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Friday, 14 September 18
10 YEARS ON FROM LEHMAN, HOW IS SHIPPING'S "HANGOVER"? - CLARKSONS RESEARCH
 On 15th September 2008, the collapse of Lehman Brothers crystallised the financial crisis and the onset the worst economic downturn for a century. To a shipping industry used to extreme cycles but transitioning to recession with rapid trade collapse and a huge newbuilding orderbook the initial shock was severe and the “hangover” prolonged. This week’s Analysis compares the situation almost ten years to the day.
Bye Bye Boom… Even for an industry well used to severe cycles (and with warning signals if you looked hard enough), after five years of freight rates sustained at levels not seen for a century, the transition to recession after Lehman was dramatic. The most catastrophic collapse was in Capesize. From surging to a frenzied $300,000/day in June 2008 (fanned by a $180/t iron ore price, stockpiling and congestion) earnings collapsed to $6,000/day in October and $2,000/day in November. Initially the tanker market was more stable, helped by single hull conversion and trader storage, while the container market saw 12% of the fleet laid up by late-2009.
Not The 80s Revisited? As our graph shows, unsurprisingly rates and prices today sit well below the week preceding Lehman. But although the shipping recession has felt prolonged, it’s been far from a “dead” decade with surprising upside at times. Even in 2009, Capesize earnings rose to $70,000/day as China’s steel output yo-yoed. There were also spikes in LNG (2012), LPG (2014-5), tankers (2015) and offshore (2013-14); and heavy (over!) newbuild ordering (2010, 2013) and record years for S&P (2017), so plenty of business has been done, helped by low interest rates. Arguably the container sector has had the most pain (but it’s a close call, and spare a thought for the bankers?).
Shipyard Surge…
Although shipyard output has dropped by 16% over the ten years (to 80m dwt), that’s far from the whole story! Having built up a record backlog (c.650m dwt, a daunting 55% of the fleet) and at prices that “on paper” were very profitable, the unravelling of the financial and contractual complexities became an appallingly complex task (especially with 30% of the capacity involved “greenfield”, and financial structures such as the KG). With analysts tracking cancellation and slippage closely, shipyard production eventually peaked in 2011 (the fastest output growth in peace time). At times fleet growth has felt relentless (peaking at 9% in 2011, a more helpful 2.6% in 2018) as shipbuilding has worked through its overcapacity. Although demolition has doubled in the ten years since, the world fleet is still a staggering 67% larger today (1.96m dwt!) than at the onset of the financial crisis.
Trading Up?
The immediate sea trade deterioration was severe, with volumes declining for only the second time in 30 years in 2009 (by 4%, with oil down 3%, dry bulk down 3% and containers down 9%). Trends since have been more encouraging, with a 38% increase (exactly the same % as GDP growth) to 12.0bn tonnes (big winners include dry bulk (+1.7bt), supported by a series of Chinese fiscal stimulus and infrastructure investments). After a “tough” ten years, that’s a more positive note to end on! Have a better decade!
Source: Clarksons Research
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Monday, 01 October 18
A NO-DEAL BREXIT WILL UNDOUBTEDLY HAVE CONSEQUENCES FOR IMPORTERS AND EXPORTERS - KATE JONES, THE BALTIC BRIEFING
If you live in the UK, you might be finding it difficult to get away from the Brexit debate. “Hard Brexit”, “soft Brexit”, ...
Friday, 28 September 18
INDONESIA 2018 COAL OUTPUT TARGET NOW AROUND 507 MLN T - ENERGY MINISTRY : REUTERS
Indonesia has increased its 2018 coal production target to around 507 million tonnes from a previous target of 485 million tonnes, the Energy Minis ...
Friday, 28 September 18
FITCH RATINGS: METALLURGICAL COAL MINERS MAY CURB COSTS AS PRICES SLIP
Strong cost inflation in the global metallurgical coal sector suggests that miners may focus on cost controls as prices decline from their current ...
Wednesday, 26 September 18
IS YOUR CHARTER PARTY READY FOR 2020? - METTE KRONHOLM FRAENDE, BIMCO
As the deadline for the IMO’s global low-sulphur fuel requirements fast approaches, it is necessary to carefully check the bunker clauses in ...
Wednesday, 26 September 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE ILIOPOULOS
Despite the fact that the dry bulk SnP market saw an admittedly busy summer season, there is a noticeable slowdown in activity during the past thre ...
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Showing 1606 to 1610 news of total 6871 |
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- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Planning Commission, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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