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Thursday, 13 September 18
OPEC SEES SLOWER 2019 OIL DEMAND GROWTH, WARNS ON ECONOMY
 Crude Oil Price Movements
In August, the OPEC Reference Basket declined by $1.01 m-o-m, settling at $72.26/b. Crude oil futures were also down for the month. Price declines were mainly due to worries that the ongoing global trade disputes would lower oil demand, strengthening US dollar, US stock builds and reported supply increases. ICE Brent was $1.11 lower at $73.84/b compared to the previous month, while NYMEX WTI was down $2.74 at $67.85/b and DME Oman dropped 24¢ to $72.67/b. However, year-to-date (y-t-d) ICE Brent was still $19.86 higher at $72.00/b, while NYMEX WTI increased by $17.12 to $66.42/b and DME Oman was up $18.70 at $69.55/b. The Brent-WTI spread widened to average $6.00/b. Speculative net long positions ended mixed, with those of NYMEX WTI lower. As for market structure, the backwardation in Dubai remained unchanged, while that of WTI eased. The contango structure for Brent for the rest of the year deepened amid increasing supplies. The discount of sour to sweet crudes decreased due to an anticipated tightening of sour crude, while sweet crude availability was ample.
World Economy
The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019. In the OECD, growth in the US is assessed unchanged at 2.9% in 2018 and 2.5% in 2019. Euro-zone growth remains at 2.0% for 2018 and 1.9% for 2019. GDP growth in Japan is revised down by 0.1 pp to 1.1% in both 2018 and 2019. Meanwhile, in the non-OECD, India’s forecast is revised up to 7.6% for 2018, while remaining unchanged at 7.4% for 2019. China’s GDP growth remains at 6.6% for 2018 and 6.2% for 2019. Growth in Brazil is revised down by 0.4% to reach 1.2% in 2018, but a rebound to 2.0% is anticipated in 2019. Russia’s GDP growth forecast is also revised lower to 1.6% in 2018 and down to 1.7% in 2019.
World Oil Demand
In 2018, world oil demand is expected to grow by 1.62 mb/d, a minor downward revision from last month’s projection. In the OECD region, oil demand saw healthy growth in all three main OECD regions, particularly in the Americas over 1H18. In contrast, the non-OECD region, mainly Latin America and the Middle East, saw weaker oil requirements in 1H18 as well as slower economic projections, which has led to a net downward revision of 20 tb/d from last month’s report. Total oil demand for 2018 is now estimated at 98.82 mb/d. In 2019, world oil demand growth is forecast to rise by 1.41 mb/d, a minor downward adjustment of 20 tb/d from the previous month’s assessment, mainly reflecting the less optimistic economic projections in the non-OECD regions of Latin America and the Middle East compared to last month. Total world oil demand in 2019 is now projected to surpass 100 mb/d for the first time and reach 100.23 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 is expected to grow by 2.02 mb/d, a downward revision of 64 tb/d. The US, Canada, Kazakhstan the UK, and Brazil remain to be the main drivers for growth, while Mexico and Norway are projected to show the largest declines. Total non-OPEC supply for 2018 is now estimated at 59.56 mb/d. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 is forecast to grow by 2.15 mb/d, a minor upward revision of 17 tb/d. The US, Brazil, Canada, and the UK are expected to be the main growth drivers, while Mexico and Norway remain to be the largest declines. Non-OPEC supply is now forecast to average 61.71 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs in 2018 and 2019 are expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d and 0.11 mb/d to average 6.36 mb/d and 6.47 mb/d, respectively. In August, OPEC crude oil production increased by 278 tb/d to average 32.56 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins at all main trading hubs recorded gains in August as several refinery outages prompted product supply disruptions, which led to strengthening at the top and middle of the barrel. In the US, product markets strengthened, supported mainly by higher product exports, particularly to Latin America. In Europe, declining Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp product inventories resulted in tighter product balances, which provided substantial support to refining margins. Meanwhile in Asia, refining margins strengthened on the back of lower refinery intakes caused by unplanned shutdowns and bullish market sentiment.
Tanker Market
In August, dirty vessel spot freight rates increased by 5% on average compared to a month earlier. This was mainly driven by higher freight rates for VLCC and Aframax, while average Suezmax freight rates showed a decline. Enhanced activity and delays on the US Gulf Coast (USGC) and Asia supported freight rates in August. In the clean tanker market, spot freight rates remained under pressure as high vessel availability continued, while tonnage demand remained limited, therefore resulting in rate declines in both the eastern and western directions of Suez.
Stock Movements
Data for July showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 8.1 mb m-o-m, standing at 2,830 mb, which is 194 mb lower than a year ago and 43 mb below the latest five-year average, but remain 260 mb above the January 2014 level. Compared to the latest five-year average, crude stocks indicated a deficit of 0.2 mb, while product stocks witnessed a deficit of 43 mb. In terms of days of forward demand cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 0.1 days m-o-m in July to stand at 59.1 days, which is 2.3 days below the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 32.9 mb/d, which is 0.5 mb/d lower than in the previous year. In 2019, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32.1 mb/d, around 0.9 mb/d lower than a year earlier.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 27 November 18
PANAMAX AND SUPRAMAX INDICES WITNESSED A DECLINE OF JUST BELOW 14% IN THEIR MEAN ON A MONTH-ON-MONTH COMPARISON - ALLIED SHIPPING
A month of sharp corrections and great asymmetries for the dry bulk sector, with the overall overview of the market shipping rapidly from a state o ...
Monday, 26 November 18
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN MARKET STALLED THIS WEEK WITH A BUILD-UP OF TONNAGE - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
It was a positive end to the week, with West Australia/China making significant gains and firing owners’ resolve. There was talk ...
Friday, 23 November 18
GOLDEN ENERGY'S POTENTIAL ACQUISITION OF STANMORE CREDIT POSITIVE - FITCH RATINGS
Golden Energy and Resources Limited's (GEAR, B+/Positive) potential acquisition of Stanmore Coal will help the company diversify its coal opera ...
Friday, 23 November 18
ASSOCIATION CALLS FOR REVISION OF DMO SCHEME FOR COAL - JP
The Indonesian Coal Mining Association (APBI) has called on the government to revise the domestic market obligation (DMO) scheme for coal, which re ...
Friday, 23 November 18
INDONESIA'S REVENUES FROM MINERAL AND COAL INCREASE TO US$ 2.858 BILLION - ANTARA
Indonesia`s non-tax state revenues from the mineral and coal sub-sector reached Rp 41.77 trillion (approximately US$ 2.858 Billion) as of Nov 16, 2 ...
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- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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