed as a form of insurance, rather than a threat. The United States remains committed to reducing Iranian oil exports to zero from the 1.8 mb/d seen today; there are concerns as to the stability of production in Libya, Nigeria and Venezuela; and the tanker collision last week in Norwegian waters, although modest in impact, is another reminder of the vulnerability of the system to accidents.
The response to the call by the IEA and others to increase production is a reminder that the oil industry works best when it works together. Regular contacts between key players are essential in creating understanding, and even though oil diplomacy has succeeded so far this year, it needs to be maintained to ensure market stability.
Source: IEA
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Friday, 27 September 19
LOWDOWN ON INCOTERMS 2020 OVERHAUL - BALTIC EXCHANGE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
This ninth revision of Incoterms is changed in style and substance. The revisions improve certain aspects of Incoterms 20 ...
Thursday, 26 September 19
INDIA INCREASES ITS ANNUAL COAL PRODUCTION BY 2.7% PER YEAR FROM 850 MILLION SHORT TONS IN 2018 TO 2 BILLION SHORT TONS BY 2050 - EIA
Worldwide coal production holds steady at about 8 billion short tons, or 160 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu), per year through 2040. Inc ...
Wednesday, 25 September 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In the past five months there has been significant activity in the asset market with the dry bulk segment being by far the most volatile in terms o ...
Tuesday, 24 September 19
9TH ANNUAL SUPPLY CHAIN INNOVATION SUMMIT 2019 ASIA PACIFIC
Summit: 9th Annual Supply Chain Innovation Summit 2019 Asia Pacific
Host: Ace Events
Website: http: ...
Monday, 23 September 19
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN ARENA IT WAS A SLOW START, BUT DEMAND INCREASED AS THE WEEK WENT ON - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market trended down over this past week, breaking the market out of its upward trending range. While the market traded sideways at ...
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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