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Friday, 14 September 18
10 YEARS ON FROM LEHMAN, HOW IS SHIPPING'S "HANGOVER"? - CLARKSONS RESEARCH
 On 15th September 2008, the collapse of Lehman Brothers crystallised the financial crisis and the onset the worst economic downturn for a century. To a shipping industry used to extreme cycles but transitioning to recession with rapid trade collapse and a huge newbuilding orderbook the initial shock was severe and the “hangover” prolonged. This week’s Analysis compares the situation almost ten years to the day.
Bye Bye Boom… Even for an industry well used to severe cycles (and with warning signals if you looked hard enough), after five years of freight rates sustained at levels not seen for a century, the transition to recession after Lehman was dramatic. The most catastrophic collapse was in Capesize. From surging to a frenzied $300,000/day in June 2008 (fanned by a $180/t iron ore price, stockpiling and congestion) earnings collapsed to $6,000/day in October and $2,000/day in November. Initially the tanker market was more stable, helped by single hull conversion and trader storage, while the container market saw 12% of the fleet laid up by late-2009.
Not The 80s Revisited? As our graph shows, unsurprisingly rates and prices today sit well below the week preceding Lehman. But although the shipping recession has felt prolonged, it’s been far from a “dead” decade with surprising upside at times. Even in 2009, Capesize earnings rose to $70,000/day as China’s steel output yo-yoed. There were also spikes in LNG (2012), LPG (2014-5), tankers (2015) and offshore (2013-14); and heavy (over!) newbuild ordering (2010, 2013) and record years for S&P (2017), so plenty of business has been done, helped by low interest rates. Arguably the container sector has had the most pain (but it’s a close call, and spare a thought for the bankers?).
Shipyard Surge…
Although shipyard output has dropped by 16% over the ten years (to 80m dwt), that’s far from the whole story! Having built up a record backlog (c.650m dwt, a daunting 55% of the fleet) and at prices that “on paper” were very profitable, the unravelling of the financial and contractual complexities became an appallingly complex task (especially with 30% of the capacity involved “greenfield”, and financial structures such as the KG). With analysts tracking cancellation and slippage closely, shipyard production eventually peaked in 2011 (the fastest output growth in peace time). At times fleet growth has felt relentless (peaking at 9% in 2011, a more helpful 2.6% in 2018) as shipbuilding has worked through its overcapacity. Although demolition has doubled in the ten years since, the world fleet is still a staggering 67% larger today (1.96m dwt!) than at the onset of the financial crisis.
Trading Up?
The immediate sea trade deterioration was severe, with volumes declining for only the second time in 30 years in 2009 (by 4%, with oil down 3%, dry bulk down 3% and containers down 9%). Trends since have been more encouraging, with a 38% increase (exactly the same % as GDP growth) to 12.0bn tonnes (big winners include dry bulk (+1.7bt), supported by a series of Chinese fiscal stimulus and infrastructure investments). After a “tough” ten years, that’s a more positive note to end on! Have a better decade!
Source: Clarksons Research
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Monday, 17 September 18
GLENCORE RETURNS TO JAPAN COAL TALKS SCUPPERED BY HIGH PRICES - BLOOMBERG
Mining giant Glencore Plc and Japanese utilities have resumed thermal coal supply negotiations, restarting talks that fell apart earlier this year ...
Monday, 17 September 18
SMALL PERCENTAGE OF THE WORLD FLEET WILL FIT SCRUBBERS - FORECASTS : METTE KRONHOLM FRAENDE
In recent months, there have been numerous reports of a strong pick-up in demand for scrubbers. On 1 January 2020, however, the number of ships fit ...
Saturday, 15 September 18
POWERING SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW EMISSION COAL TECHNOLOGIES - WCA
In its 5th Strategic Energy Plan this year (2018), the Japanese Cabinet recognised coal as an important energy resource, necessary for the country& ...
Thursday, 13 September 18
OPEC SEES SLOWER 2019 OIL DEMAND GROWTH, WARNS ON ECONOMY
Crude Oil Price Movements
In August, the OPEC Reference Basket declined by $1.01 m-o-m, settling at $72.26/b. Crude oil futures were also down ...
Thursday, 13 September 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO-INDIA COAL RUN WAS FIXED CLOSE TO $16000 ON ULTRA - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Rates took a further drop in the beginning of the week, to later find a floor around mid-week reaching mid USD 7 level for c5 and just ...
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Showing 1616 to 1620 news of total 6871 |
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Coal Association
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
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