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Friday, 14 September 18
10 YEARS ON FROM LEHMAN, HOW IS SHIPPING'S "HANGOVER"? - CLARKSONS RESEARCH
 On 15th September 2008, the collapse of Lehman Brothers crystallised the financial crisis and the onset the worst economic downturn for a century. To a shipping industry used to extreme cycles but transitioning to recession with rapid trade collapse and a huge newbuilding orderbook the initial shock was severe and the “hangover” prolonged. This week’s Analysis compares the situation almost ten years to the day.
Bye Bye Boom… Even for an industry well used to severe cycles (and with warning signals if you looked hard enough), after five years of freight rates sustained at levels not seen for a century, the transition to recession after Lehman was dramatic. The most catastrophic collapse was in Capesize. From surging to a frenzied $300,000/day in June 2008 (fanned by a $180/t iron ore price, stockpiling and congestion) earnings collapsed to $6,000/day in October and $2,000/day in November. Initially the tanker market was more stable, helped by single hull conversion and trader storage, while the container market saw 12% of the fleet laid up by late-2009.
Not The 80s Revisited? As our graph shows, unsurprisingly rates and prices today sit well below the week preceding Lehman. But although the shipping recession has felt prolonged, it’s been far from a “dead” decade with surprising upside at times. Even in 2009, Capesize earnings rose to $70,000/day as China’s steel output yo-yoed. There were also spikes in LNG (2012), LPG (2014-5), tankers (2015) and offshore (2013-14); and heavy (over!) newbuild ordering (2010, 2013) and record years for S&P (2017), so plenty of business has been done, helped by low interest rates. Arguably the container sector has had the most pain (but it’s a close call, and spare a thought for the bankers?).
Shipyard Surge…
Although shipyard output has dropped by 16% over the ten years (to 80m dwt), that’s far from the whole story! Having built up a record backlog (c.650m dwt, a daunting 55% of the fleet) and at prices that “on paper” were very profitable, the unravelling of the financial and contractual complexities became an appallingly complex task (especially with 30% of the capacity involved “greenfield”, and financial structures such as the KG). With analysts tracking cancellation and slippage closely, shipyard production eventually peaked in 2011 (the fastest output growth in peace time). At times fleet growth has felt relentless (peaking at 9% in 2011, a more helpful 2.6% in 2018) as shipbuilding has worked through its overcapacity. Although demolition has doubled in the ten years since, the world fleet is still a staggering 67% larger today (1.96m dwt!) than at the onset of the financial crisis.
Trading Up?
The immediate sea trade deterioration was severe, with volumes declining for only the second time in 30 years in 2009 (by 4%, with oil down 3%, dry bulk down 3% and containers down 9%). Trends since have been more encouraging, with a 38% increase (exactly the same % as GDP growth) to 12.0bn tonnes (big winners include dry bulk (+1.7bt), supported by a series of Chinese fiscal stimulus and infrastructure investments). After a “tough” ten years, that’s a more positive note to end on! Have a better decade!
Source: Clarksons Research
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Wednesday, 22 August 18
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 480K TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR BORYEONG POWER PLANT & SHIN BORYEONG POWER PLANTS
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a tender for 480,000 mt of min. 5700 NAR coal of Australian origi ...
Wednesday, 22 August 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE PANAGOPOULOS
During the most quite week of the summer period we witnessed a trade war between United States and Turkey. A battle, which started with the arrest ...
Monday, 20 August 18
SUPRAMAX: OVERALL IT WAS A POSITIVE WEEK FOR THE BSI INDEX WITH GAINS MADE - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A week of largely unfulfilled expectations with holidays again curbing activity. Rates remained essentially healthy, but despite bad wea ...
Friday, 17 August 18
DO ARBITRATION AGREEMENTS IN BILLS OF LADING BIND THEIR HOLDERS? - WFW
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Bills of lading are a crucial part of the security package traditionally sought by trade finance providers.
...
Friday, 17 August 18
MALAYSIA'S MANJUNG 4 - WORLD COAL ASSOCIATION
According to the IEA’s Energy Access Outlook 2017 report, nearly all of those who gained access to electricity worldwide in the last 16 years ...
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- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
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