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Thursday, 15 November 18
OIL MARKET REPORT: HEEDING THE WARNINGS - IEA
 In last month’s Report, we noted that since the middle of the year oil supply had increased sharply, with gains in the Middle East, Russia and the United States more than compensating for falls in production in Iran, Venezuela and elsewhere. New data show that the pace has accelerated, and this higher output, in combination with Iranian sanctions waivers issued by the US and steady demand growth, implies a stock build in 4Q18 of 0.7 mb/d. Already, OECD stocks have increased for four months in a row, with products back above the five-year average. In 1H19, based on our outlook for non-OPEC production and global demand, and assuming flat OPEC production (i.e. losses from Iran/Venezuela are offset by others), the implied stock build is currently 2 mb/d.
In the August edition of this Report we described the replacement of Iranian and Venezuelan barrels as “challenging”, and that there was a danger of prices rising too high too fast. Producers have heeded the warnings and more than met the challenge and today, the Big Three, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United States, all see output at record levels. Total non-OPEC production in August, the latest month for which we have consolidated data, was 3.5 mb/d higher than a year ago, with the United States contributing an extraordinary 3.0 mb/d. Russia’s crude output has hit a new record of 11.4 mb/d, with companies suggesting that they could produce even more.
In early October, the price of Brent crude oil reached a four-year high above $86/bbl, reflecting the legitimate fears of market tightness. In our view, this was a dangerous “red zone” and it justified calls for producers to raise output. Today, the price has fallen to a more reasonable level close to $70/bbl, well below where it was in May before the US announced its change of policy on Iran. Lower prices are clearly a benefit to consumers, especially hard-pressed ones in developing countries that are suffering from the additional handicap of weak national currencies. For now, forecasts of oil demand growth remain solid with an increase of 1.3 mb/d this year and an increase to 1.4 mb/d in 2019, even though the macro-economic outlook is uncertain.
We should also recognise the interests of the producers. For many countries, even though their output might have increased, prices falling too far are unwelcome. Ministers from the Vienna Agreement countries will meet in early December, but we have already seen suggestions from leading producers that supply could be cut soon if customers, seeing ample supply, rising stocks, and slumping refining margins, request lower volumes.
Although the oil market appears to be more relaxed than it was a few weeks ago, and there might be a sense of “mission accomplished” that producers have met the challenge of replacing lost barrels, such is the volatility of events that rising stocks should be welcomed as a form of insurance, rather than a threat. The United States remains committed to reducing Iranian oil exports to zero from the 1.8 mb/d seen today; there are concerns as to the stability of production in Libya, Nigeria and Venezuela; and the tanker collision last week in Norwegian waters, although modest in impact, is another reminder of the vulnerability of the system to accidents.
The response to the call by the IEA and others to increase production is a reminder that the oil industry works best when it works together. Regular contacts between key players are essential in creating understanding, and even though oil diplomacy has succeeded so far this year, it needs to be maintained to ensure market stability.
Source: IEA
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Sunday, 15 September 19
SUPRAMAX / ULTRAMAX: MORE STEMS WERE NOTICED GOING TO VIETNAM FROM INDONESIA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Overall it was a negative week for the Capesize market, with many routes losing ground. A limited amount of time charter appeare ...
Wednesday, 11 September 19
THE INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE FELL HEAVILY IN SEPTEMBER
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Wednesday, 11 September 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
We are going through one of the rare instances where we see optimism building in the dry bulk industry and, as the momentum is still going, the bel ...
Monday, 09 September 19
INDIAN COMPANIES READY TO INVEST IN DEVELOPMENT OF NEW COAL DEPOSITS IN RUSSIA'S YAKUTIA - TASS
Indian metallurgical companies, which received trial batches of coal from Kolmar mining company, are satisfied with the quality of the products and ...
Monday, 09 September 19
COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT DOWN YEAR-ON-YEAR IN 2ND QUARTER - REUTERS
Colombia, the world’s fifth-largest exporter of coal, produced 18.9 million tonnes of the fuel in the second quarter, down 4.5% from the same ...
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- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The University of Queensland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
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