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Friday, 14 September 18
10 YEARS ON FROM LEHMAN, HOW IS SHIPPING'S "HANGOVER"? - CLARKSONS RESEARCH
 On 15th September 2008, the collapse of Lehman Brothers crystallised the financial crisis and the onset the worst economic downturn for a century. To a shipping industry used to extreme cycles but transitioning to recession with rapid trade collapse and a huge newbuilding orderbook the initial shock was severe and the “hangover” prolonged. This week’s Analysis compares the situation almost ten years to the day.
Bye Bye Boom… Even for an industry well used to severe cycles (and with warning signals if you looked hard enough), after five years of freight rates sustained at levels not seen for a century, the transition to recession after Lehman was dramatic. The most catastrophic collapse was in Capesize. From surging to a frenzied $300,000/day in June 2008 (fanned by a $180/t iron ore price, stockpiling and congestion) earnings collapsed to $6,000/day in October and $2,000/day in November. Initially the tanker market was more stable, helped by single hull conversion and trader storage, while the container market saw 12% of the fleet laid up by late-2009.
Not The 80s Revisited? As our graph shows, unsurprisingly rates and prices today sit well below the week preceding Lehman. But although the shipping recession has felt prolonged, it’s been far from a “dead” decade with surprising upside at times. Even in 2009, Capesize earnings rose to $70,000/day as China’s steel output yo-yoed. There were also spikes in LNG (2012), LPG (2014-5), tankers (2015) and offshore (2013-14); and heavy (over!) newbuild ordering (2010, 2013) and record years for S&P (2017), so plenty of business has been done, helped by low interest rates. Arguably the container sector has had the most pain (but it’s a close call, and spare a thought for the bankers?).
Shipyard Surge…
Although shipyard output has dropped by 16% over the ten years (to 80m dwt), that’s far from the whole story! Having built up a record backlog (c.650m dwt, a daunting 55% of the fleet) and at prices that “on paper” were very profitable, the unravelling of the financial and contractual complexities became an appallingly complex task (especially with 30% of the capacity involved “greenfield”, and financial structures such as the KG). With analysts tracking cancellation and slippage closely, shipyard production eventually peaked in 2011 (the fastest output growth in peace time). At times fleet growth has felt relentless (peaking at 9% in 2011, a more helpful 2.6% in 2018) as shipbuilding has worked through its overcapacity. Although demolition has doubled in the ten years since, the world fleet is still a staggering 67% larger today (1.96m dwt!) than at the onset of the financial crisis.
Trading Up?
The immediate sea trade deterioration was severe, with volumes declining for only the second time in 30 years in 2009 (by 4%, with oil down 3%, dry bulk down 3% and containers down 9%). Trends since have been more encouraging, with a 38% increase (exactly the same % as GDP growth) to 12.0bn tonnes (big winners include dry bulk (+1.7bt), supported by a series of Chinese fiscal stimulus and infrastructure investments). After a “tough” ten years, that’s a more positive note to end on! Have a better decade!
Source: Clarksons Research
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Tuesday, 04 September 18
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN SECTOR REMAINED ACTIVE WITH RATES STILL FIRM ESPECIALLY IN SE ASIA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A turnaround in fortunes for the big ships, with a few slower days in the market. A build-up of tonnage and a lack of Brazil cargoes r ...
Thursday, 30 August 18
SUPRAMAX: CIS COAL TO FAR EAST WENT AT MID TENS AND TO SE ASIA AT CA USD 8000 - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
There was a slow start this week with holiday in UK on Monday. The index has been slowly coming off since then; The C5 route has seen ...
Wednesday, 29 August 18
MID-YEAR FY19 POWER OUTLOOK: IMPORTED COAL REQUIREMENT TO INCREASE DURING REMAINING FY19: IND-RA
India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) has maintained a stable-to-negative outlook on the Indian power sector for the remaining FY19, despite a rise i ...
Wednesday, 29 August 18
IMPACT ON CHARTERPARTIES - TIME TO ACT NOW : NORTH P&I CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The challenges introduced by the global sulphur cap are not exclusively technical. The new limits are likely to impact co ...
Tuesday, 28 August 18
COURT CONCLUDES DELIVERY MADE IN ACCORDANCE WITH TERMS OF LOIS - INCE&CO
Glencore Agriculture BV v Navig8 Chemicals Pool Inc (Songa Winds) [2018] EWCA 1901 (Civ)
In this case, the Commercial Court fo ...
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Showing 1631 to 1635 news of total 6871 |
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- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Coal Association
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
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