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Thursday, 15 November 18
OIL MARKET REPORT: HEEDING THE WARNINGS - IEA
 In last month’s Report, we noted that since the middle of the year oil supply had increased sharply, with gains in the Middle East, Russia and the United States more than compensating for falls in production in Iran, Venezuela and elsewhere. New data show that the pace has accelerated, and this higher output, in combination with Iranian sanctions waivers issued by the US and steady demand growth, implies a stock build in 4Q18 of 0.7 mb/d. Already, OECD stocks have increased for four months in a row, with products back above the five-year average. In 1H19, based on our outlook for non-OPEC production and global demand, and assuming flat OPEC production (i.e. losses from Iran/Venezuela are offset by others), the implied stock build is currently 2 mb/d.
In the August edition of this Report we described the replacement of Iranian and Venezuelan barrels as “challenging”, and that there was a danger of prices rising too high too fast. Producers have heeded the warnings and more than met the challenge and today, the Big Three, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United States, all see output at record levels. Total non-OPEC production in August, the latest month for which we have consolidated data, was 3.5 mb/d higher than a year ago, with the United States contributing an extraordinary 3.0 mb/d. Russia’s crude output has hit a new record of 11.4 mb/d, with companies suggesting that they could produce even more.
In early October, the price of Brent crude oil reached a four-year high above $86/bbl, reflecting the legitimate fears of market tightness. In our view, this was a dangerous “red zone” and it justified calls for producers to raise output. Today, the price has fallen to a more reasonable level close to $70/bbl, well below where it was in May before the US announced its change of policy on Iran. Lower prices are clearly a benefit to consumers, especially hard-pressed ones in developing countries that are suffering from the additional handicap of weak national currencies. For now, forecasts of oil demand growth remain solid with an increase of 1.3 mb/d this year and an increase to 1.4 mb/d in 2019, even though the macro-economic outlook is uncertain.
We should also recognise the interests of the producers. For many countries, even though their output might have increased, prices falling too far are unwelcome. Ministers from the Vienna Agreement countries will meet in early December, but we have already seen suggestions from leading producers that supply could be cut soon if customers, seeing ample supply, rising stocks, and slumping refining margins, request lower volumes.
Although the oil market appears to be more relaxed than it was a few weeks ago, and there might be a sense of “mission accomplished” that producers have met the challenge of replacing lost barrels, such is the volatility of events that rising stocks should be welcomed as a form of insurance, rather than a threat. The United States remains committed to reducing Iranian oil exports to zero from the 1.8 mb/d seen today; there are concerns as to the stability of production in Libya, Nigeria and Venezuela; and the tanker collision last week in Norwegian waters, although modest in impact, is another reminder of the vulnerability of the system to accidents.
The response to the call by the IEA and others to increase production is a reminder that the oil industry works best when it works together. Regular contacts between key players are essential in creating understanding, and even though oil diplomacy has succeeded so far this year, it needs to be maintained to ensure market stability.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 03 July 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The global shipping industry is facing numerous challenges at a time when geopolitical turmoil has escalated in view of the recent tension in the M ...
Monday, 01 July 19
COAL DEMAND RISES, BUT REMAINS BELOW PEAK LEVELS - FORBES
This article is the third in a series on BP’s recently-released Statistical Review of World Energy 2019. The Review provides a comprehensive ...
Saturday, 29 June 19
ULTRAMAX: FROM SOUTHEAST ASIA MORE COAL WAS ENTERING THE MARKET - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market showed variability over the past week, as most routes were active yet sentiment differed from region to region. The Pacific ...
Wednesday, 26 June 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As the first half of the year is almost over, it is worth looking back at the sale and purchase activity during these months, focusing on the segme ...
Tuesday, 25 June 19
THERMAL COAL FUTURES ON THE ZHENGSHOU EXCHANGE ROSE - DANIEL HYNES
Coal markets were buoyed by ongoing supply side issues.
According to Daniel Hynes, Senior Commodity Strategist of ANZ, the the ...
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
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