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Friday, 14 September 18
10 YEARS ON FROM LEHMAN, HOW IS SHIPPING'S "HANGOVER"? - CLARKSONS RESEARCH
 On 15th September 2008, the collapse of Lehman Brothers crystallised the financial crisis and the onset the worst economic downturn for a century. To a shipping industry used to extreme cycles but transitioning to recession with rapid trade collapse and a huge newbuilding orderbook the initial shock was severe and the “hangover” prolonged. This week’s Analysis compares the situation almost ten years to the day.
Bye Bye Boom… Even for an industry well used to severe cycles (and with warning signals if you looked hard enough), after five years of freight rates sustained at levels not seen for a century, the transition to recession after Lehman was dramatic. The most catastrophic collapse was in Capesize. From surging to a frenzied $300,000/day in June 2008 (fanned by a $180/t iron ore price, stockpiling and congestion) earnings collapsed to $6,000/day in October and $2,000/day in November. Initially the tanker market was more stable, helped by single hull conversion and trader storage, while the container market saw 12% of the fleet laid up by late-2009.
Not The 80s Revisited? As our graph shows, unsurprisingly rates and prices today sit well below the week preceding Lehman. But although the shipping recession has felt prolonged, it’s been far from a “dead” decade with surprising upside at times. Even in 2009, Capesize earnings rose to $70,000/day as China’s steel output yo-yoed. There were also spikes in LNG (2012), LPG (2014-5), tankers (2015) and offshore (2013-14); and heavy (over!) newbuild ordering (2010, 2013) and record years for S&P (2017), so plenty of business has been done, helped by low interest rates. Arguably the container sector has had the most pain (but it’s a close call, and spare a thought for the bankers?).
Shipyard Surge…
Although shipyard output has dropped by 16% over the ten years (to 80m dwt), that’s far from the whole story! Having built up a record backlog (c.650m dwt, a daunting 55% of the fleet) and at prices that “on paper” were very profitable, the unravelling of the financial and contractual complexities became an appallingly complex task (especially with 30% of the capacity involved “greenfield”, and financial structures such as the KG). With analysts tracking cancellation and slippage closely, shipyard production eventually peaked in 2011 (the fastest output growth in peace time). At times fleet growth has felt relentless (peaking at 9% in 2011, a more helpful 2.6% in 2018) as shipbuilding has worked through its overcapacity. Although demolition has doubled in the ten years since, the world fleet is still a staggering 67% larger today (1.96m dwt!) than at the onset of the financial crisis.
Trading Up?
The immediate sea trade deterioration was severe, with volumes declining for only the second time in 30 years in 2009 (by 4%, with oil down 3%, dry bulk down 3% and containers down 9%). Trends since have been more encouraging, with a 38% increase (exactly the same % as GDP growth) to 12.0bn tonnes (big winners include dry bulk (+1.7bt), supported by a series of Chinese fiscal stimulus and infrastructure investments). After a “tough” ten years, that’s a more positive note to end on! Have a better decade!
Source: Clarksons Research
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Monday, 29 October 18
IMPLEMENTATION OF SULPHUR 2020 LIMIT - CARRIAGE BAN ADOPTED - IMO
An amendment to support consistent implementation of the forthcoming 0.50% limit on sulphur in ships fuel oil was adopted by the International Mari ...
Monday, 29 October 18
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN AREA SAW FALLING RATES, WITH A 61,000DWT FIXING DELIVERY KOHSICHANG TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY INDIA, AT $10,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A market of two halves for most of the week with rates in the Atlantic firming and easing in the East for most of the week, but then, ...
Friday, 26 October 18
SHIP OPERATING COSTS EXPECTED TO RISE IN 2018 AND 2019 - MOORE STEPHENS
Total vessel operating costs in the shipping industry are expected to rise by 2.7% in 2018 and by 3.1% in 2019, according to our latest survey.
...
Friday, 26 October 18
SEVERAL CONTRACTIONS IN GLOBAL STEEL PRODUCTION - JEFFREY LANDSBERG
World Steel Association data released today shows that global crude steel production totaled approximately 151.7 million tons in September. T ...
Thursday, 25 October 18
WHAT DOES THE "IMO 2020" REGULATION REALLY SAY? A QUICK GUIDE - BIMCO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The shipping industry has all eyes firmly fixed on the topic, but what exactly do the “IMO 2020” global sulph ...
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Planning Commission, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
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