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Thursday, 15 November 18
OIL MARKET REPORT: HEEDING THE WARNINGS - IEA
 In last month’s Report, we noted that since the middle of the year oil supply had increased sharply, with gains in the Middle East, Russia and the United States more than compensating for falls in production in Iran, Venezuela and elsewhere. New data show that the pace has accelerated, and this higher output, in combination with Iranian sanctions waivers issued by the US and steady demand growth, implies a stock build in 4Q18 of 0.7 mb/d. Already, OECD stocks have increased for four months in a row, with products back above the five-year average. In 1H19, based on our outlook for non-OPEC production and global demand, and assuming flat OPEC production (i.e. losses from Iran/Venezuela are offset by others), the implied stock build is currently 2 mb/d.
In the August edition of this Report we described the replacement of Iranian and Venezuelan barrels as “challenging”, and that there was a danger of prices rising too high too fast. Producers have heeded the warnings and more than met the challenge and today, the Big Three, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United States, all see output at record levels. Total non-OPEC production in August, the latest month for which we have consolidated data, was 3.5 mb/d higher than a year ago, with the United States contributing an extraordinary 3.0 mb/d. Russia’s crude output has hit a new record of 11.4 mb/d, with companies suggesting that they could produce even more.
In early October, the price of Brent crude oil reached a four-year high above $86/bbl, reflecting the legitimate fears of market tightness. In our view, this was a dangerous “red zone” and it justified calls for producers to raise output. Today, the price has fallen to a more reasonable level close to $70/bbl, well below where it was in May before the US announced its change of policy on Iran. Lower prices are clearly a benefit to consumers, especially hard-pressed ones in developing countries that are suffering from the additional handicap of weak national currencies. For now, forecasts of oil demand growth remain solid with an increase of 1.3 mb/d this year and an increase to 1.4 mb/d in 2019, even though the macro-economic outlook is uncertain.
We should also recognise the interests of the producers. For many countries, even though their output might have increased, prices falling too far are unwelcome. Ministers from the Vienna Agreement countries will meet in early December, but we have already seen suggestions from leading producers that supply could be cut soon if customers, seeing ample supply, rising stocks, and slumping refining margins, request lower volumes.
Although the oil market appears to be more relaxed than it was a few weeks ago, and there might be a sense of “mission accomplished” that producers have met the challenge of replacing lost barrels, such is the volatility of events that rising stocks should be welcomed as a form of insurance, rather than a threat. The United States remains committed to reducing Iranian oil exports to zero from the 1.8 mb/d seen today; there are concerns as to the stability of production in Libya, Nigeria and Venezuela; and the tanker collision last week in Norwegian waters, although modest in impact, is another reminder of the vulnerability of the system to accidents.
The response to the call by the IEA and others to increase production is a reminder that the oil industry works best when it works together. Regular contacts between key players are essential in creating understanding, and even though oil diplomacy has succeeded so far this year, it needs to be maintained to ensure market stability.
Source: IEA
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Sunday, 11 August 19
ULTRAMAX: A 58,000DWT VESSEL OPEN KEMAMAN FIXED FOR TWO TO THREE LADEN LEGS, REDELIVERY SINGAPORE-JAPAN, AT $12,250 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
With typhoon Lekima gathering pace, numerous China ports were closed by the end of the week and will likely be for two to three days. ...
Tuesday, 06 August 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
On the 12th of May four tankers were attacked near the coast of Fujairah. The tankers hit were waiving international flags such as that of No ...
Monday, 05 August 19
SUPRAMAX: COAL FROM INDONESIA TO CHINA PAID AT MID $8,000S ON A 57,000-TONNER DELIVERY SOUTH CHINA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Having hit a high of $32,963 early last week, the Capesize 5TC now stands at $25,749. This is over 20% of its value lost in 10 days. C ...
Thursday, 01 August 19
PANAMAX: THE SENTIMENT IN THE MARKET IS STILL POSITIVE FOR THE LONGER TERM - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Two weeks ago the 5TC index was at 33,000 USD pd. Since then it has fallen off a bit and has stayed around 27,000 USD pd the last week ...
Thursday, 01 August 19
INDIKA ENERGY REVENUES DECLINE DUE TO LOW COAL PRICES
One of the largest Indonesian integrated energy companies PT Indika Energy Tbk posted revenues of US $ 1,380.4 million, down 4.6% compared to US $ ...
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- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Minerals Council of Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
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