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Friday, 14 September 18
10 YEARS ON FROM LEHMAN, HOW IS SHIPPING'S "HANGOVER"? - CLARKSONS RESEARCH
 On 15th September 2008, the collapse of Lehman Brothers crystallised the financial crisis and the onset the worst economic downturn for a century. To a shipping industry used to extreme cycles but transitioning to recession with rapid trade collapse and a huge newbuilding orderbook the initial shock was severe and the “hangover” prolonged. This week’s Analysis compares the situation almost ten years to the day.
Bye Bye Boom… Even for an industry well used to severe cycles (and with warning signals if you looked hard enough), after five years of freight rates sustained at levels not seen for a century, the transition to recession after Lehman was dramatic. The most catastrophic collapse was in Capesize. From surging to a frenzied $300,000/day in June 2008 (fanned by a $180/t iron ore price, stockpiling and congestion) earnings collapsed to $6,000/day in October and $2,000/day in November. Initially the tanker market was more stable, helped by single hull conversion and trader storage, while the container market saw 12% of the fleet laid up by late-2009.
Not The 80s Revisited? As our graph shows, unsurprisingly rates and prices today sit well below the week preceding Lehman. But although the shipping recession has felt prolonged, it’s been far from a “dead” decade with surprising upside at times. Even in 2009, Capesize earnings rose to $70,000/day as China’s steel output yo-yoed. There were also spikes in LNG (2012), LPG (2014-5), tankers (2015) and offshore (2013-14); and heavy (over!) newbuild ordering (2010, 2013) and record years for S&P (2017), so plenty of business has been done, helped by low interest rates. Arguably the container sector has had the most pain (but it’s a close call, and spare a thought for the bankers?).
Shipyard Surge…
Although shipyard output has dropped by 16% over the ten years (to 80m dwt), that’s far from the whole story! Having built up a record backlog (c.650m dwt, a daunting 55% of the fleet) and at prices that “on paper” were very profitable, the unravelling of the financial and contractual complexities became an appallingly complex task (especially with 30% of the capacity involved “greenfield”, and financial structures such as the KG). With analysts tracking cancellation and slippage closely, shipyard production eventually peaked in 2011 (the fastest output growth in peace time). At times fleet growth has felt relentless (peaking at 9% in 2011, a more helpful 2.6% in 2018) as shipbuilding has worked through its overcapacity. Although demolition has doubled in the ten years since, the world fleet is still a staggering 67% larger today (1.96m dwt!) than at the onset of the financial crisis.
Trading Up?
The immediate sea trade deterioration was severe, with volumes declining for only the second time in 30 years in 2009 (by 4%, with oil down 3%, dry bulk down 3% and containers down 9%). Trends since have been more encouraging, with a 38% increase (exactly the same % as GDP growth) to 12.0bn tonnes (big winners include dry bulk (+1.7bt), supported by a series of Chinese fiscal stimulus and infrastructure investments). After a “tough” ten years, that’s a more positive note to end on! Have a better decade!
Source: Clarksons Research
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Tuesday, 28 August 18
SUPRAMAX: A COAL TRIP VIA INDONESIA PAID $13,500 ON A 56,000DWT TO WC INDIA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Singapore holiday mid-week disrupted trading and unsettled the market, with owners losing some resilience. The market took on a la ...
Tuesday, 28 August 18
SHIPPING MARKET UPDATE - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
As we edge close to the start of the Autumn Season, a period within the year that is usually characterized as the pivot point from the final quarte ...
Friday, 24 August 18
KOREAN RESTRICTIONS ON COAL SULPHUR IMPACTING HUNTER EXPORTS - THE HERALD
WARNINGS that Korean restrictions on sulphur levels in coal could hurt the Hunter industry appear to have been accurate, according to a report in t ...
Thursday, 23 August 18
RUSSIA'S MECHEL PRODUCED 9.69 MMT OF RUN-OF-MINE COAL IN 1H'2018
Mechel PAO, one of the leading Russian mining and metals companies, announces 1H2018 operational results.
Mechel PAO’s Chief E ...
Thursday, 23 August 18
SUPRAMAX: SOME FRESH COAL CARGOES APPEARED IN SE ASIA, GIVING A BIT PRESSURE ON RATES FOR END AUGUST SHIPMENTS - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Slightly softer but generally very healthy for the big ships, with limited supply of early tonnage and positive Brazilian ore export v ...
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Showing 1636 to 1640 news of total 6871 |
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- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
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