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Friday, 14 September 18
10 YEARS ON FROM LEHMAN, HOW IS SHIPPING'S "HANGOVER"? - CLARKSONS RESEARCH
 On 15th September 2008, the collapse of Lehman Brothers crystallised the financial crisis and the onset the worst economic downturn for a century. To a shipping industry used to extreme cycles but transitioning to recession with rapid trade collapse and a huge newbuilding orderbook the initial shock was severe and the “hangover” prolonged. This week’s Analysis compares the situation almost ten years to the day.
Bye Bye Boom… Even for an industry well used to severe cycles (and with warning signals if you looked hard enough), after five years of freight rates sustained at levels not seen for a century, the transition to recession after Lehman was dramatic. The most catastrophic collapse was in Capesize. From surging to a frenzied $300,000/day in June 2008 (fanned by a $180/t iron ore price, stockpiling and congestion) earnings collapsed to $6,000/day in October and $2,000/day in November. Initially the tanker market was more stable, helped by single hull conversion and trader storage, while the container market saw 12% of the fleet laid up by late-2009.
Not The 80s Revisited? As our graph shows, unsurprisingly rates and prices today sit well below the week preceding Lehman. But although the shipping recession has felt prolonged, it’s been far from a “dead” decade with surprising upside at times. Even in 2009, Capesize earnings rose to $70,000/day as China’s steel output yo-yoed. There were also spikes in LNG (2012), LPG (2014-5), tankers (2015) and offshore (2013-14); and heavy (over!) newbuild ordering (2010, 2013) and record years for S&P (2017), so plenty of business has been done, helped by low interest rates. Arguably the container sector has had the most pain (but it’s a close call, and spare a thought for the bankers?).
Shipyard Surge…
Although shipyard output has dropped by 16% over the ten years (to 80m dwt), that’s far from the whole story! Having built up a record backlog (c.650m dwt, a daunting 55% of the fleet) and at prices that “on paper” were very profitable, the unravelling of the financial and contractual complexities became an appallingly complex task (especially with 30% of the capacity involved “greenfield”, and financial structures such as the KG). With analysts tracking cancellation and slippage closely, shipyard production eventually peaked in 2011 (the fastest output growth in peace time). At times fleet growth has felt relentless (peaking at 9% in 2011, a more helpful 2.6% in 2018) as shipbuilding has worked through its overcapacity. Although demolition has doubled in the ten years since, the world fleet is still a staggering 67% larger today (1.96m dwt!) than at the onset of the financial crisis.
Trading Up?
The immediate sea trade deterioration was severe, with volumes declining for only the second time in 30 years in 2009 (by 4%, with oil down 3%, dry bulk down 3% and containers down 9%). Trends since have been more encouraging, with a 38% increase (exactly the same % as GDP growth) to 12.0bn tonnes (big winners include dry bulk (+1.7bt), supported by a series of Chinese fiscal stimulus and infrastructure investments). After a “tough” ten years, that’s a more positive note to end on! Have a better decade!
Source: Clarksons Research
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Thursday, 13 September 18
SHIPPING IS INCREASINGLY CAUGHT IN THE TRADE WAR LINE OF CROSSFIRE - PETER SAND
Once again, the already long list of tariffed goods has been made even longer. Many more commodities were hit on 23 August, but September is likely ...
Wednesday, 12 September 18
THE INTERRELATIONSHIP BETWEEN LETTERS OF INDEMNITY AND CHARTERPARTY "TIME BAR" PROVISIONS - STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Introduction
A recent English Court of Appeal decision provides important guidance on the applicability of charterpar ...
Wednesday, 12 September 18
IS LNG POISED FOR A NEW GROWTH CYCLE? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Gas needs to work for its long-term sustainability. But the mood music is upbeat. Just 18 months ago the LNG market was depressed, anticipating an ...
Wednesday, 12 September 18
U.S. TOTAL COAL EXPORTS TO BE 107 MMST IN 2018 AND 101 MMST IN 2019 - EIA
EIA forecasts U.S. coal production will decline by 1% to 768 million short tons (MMst) in 2018, despite a 10% (10 MMst) increase in coal exports.
...
Wednesday, 12 September 18
MARINE BUNKERS: THE END OF THE WORLD AS WE KNOW IT - IBIA
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The world of bunkers is heading for rapid and fundamental changes and not just because of the 0.50% sulphur cap in 2020. ...
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Showing 1621 to 1625 news of total 6871 |
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Planning Commission, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The University of Queensland
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- White Energy Company Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
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