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Friday, 14 September 18
10 YEARS ON FROM LEHMAN, HOW IS SHIPPING'S "HANGOVER"? - CLARKSONS RESEARCH
 On 15th September 2008, the collapse of Lehman Brothers crystallised the financial crisis and the onset the worst economic downturn for a century. To a shipping industry used to extreme cycles but transitioning to recession with rapid trade collapse and a huge newbuilding orderbook the initial shock was severe and the “hangover” prolonged. This week’s Analysis compares the situation almost ten years to the day.
Bye Bye Boom… Even for an industry well used to severe cycles (and with warning signals if you looked hard enough), after five years of freight rates sustained at levels not seen for a century, the transition to recession after Lehman was dramatic. The most catastrophic collapse was in Capesize. From surging to a frenzied $300,000/day in June 2008 (fanned by a $180/t iron ore price, stockpiling and congestion) earnings collapsed to $6,000/day in October and $2,000/day in November. Initially the tanker market was more stable, helped by single hull conversion and trader storage, while the container market saw 12% of the fleet laid up by late-2009.
Not The 80s Revisited? As our graph shows, unsurprisingly rates and prices today sit well below the week preceding Lehman. But although the shipping recession has felt prolonged, it’s been far from a “dead” decade with surprising upside at times. Even in 2009, Capesize earnings rose to $70,000/day as China’s steel output yo-yoed. There were also spikes in LNG (2012), LPG (2014-5), tankers (2015) and offshore (2013-14); and heavy (over!) newbuild ordering (2010, 2013) and record years for S&P (2017), so plenty of business has been done, helped by low interest rates. Arguably the container sector has had the most pain (but it’s a close call, and spare a thought for the bankers?).
Shipyard Surge…
Although shipyard output has dropped by 16% over the ten years (to 80m dwt), that’s far from the whole story! Having built up a record backlog (c.650m dwt, a daunting 55% of the fleet) and at prices that “on paper” were very profitable, the unravelling of the financial and contractual complexities became an appallingly complex task (especially with 30% of the capacity involved “greenfield”, and financial structures such as the KG). With analysts tracking cancellation and slippage closely, shipyard production eventually peaked in 2011 (the fastest output growth in peace time). At times fleet growth has felt relentless (peaking at 9% in 2011, a more helpful 2.6% in 2018) as shipbuilding has worked through its overcapacity. Although demolition has doubled in the ten years since, the world fleet is still a staggering 67% larger today (1.96m dwt!) than at the onset of the financial crisis.
Trading Up?
The immediate sea trade deterioration was severe, with volumes declining for only the second time in 30 years in 2009 (by 4%, with oil down 3%, dry bulk down 3% and containers down 9%). Trends since have been more encouraging, with a 38% increase (exactly the same % as GDP growth) to 12.0bn tonnes (big winners include dry bulk (+1.7bt), supported by a series of Chinese fiscal stimulus and infrastructure investments). After a “tough” ten years, that’s a more positive note to end on! Have a better decade!
Source: Clarksons Research
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Wednesday, 17 October 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
In the last three months approximately 72 tankers changed hands involving ships larger than 33kdwt up to VLCC. 43 of those vessels had to do ...
Tuesday, 16 October 18
A PRACTICAL OVERVIEW OF THE IMO 2020 SULPHUR CAP - CLYDE&CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
With less than eighteen months before Regulation 14.1.3 of Annex VI of the MARPOL Convention comes into effect, there are ...
Saturday, 13 October 18
SUPRAMAX: SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY IN THE INDIAN OCEAN WAS EVIDENT AND RATES JUMPED - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A sharp reversal of fortunes for the big ships as the week closed after a depressed beginning. To start with drops were sudden, with t ...
Wednesday, 10 October 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - ILIAS M. LALAOUNIS
During the end of last month the BHSI was hovering around 630 points, while the last observed sale on a 10-yr old Japanese Handy was the M/V Van Im ...
Monday, 08 October 18
INDONESIAN THERMAL COAL PRICE REFERENCE FELL 3.74% IN OCTOBER 2018
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
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- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
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