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Thursday, 15 November 18
OIL MARKET REPORT: HEEDING THE WARNINGS - IEA
 In last month’s Report, we noted that since the middle of the year oil supply had increased sharply, with gains in the Middle East, Russia and the United States more than compensating for falls in production in Iran, Venezuela and elsewhere. New data show that the pace has accelerated, and this higher output, in combination with Iranian sanctions waivers issued by the US and steady demand growth, implies a stock build in 4Q18 of 0.7 mb/d. Already, OECD stocks have increased for four months in a row, with products back above the five-year average. In 1H19, based on our outlook for non-OPEC production and global demand, and assuming flat OPEC production (i.e. losses from Iran/Venezuela are offset by others), the implied stock build is currently 2 mb/d.
In the August edition of this Report we described the replacement of Iranian and Venezuelan barrels as “challenging”, and that there was a danger of prices rising too high too fast. Producers have heeded the warnings and more than met the challenge and today, the Big Three, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United States, all see output at record levels. Total non-OPEC production in August, the latest month for which we have consolidated data, was 3.5 mb/d higher than a year ago, with the United States contributing an extraordinary 3.0 mb/d. Russia’s crude output has hit a new record of 11.4 mb/d, with companies suggesting that they could produce even more.
In early October, the price of Brent crude oil reached a four-year high above $86/bbl, reflecting the legitimate fears of market tightness. In our view, this was a dangerous “red zone” and it justified calls for producers to raise output. Today, the price has fallen to a more reasonable level close to $70/bbl, well below where it was in May before the US announced its change of policy on Iran. Lower prices are clearly a benefit to consumers, especially hard-pressed ones in developing countries that are suffering from the additional handicap of weak national currencies. For now, forecasts of oil demand growth remain solid with an increase of 1.3 mb/d this year and an increase to 1.4 mb/d in 2019, even though the macro-economic outlook is uncertain.
We should also recognise the interests of the producers. For many countries, even though their output might have increased, prices falling too far are unwelcome. Ministers from the Vienna Agreement countries will meet in early December, but we have already seen suggestions from leading producers that supply could be cut soon if customers, seeing ample supply, rising stocks, and slumping refining margins, request lower volumes.
Although the oil market appears to be more relaxed than it was a few weeks ago, and there might be a sense of “mission accomplished” that producers have met the challenge of replacing lost barrels, such is the volatility of events that rising stocks should be welcomed as a form of insurance, rather than a threat. The United States remains committed to reducing Iranian oil exports to zero from the 1.8 mb/d seen today; there are concerns as to the stability of production in Libya, Nigeria and Venezuela; and the tanker collision last week in Norwegian waters, although modest in impact, is another reminder of the vulnerability of the system to accidents.
The response to the call by the IEA and others to increase production is a reminder that the oil industry works best when it works together. Regular contacts between key players are essential in creating understanding, and even though oil diplomacy has succeeded so far this year, it needs to be maintained to ensure market stability.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 18 June 19
TANKER SHIPPING: WHILE WE WAIT FOR 2020 TO KICK IN, IT'S ALL ABOUT POLITICS - BIMCO
Demand drivers and freight rates
Iran, Libya and Venezuela face export limitations because of sanctions and internal political troubles. At the s ...
Saturday, 15 June 19
SUPRAMAX: A 58,000-TONNER, OPEN QINGDAO, WAS BOOKED TO REDELIVER IN EAST COAST INDIA AT $6,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market closed on a quiet Friday last week after a few hectic days of mid-week trading. Trade routes from Brazil to the Far East we ...
Friday, 14 June 19
PANAMAX: OUTLOOK IS MIXED - FERNLEYS
Capesize
Sentiment changed to a more nervous tone as pacific cargo volumes failed to deliver as expected, however latest activity indicates res ...
Friday, 14 June 19
ELECTRONIC (PAPERLESS) TRADING - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Electronic Shipping Solutions: Bolero International Ltd, E-Title Authority Pte Ltd, Global Share S.A. (edoxOnline platfor ...
Wednesday, 12 June 19
KOSPO INVITES BIDS FOR 140,000 MT OF 4,600 NCV COAL FOR SEP. 2019 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 140,000 MT of minimum 4,600 kcal/kg NCV coal ...
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Australian Coal Association
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
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