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Friday, 14 September 18
10 YEARS ON FROM LEHMAN, HOW IS SHIPPING'S "HANGOVER"? - CLARKSONS RESEARCH
 On 15th September 2008, the collapse of Lehman Brothers crystallised the financial crisis and the onset the worst economic downturn for a century. To a shipping industry used to extreme cycles but transitioning to recession with rapid trade collapse and a huge newbuilding orderbook the initial shock was severe and the “hangover” prolonged. This week’s Analysis compares the situation almost ten years to the day.
Bye Bye Boom… Even for an industry well used to severe cycles (and with warning signals if you looked hard enough), after five years of freight rates sustained at levels not seen for a century, the transition to recession after Lehman was dramatic. The most catastrophic collapse was in Capesize. From surging to a frenzied $300,000/day in June 2008 (fanned by a $180/t iron ore price, stockpiling and congestion) earnings collapsed to $6,000/day in October and $2,000/day in November. Initially the tanker market was more stable, helped by single hull conversion and trader storage, while the container market saw 12% of the fleet laid up by late-2009.
Not The 80s Revisited? As our graph shows, unsurprisingly rates and prices today sit well below the week preceding Lehman. But although the shipping recession has felt prolonged, it’s been far from a “dead” decade with surprising upside at times. Even in 2009, Capesize earnings rose to $70,000/day as China’s steel output yo-yoed. There were also spikes in LNG (2012), LPG (2014-5), tankers (2015) and offshore (2013-14); and heavy (over!) newbuild ordering (2010, 2013) and record years for S&P (2017), so plenty of business has been done, helped by low interest rates. Arguably the container sector has had the most pain (but it’s a close call, and spare a thought for the bankers?).
Shipyard Surge…
Although shipyard output has dropped by 16% over the ten years (to 80m dwt), that’s far from the whole story! Having built up a record backlog (c.650m dwt, a daunting 55% of the fleet) and at prices that “on paper” were very profitable, the unravelling of the financial and contractual complexities became an appallingly complex task (especially with 30% of the capacity involved “greenfield”, and financial structures such as the KG). With analysts tracking cancellation and slippage closely, shipyard production eventually peaked in 2011 (the fastest output growth in peace time). At times fleet growth has felt relentless (peaking at 9% in 2011, a more helpful 2.6% in 2018) as shipbuilding has worked through its overcapacity. Although demolition has doubled in the ten years since, the world fleet is still a staggering 67% larger today (1.96m dwt!) than at the onset of the financial crisis.
Trading Up?
The immediate sea trade deterioration was severe, with volumes declining for only the second time in 30 years in 2009 (by 4%, with oil down 3%, dry bulk down 3% and containers down 9%). Trends since have been more encouraging, with a 38% increase (exactly the same % as GDP growth) to 12.0bn tonnes (big winners include dry bulk (+1.7bt), supported by a series of Chinese fiscal stimulus and infrastructure investments). After a “tough” ten years, that’s a more positive note to end on! Have a better decade!
Source: Clarksons Research
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Monday, 17 September 18
GLENCORE RETURNS TO JAPAN COAL TALKS SCUPPERED BY HIGH PRICES - BLOOMBERG
Mining giant Glencore Plc and Japanese utilities have resumed thermal coal supply negotiations, restarting talks that fell apart earlier this year ...
Monday, 17 September 18
SMALL PERCENTAGE OF THE WORLD FLEET WILL FIT SCRUBBERS - FORECASTS : METTE KRONHOLM FRAENDE
In recent months, there have been numerous reports of a strong pick-up in demand for scrubbers. On 1 January 2020, however, the number of ships fit ...
Saturday, 15 September 18
POWERING SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW EMISSION COAL TECHNOLOGIES - WCA
In its 5th Strategic Energy Plan this year (2018), the Japanese Cabinet recognised coal as an important energy resource, necessary for the country& ...
Thursday, 13 September 18
OPEC SEES SLOWER 2019 OIL DEMAND GROWTH, WARNS ON ECONOMY
Crude Oil Price Movements
In August, the OPEC Reference Basket declined by $1.01 m-o-m, settling at $72.26/b. Crude oil futures were also down ...
Thursday, 13 September 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO-INDIA COAL RUN WAS FIXED CLOSE TO $16000 ON ULTRA - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Rates took a further drop in the beginning of the week, to later find a floor around mid-week reaching mid USD 7 level for c5 and just ...
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Showing 1616 to 1620 news of total 6871 |
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- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
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