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Friday, 14 September 18
10 YEARS ON FROM LEHMAN, HOW IS SHIPPING'S "HANGOVER"? - CLARKSONS RESEARCH
 On 15th September 2008, the collapse of Lehman Brothers crystallised the financial crisis and the onset the worst economic downturn for a century. To a shipping industry used to extreme cycles but transitioning to recession with rapid trade collapse and a huge newbuilding orderbook the initial shock was severe and the “hangover” prolonged. This week’s Analysis compares the situation almost ten years to the day.
Bye Bye Boom… Even for an industry well used to severe cycles (and with warning signals if you looked hard enough), after five years of freight rates sustained at levels not seen for a century, the transition to recession after Lehman was dramatic. The most catastrophic collapse was in Capesize. From surging to a frenzied $300,000/day in June 2008 (fanned by a $180/t iron ore price, stockpiling and congestion) earnings collapsed to $6,000/day in October and $2,000/day in November. Initially the tanker market was more stable, helped by single hull conversion and trader storage, while the container market saw 12% of the fleet laid up by late-2009.
Not The 80s Revisited? As our graph shows, unsurprisingly rates and prices today sit well below the week preceding Lehman. But although the shipping recession has felt prolonged, it’s been far from a “dead” decade with surprising upside at times. Even in 2009, Capesize earnings rose to $70,000/day as China’s steel output yo-yoed. There were also spikes in LNG (2012), LPG (2014-5), tankers (2015) and offshore (2013-14); and heavy (over!) newbuild ordering (2010, 2013) and record years for S&P (2017), so plenty of business has been done, helped by low interest rates. Arguably the container sector has had the most pain (but it’s a close call, and spare a thought for the bankers?).
Shipyard Surge…
Although shipyard output has dropped by 16% over the ten years (to 80m dwt), that’s far from the whole story! Having built up a record backlog (c.650m dwt, a daunting 55% of the fleet) and at prices that “on paper” were very profitable, the unravelling of the financial and contractual complexities became an appallingly complex task (especially with 30% of the capacity involved “greenfield”, and financial structures such as the KG). With analysts tracking cancellation and slippage closely, shipyard production eventually peaked in 2011 (the fastest output growth in peace time). At times fleet growth has felt relentless (peaking at 9% in 2011, a more helpful 2.6% in 2018) as shipbuilding has worked through its overcapacity. Although demolition has doubled in the ten years since, the world fleet is still a staggering 67% larger today (1.96m dwt!) than at the onset of the financial crisis.
Trading Up?
The immediate sea trade deterioration was severe, with volumes declining for only the second time in 30 years in 2009 (by 4%, with oil down 3%, dry bulk down 3% and containers down 9%). Trends since have been more encouraging, with a 38% increase (exactly the same % as GDP growth) to 12.0bn tonnes (big winners include dry bulk (+1.7bt), supported by a series of Chinese fiscal stimulus and infrastructure investments). After a “tough” ten years, that’s a more positive note to end on! Have a better decade!
Source: Clarksons Research
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Thursday, 16 August 18
COAL PRODUCTION AT 37.11 PERCENT OF FULL-YEAR TARGET - THE JAKARTA POST
Indonesian coal production was recorded at 180 million tons on Wednesday, or 37.11 percent of the government’s 485 million target this year.
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Thursday, 16 August 18
OIL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
In July, the OPEC Reference Basket increased marginally by 5¢ m-o-m to settle at $73.27/b. Oil futures saw mixed ...
Tuesday, 14 August 18
THE CAPESIZE MARKET HAS SHOWN A TREMENDOUS COURSE DURING THE PAST 12 MONTHS - THOMAS CHASAPIS
The Capesize market has shown a tremendous course during the past 12 months, having quickly climbed out of the “hole that it had found itself ...
Monday, 13 August 18
A 50,200 DWT FIXED DELIVERY SINGAPORE TRIP VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY CHINA IN THE LOW $10,000S - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Expectations of a further push in the market were largely unfulfilled last week as rates come under pressure in Asia as the North Atla ...
Friday, 10 August 18
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TO DECLINE BY 1.8% IN 2019 BECAUSE COAL EXPORTS AND COAL CONSUMPTION ARE BOTH FORECAST TO DECREASE - EIA
EIA forecasts U.S. coal production will decline by 1.1% to 766 million short tons (MMst) in 2018 despite a 5.7% (6 MMst) increase in coal exports.
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Showing 1646 to 1650 news of total 6871 |
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- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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