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Thursday, 15 November 18
OIL MARKET REPORT: HEEDING THE WARNINGS - IEA
 In last month’s Report, we noted that since the middle of the year oil supply had increased sharply, with gains in the Middle East, Russia and the United States more than compensating for falls in production in Iran, Venezuela and elsewhere. New data show that the pace has accelerated, and this higher output, in combination with Iranian sanctions waivers issued by the US and steady demand growth, implies a stock build in 4Q18 of 0.7 mb/d. Already, OECD stocks have increased for four months in a row, with products back above the five-year average. In 1H19, based on our outlook for non-OPEC production and global demand, and assuming flat OPEC production (i.e. losses from Iran/Venezuela are offset by others), the implied stock build is currently 2 mb/d.
In the August edition of this Report we described the replacement of Iranian and Venezuelan barrels as “challenging”, and that there was a danger of prices rising too high too fast. Producers have heeded the warnings and more than met the challenge and today, the Big Three, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United States, all see output at record levels. Total non-OPEC production in August, the latest month for which we have consolidated data, was 3.5 mb/d higher than a year ago, with the United States contributing an extraordinary 3.0 mb/d. Russia’s crude output has hit a new record of 11.4 mb/d, with companies suggesting that they could produce even more.
In early October, the price of Brent crude oil reached a four-year high above $86/bbl, reflecting the legitimate fears of market tightness. In our view, this was a dangerous “red zone” and it justified calls for producers to raise output. Today, the price has fallen to a more reasonable level close to $70/bbl, well below where it was in May before the US announced its change of policy on Iran. Lower prices are clearly a benefit to consumers, especially hard-pressed ones in developing countries that are suffering from the additional handicap of weak national currencies. For now, forecasts of oil demand growth remain solid with an increase of 1.3 mb/d this year and an increase to 1.4 mb/d in 2019, even though the macro-economic outlook is uncertain.
We should also recognise the interests of the producers. For many countries, even though their output might have increased, prices falling too far are unwelcome. Ministers from the Vienna Agreement countries will meet in early December, but we have already seen suggestions from leading producers that supply could be cut soon if customers, seeing ample supply, rising stocks, and slumping refining margins, request lower volumes.
Although the oil market appears to be more relaxed than it was a few weeks ago, and there might be a sense of “mission accomplished” that producers have met the challenge of replacing lost barrels, such is the volatility of events that rising stocks should be welcomed as a form of insurance, rather than a threat. The United States remains committed to reducing Iranian oil exports to zero from the 1.8 mb/d seen today; there are concerns as to the stability of production in Libya, Nigeria and Venezuela; and the tanker collision last week in Norwegian waters, although modest in impact, is another reminder of the vulnerability of the system to accidents.
The response to the call by the IEA and others to increase production is a reminder that the oil industry works best when it works together. Regular contacts between key players are essential in creating understanding, and even though oil diplomacy has succeeded so far this year, it needs to be maintained to ensure market stability.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 17 September 19
THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET IS ALREADY ON A DOWNWARD CORRECTION - ALLIED
Here we are again, just a breath before the final quarter of the year. Under typical circumstances and on the basis of what we have seen during the ...
Monday, 16 September 19
COLOMBIAN COAL PRODUCTION TO FALL 5% THIS YEAR, MINING GROUP SAYS - REUTERS
Colombia’s coal production will decline to around 80 million tonnes in 2019, nearly 5% below last year’s, because of low prices and dro ...
Monday, 16 September 19
THE COAL-D SHOULDER? - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Good fortune and the number 13 don’t usually go hand in hand, but when it comes to coal, 2013 actually seems to have been the commodity&rsquo ...
Monday, 16 September 19
SCRUBBERS AND FUEL PROFIT SHARE CLAUSES - CLYDE&CO
From 1 January 2020, Regulation 14 of MARPOL Annex VI provides that the sulphur content in fuel oil used on board ships shall be reduced from a max ...
Monday, 16 September 19
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER INVITES BIDS FOR MAX 1,290,000 METRIC TONS OF STEAMING COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea East-West Power Co. Ltd has issued an international tender for total 1,290,000 Metric Tons steam coal.
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- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The University of Queensland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
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