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Friday, 14 September 18
10 YEARS ON FROM LEHMAN, HOW IS SHIPPING'S "HANGOVER"? - CLARKSONS RESEARCH
 On 15th September 2008, the collapse of Lehman Brothers crystallised the financial crisis and the onset the worst economic downturn for a century. To a shipping industry used to extreme cycles but transitioning to recession with rapid trade collapse and a huge newbuilding orderbook the initial shock was severe and the “hangover” prolonged. This week’s Analysis compares the situation almost ten years to the day.
Bye Bye Boom… Even for an industry well used to severe cycles (and with warning signals if you looked hard enough), after five years of freight rates sustained at levels not seen for a century, the transition to recession after Lehman was dramatic. The most catastrophic collapse was in Capesize. From surging to a frenzied $300,000/day in June 2008 (fanned by a $180/t iron ore price, stockpiling and congestion) earnings collapsed to $6,000/day in October and $2,000/day in November. Initially the tanker market was more stable, helped by single hull conversion and trader storage, while the container market saw 12% of the fleet laid up by late-2009.
Not The 80s Revisited? As our graph shows, unsurprisingly rates and prices today sit well below the week preceding Lehman. But although the shipping recession has felt prolonged, it’s been far from a “dead” decade with surprising upside at times. Even in 2009, Capesize earnings rose to $70,000/day as China’s steel output yo-yoed. There were also spikes in LNG (2012), LPG (2014-5), tankers (2015) and offshore (2013-14); and heavy (over!) newbuild ordering (2010, 2013) and record years for S&P (2017), so plenty of business has been done, helped by low interest rates. Arguably the container sector has had the most pain (but it’s a close call, and spare a thought for the bankers?).
Shipyard Surge…
Although shipyard output has dropped by 16% over the ten years (to 80m dwt), that’s far from the whole story! Having built up a record backlog (c.650m dwt, a daunting 55% of the fleet) and at prices that “on paper” were very profitable, the unravelling of the financial and contractual complexities became an appallingly complex task (especially with 30% of the capacity involved “greenfield”, and financial structures such as the KG). With analysts tracking cancellation and slippage closely, shipyard production eventually peaked in 2011 (the fastest output growth in peace time). At times fleet growth has felt relentless (peaking at 9% in 2011, a more helpful 2.6% in 2018) as shipbuilding has worked through its overcapacity. Although demolition has doubled in the ten years since, the world fleet is still a staggering 67% larger today (1.96m dwt!) than at the onset of the financial crisis.
Trading Up?
The immediate sea trade deterioration was severe, with volumes declining for only the second time in 30 years in 2009 (by 4%, with oil down 3%, dry bulk down 3% and containers down 9%). Trends since have been more encouraging, with a 38% increase (exactly the same % as GDP growth) to 12.0bn tonnes (big winners include dry bulk (+1.7bt), supported by a series of Chinese fiscal stimulus and infrastructure investments). After a “tough” ten years, that’s a more positive note to end on! Have a better decade!
Source: Clarksons Research
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Wednesday, 03 October 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
The bunker fuel supply and availability landscape is close to its transformation with the enforcement of the IMO’s global 0.5% fuel Sulphur c ...
Tuesday, 02 October 18
PANAMAX: A FURTHER RISE ACROSS ALL MAIN ROUTES THIS WEEK - ALLIED
Capesize
Finally an upward recovery was in sight in the spot market the past few days, after the prolonged negative pressure noted the weeks pr ...
Tuesday, 02 October 18
THE PRICE OF OIL CONTINUES ITS CLIMB AMIDST A SERIES OF CONCERNS REGARDING SUPPLY CONSTRAINTS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
It has been a busy week for oil traders as the price of oil continues its climb amidst a series of concerns regarding supply constraints.
...
Tuesday, 02 October 18
INDONESIA GETS READY TO MEET INCREASED COAL DEMAND FROM CHINA, FREIGHT TO RESPOND - MIKAL BOE
Indonesian coal suppliers have increased their domestic coal production target by 4.5 percent from a previous 485 million tonnes to a massive 507 m ...
Monday, 01 October 18
SUPRAMAX: A 56,000 DWT FIXED DELIVERY FOR A SURABAYA TRIP WITH REDELIVERY TO WEST COAST INDIA AT $13,500 - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A stop-start market for the big ships with many expectations and few fulfilled. Holidays curtailed trading early in the week, but the ...
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Showing 1601 to 1605 news of total 6871 |
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- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The University of Queensland
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Planning Commission, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
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