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Friday, 14 September 18
10 YEARS ON FROM LEHMAN, HOW IS SHIPPING'S "HANGOVER"? - CLARKSONS RESEARCH
 On 15th September 2008, the collapse of Lehman Brothers crystallised the financial crisis and the onset the worst economic downturn for a century. To a shipping industry used to extreme cycles but transitioning to recession with rapid trade collapse and a huge newbuilding orderbook the initial shock was severe and the “hangover” prolonged. This week’s Analysis compares the situation almost ten years to the day.
Bye Bye Boom… Even for an industry well used to severe cycles (and with warning signals if you looked hard enough), after five years of freight rates sustained at levels not seen for a century, the transition to recession after Lehman was dramatic. The most catastrophic collapse was in Capesize. From surging to a frenzied $300,000/day in June 2008 (fanned by a $180/t iron ore price, stockpiling and congestion) earnings collapsed to $6,000/day in October and $2,000/day in November. Initially the tanker market was more stable, helped by single hull conversion and trader storage, while the container market saw 12% of the fleet laid up by late-2009.
Not The 80s Revisited? As our graph shows, unsurprisingly rates and prices today sit well below the week preceding Lehman. But although the shipping recession has felt prolonged, it’s been far from a “dead” decade with surprising upside at times. Even in 2009, Capesize earnings rose to $70,000/day as China’s steel output yo-yoed. There were also spikes in LNG (2012), LPG (2014-5), tankers (2015) and offshore (2013-14); and heavy (over!) newbuild ordering (2010, 2013) and record years for S&P (2017), so plenty of business has been done, helped by low interest rates. Arguably the container sector has had the most pain (but it’s a close call, and spare a thought for the bankers?).
Shipyard Surge…
Although shipyard output has dropped by 16% over the ten years (to 80m dwt), that’s far from the whole story! Having built up a record backlog (c.650m dwt, a daunting 55% of the fleet) and at prices that “on paper” were very profitable, the unravelling of the financial and contractual complexities became an appallingly complex task (especially with 30% of the capacity involved “greenfield”, and financial structures such as the KG). With analysts tracking cancellation and slippage closely, shipyard production eventually peaked in 2011 (the fastest output growth in peace time). At times fleet growth has felt relentless (peaking at 9% in 2011, a more helpful 2.6% in 2018) as shipbuilding has worked through its overcapacity. Although demolition has doubled in the ten years since, the world fleet is still a staggering 67% larger today (1.96m dwt!) than at the onset of the financial crisis.
Trading Up?
The immediate sea trade deterioration was severe, with volumes declining for only the second time in 30 years in 2009 (by 4%, with oil down 3%, dry bulk down 3% and containers down 9%). Trends since have been more encouraging, with a 38% increase (exactly the same % as GDP growth) to 12.0bn tonnes (big winners include dry bulk (+1.7bt), supported by a series of Chinese fiscal stimulus and infrastructure investments). After a “tough” ten years, that’s a more positive note to end on! Have a better decade!
Source: Clarksons Research
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Saturday, 20 October 18
PANAMAX: THE PACIFIC SAW A LARGE VOLUME OF FIXING, WITH INDONESIA AGAIN THE DRIVING FORCE - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A positive end to last week after a shaky start, with a Coaltrans taking participants out of the market early on and with rates slippi ...
Thursday, 18 October 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO/WC INDIA SUPRAS ARE FIXING AROUND MID $14000S P/D BASIS SPORE DELIVERY
Capesize
The volatile Cape market continues this week, especially in the Pacific says Fearnleys in its latest weekly report.
...
Thursday, 18 October 18
COAL SHORTAGE HITS POWER SECTOR AGAIN; HOW INDIA CAN GET ITS PRODUCTION RIGHT - ANIL SWARUP
By convincing states of the value proposition of increased production, the record production of Fy15 & Fy16 can be emulated.
The ...
Thursday, 18 October 18
CHINA POWER REFORM NEUTRAL ON GRIDS, PRESSURES IPP MARGINS - FITCH RATINGS
China's power sector reform has a broadly neutral impact on transmission grids although it will pressure the power producers' margins, says ...
Wednesday, 17 October 18
ESCROW SERVICE FOR BALTIC MEMBERS NOW LIVE
The Baltic Exchange’s Escrow Service for its members to hold deposits for ship sale transactions goes live today (15 October). The service is ...
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Showing 1586 to 1590 news of total 6871 |
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Australian Coal Association
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