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Thursday, 15 November 18
OIL MARKET REPORT: HEEDING THE WARNINGS - IEA
 In last month’s Report, we noted that since the middle of the year oil supply had increased sharply, with gains in the Middle East, Russia and the United States more than compensating for falls in production in Iran, Venezuela and elsewhere. New data show that the pace has accelerated, and this higher output, in combination with Iranian sanctions waivers issued by the US and steady demand growth, implies a stock build in 4Q18 of 0.7 mb/d. Already, OECD stocks have increased for four months in a row, with products back above the five-year average. In 1H19, based on our outlook for non-OPEC production and global demand, and assuming flat OPEC production (i.e. losses from Iran/Venezuela are offset by others), the implied stock build is currently 2 mb/d.
In the August edition of this Report we described the replacement of Iranian and Venezuelan barrels as “challenging”, and that there was a danger of prices rising too high too fast. Producers have heeded the warnings and more than met the challenge and today, the Big Three, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United States, all see output at record levels. Total non-OPEC production in August, the latest month for which we have consolidated data, was 3.5 mb/d higher than a year ago, with the United States contributing an extraordinary 3.0 mb/d. Russia’s crude output has hit a new record of 11.4 mb/d, with companies suggesting that they could produce even more.
In early October, the price of Brent crude oil reached a four-year high above $86/bbl, reflecting the legitimate fears of market tightness. In our view, this was a dangerous “red zone” and it justified calls for producers to raise output. Today, the price has fallen to a more reasonable level close to $70/bbl, well below where it was in May before the US announced its change of policy on Iran. Lower prices are clearly a benefit to consumers, especially hard-pressed ones in developing countries that are suffering from the additional handicap of weak national currencies. For now, forecasts of oil demand growth remain solid with an increase of 1.3 mb/d this year and an increase to 1.4 mb/d in 2019, even though the macro-economic outlook is uncertain.
We should also recognise the interests of the producers. For many countries, even though their output might have increased, prices falling too far are unwelcome. Ministers from the Vienna Agreement countries will meet in early December, but we have already seen suggestions from leading producers that supply could be cut soon if customers, seeing ample supply, rising stocks, and slumping refining margins, request lower volumes.
Although the oil market appears to be more relaxed than it was a few weeks ago, and there might be a sense of “mission accomplished” that producers have met the challenge of replacing lost barrels, such is the volatility of events that rising stocks should be welcomed as a form of insurance, rather than a threat. The United States remains committed to reducing Iranian oil exports to zero from the 1.8 mb/d seen today; there are concerns as to the stability of production in Libya, Nigeria and Venezuela; and the tanker collision last week in Norwegian waters, although modest in impact, is another reminder of the vulnerability of the system to accidents.
The response to the call by the IEA and others to increase production is a reminder that the oil industry works best when it works together. Regular contacts between key players are essential in creating understanding, and even though oil diplomacy has succeeded so far this year, it needs to be maintained to ensure market stability.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 24 July 19
COAL'S DEMISE QUICKENS IN EUROPE AS MARKET SHIFT IDLES PLANTS - BLOOMBERG
Commodity markets are stripping away the case for coal in Europe, moving quicker than government efforts to close the most polluting power plants.
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Monday, 22 July 19
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN ARENA SAW INCREASED ACTIVITY AND STRONGER NUMBERS BEING CONCLUDED; INDONESIAN ROUNDS REMAINED FIRM - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Another week of gains as the Atlantic basin continues to be pressurised on tonnage and Brazilian cargoes keep up a steady flow. The Ca ...
Thursday, 18 July 19
WORLD TRADE IN HARD COAL ROSE BY 4.7% IN 2018 - GERMANY COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
World Trade in Hard Coal Rose by 4.7% in 2018
Hard Coal Can Prevent Stress in the Electric Power System in Germany
• Sharp decl ...
Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the res ...
Tuesday, 16 July 19
KING COAL RULES IN JAPAN AS POWER UTILITIES IN THRALL TO LOW-COST FUEL - REUTERS
Japanese utilities will rely on the return of coal-fired power plants from maintenance to meet peak electricity demand this summer, highlighting th ...
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- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Planning Commission, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
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