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Friday, 14 September 18
10 YEARS ON FROM LEHMAN, HOW IS SHIPPING'S "HANGOVER"? - CLARKSONS RESEARCH
 On 15th September 2008, the collapse of Lehman Brothers crystallised the financial crisis and the onset the worst economic downturn for a century. To a shipping industry used to extreme cycles but transitioning to recession with rapid trade collapse and a huge newbuilding orderbook the initial shock was severe and the “hangover” prolonged. This week’s Analysis compares the situation almost ten years to the day.
Bye Bye Boom… Even for an industry well used to severe cycles (and with warning signals if you looked hard enough), after five years of freight rates sustained at levels not seen for a century, the transition to recession after Lehman was dramatic. The most catastrophic collapse was in Capesize. From surging to a frenzied $300,000/day in June 2008 (fanned by a $180/t iron ore price, stockpiling and congestion) earnings collapsed to $6,000/day in October and $2,000/day in November. Initially the tanker market was more stable, helped by single hull conversion and trader storage, while the container market saw 12% of the fleet laid up by late-2009.
Not The 80s Revisited? As our graph shows, unsurprisingly rates and prices today sit well below the week preceding Lehman. But although the shipping recession has felt prolonged, it’s been far from a “dead” decade with surprising upside at times. Even in 2009, Capesize earnings rose to $70,000/day as China’s steel output yo-yoed. There were also spikes in LNG (2012), LPG (2014-5), tankers (2015) and offshore (2013-14); and heavy (over!) newbuild ordering (2010, 2013) and record years for S&P (2017), so plenty of business has been done, helped by low interest rates. Arguably the container sector has had the most pain (but it’s a close call, and spare a thought for the bankers?).
Shipyard Surge…
Although shipyard output has dropped by 16% over the ten years (to 80m dwt), that’s far from the whole story! Having built up a record backlog (c.650m dwt, a daunting 55% of the fleet) and at prices that “on paper” were very profitable, the unravelling of the financial and contractual complexities became an appallingly complex task (especially with 30% of the capacity involved “greenfield”, and financial structures such as the KG). With analysts tracking cancellation and slippage closely, shipyard production eventually peaked in 2011 (the fastest output growth in peace time). At times fleet growth has felt relentless (peaking at 9% in 2011, a more helpful 2.6% in 2018) as shipbuilding has worked through its overcapacity. Although demolition has doubled in the ten years since, the world fleet is still a staggering 67% larger today (1.96m dwt!) than at the onset of the financial crisis.
Trading Up?
The immediate sea trade deterioration was severe, with volumes declining for only the second time in 30 years in 2009 (by 4%, with oil down 3%, dry bulk down 3% and containers down 9%). Trends since have been more encouraging, with a 38% increase (exactly the same % as GDP growth) to 12.0bn tonnes (big winners include dry bulk (+1.7bt), supported by a series of Chinese fiscal stimulus and infrastructure investments). After a “tough” ten years, that’s a more positive note to end on! Have a better decade!
Source: Clarksons Research
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Wednesday, 12 September 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
A recovery in the shipping market since last year has buoyed optimism amongst the people in the industry. Yet if you are to ask most ship-owners if ...
Monday, 10 September 18
HANDYSIZE: PERIOD ACTIVITY REMAINED LIMITED WITH A 37,000DWT REPORTEDLY FIXED FOR FOUR TO SIX MONTHS AT $10,500, OPEN IN MALAYSIA IN MID-SEPTEMBER - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Rates came under pressure for the big ships last week, despite paper values holding at reasonable levels as these trades continued to ...
Thursday, 06 September 18
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE FALLS FOR FIRST TIME IN 3 MONTHS
COALspot.com: The benchmark price of Indonesian thermal coal falls for first time in three months.
According to the latest min ...
Thursday, 06 September 18
SUPRAMAX: SE ASIA-INDO ROUNDS WITH COAL HAVE BEEN CONCLUDED IN THE $13000S RANGE - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
The big ships experiencing a bump in the road towards what is commonly expected to be by far the best period of this year. Average dai ...
Wednesday, 05 September 18
ASIAN DEMAND COULD CREATE DEFICIT IN GLOBAL LNG MARKET - FITCH RATINGS
Growing gas demand from Asia, particularly from China, could swing the liquefied natural gas (LNG) market into a deficit by 2022-2025, Fitch Rating ...
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Showing 1626 to 1630 news of total 6871 |
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Minerals Council of Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
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