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Friday, 14 September 18
10 YEARS ON FROM LEHMAN, HOW IS SHIPPING'S "HANGOVER"? - CLARKSONS RESEARCH
 On 15th September 2008, the collapse of Lehman Brothers crystallised the financial crisis and the onset the worst economic downturn for a century. To a shipping industry used to extreme cycles but transitioning to recession with rapid trade collapse and a huge newbuilding orderbook the initial shock was severe and the “hangover” prolonged. This week’s Analysis compares the situation almost ten years to the day.
Bye Bye Boom… Even for an industry well used to severe cycles (and with warning signals if you looked hard enough), after five years of freight rates sustained at levels not seen for a century, the transition to recession after Lehman was dramatic. The most catastrophic collapse was in Capesize. From surging to a frenzied $300,000/day in June 2008 (fanned by a $180/t iron ore price, stockpiling and congestion) earnings collapsed to $6,000/day in October and $2,000/day in November. Initially the tanker market was more stable, helped by single hull conversion and trader storage, while the container market saw 12% of the fleet laid up by late-2009.
Not The 80s Revisited? As our graph shows, unsurprisingly rates and prices today sit well below the week preceding Lehman. But although the shipping recession has felt prolonged, it’s been far from a “dead” decade with surprising upside at times. Even in 2009, Capesize earnings rose to $70,000/day as China’s steel output yo-yoed. There were also spikes in LNG (2012), LPG (2014-5), tankers (2015) and offshore (2013-14); and heavy (over!) newbuild ordering (2010, 2013) and record years for S&P (2017), so plenty of business has been done, helped by low interest rates. Arguably the container sector has had the most pain (but it’s a close call, and spare a thought for the bankers?).
Shipyard Surge…
Although shipyard output has dropped by 16% over the ten years (to 80m dwt), that’s far from the whole story! Having built up a record backlog (c.650m dwt, a daunting 55% of the fleet) and at prices that “on paper” were very profitable, the unravelling of the financial and contractual complexities became an appallingly complex task (especially with 30% of the capacity involved “greenfield”, and financial structures such as the KG). With analysts tracking cancellation and slippage closely, shipyard production eventually peaked in 2011 (the fastest output growth in peace time). At times fleet growth has felt relentless (peaking at 9% in 2011, a more helpful 2.6% in 2018) as shipbuilding has worked through its overcapacity. Although demolition has doubled in the ten years since, the world fleet is still a staggering 67% larger today (1.96m dwt!) than at the onset of the financial crisis.
Trading Up?
The immediate sea trade deterioration was severe, with volumes declining for only the second time in 30 years in 2009 (by 4%, with oil down 3%, dry bulk down 3% and containers down 9%). Trends since have been more encouraging, with a 38% increase (exactly the same % as GDP growth) to 12.0bn tonnes (big winners include dry bulk (+1.7bt), supported by a series of Chinese fiscal stimulus and infrastructure investments). After a “tough” ten years, that’s a more positive note to end on! Have a better decade!
Source: Clarksons Research
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Monday, 08 October 18
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 520,000 TONS OF COLOMBIAN ORIGIN OF 5,700 NAR COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a tender for 520,000 MT of min. 5700 NAR coal of Colombian origin ...
Sunday, 07 October 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO-INDIA USUAL COAL RUNS WERE COVERED AT US$ 12K - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Average daily earnings up close to 15 pct in 5 trading days, thus patience finally paying off for owners of the big ships - Chinese play ...
Sunday, 07 October 18
A CASE FOR 20/20 VISION? IMO'S LOW SULPHUR FUEL LIMIT UNDER MARPOL ANNEX VI WHICH COMES INTO FORCE ON 1ST JANUARY 2020
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The implementation of the global 0.5% sulphur cap for bunker fuel under MARPOL Annex VI in just under 18 months’ ti ...
Friday, 05 October 18
COAL PRODUCTION REACHES 64% OF 2018 TARGET : THE JAKARTA POST
National coal production up to August has already reached 311 million tons, or 64 percent of this year's total target of 485 million tons, acco ...
Wednesday, 03 October 18
VALUE OF AUSTRALIAN COAL EXPORTS TIPPED TO DECLINE SHARPLY OVER NEXT 18 MONTHS - THE GUARDIAN
Thermal coal prices forecast to drop 25% and metallurgical coal prices 23% as value of iron ore exports also falls
The value of Aust ...
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Showing 1596 to 1600 news of total 6871 |
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- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
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