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Thursday, 13 September 18
OPEC SEES SLOWER 2019 OIL DEMAND GROWTH, WARNS ON ECONOMY
 Crude Oil Price Movements
In August, the OPEC Reference Basket declined by $1.01 m-o-m, settling at $72.26/b. Crude oil futures were also down for the month. Price declines were mainly due to worries that the ongoing global trade disputes would lower oil demand, strengthening US dollar, US stock builds and reported supply increases. ICE Brent was $1.11 lower at $73.84/b compared to the previous month, while NYMEX WTI was down $2.74 at $67.85/b and DME Oman dropped 24¢ to $72.67/b. However, year-to-date (y-t-d) ICE Brent was still $19.86 higher at $72.00/b, while NYMEX WTI increased by $17.12 to $66.42/b and DME Oman was up $18.70 at $69.55/b. The Brent-WTI spread widened to average $6.00/b. Speculative net long positions ended mixed, with those of NYMEX WTI lower. As for market structure, the backwardation in Dubai remained unchanged, while that of WTI eased. The contango structure for Brent for the rest of the year deepened amid increasing supplies. The discount of sour to sweet crudes decreased due to an anticipated tightening of sour crude, while sweet crude availability was ample.
World Economy
The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019. In the OECD, growth in the US is assessed unchanged at 2.9% in 2018 and 2.5% in 2019. Euro-zone growth remains at 2.0% for 2018 and 1.9% for 2019. GDP growth in Japan is revised down by 0.1 pp to 1.1% in both 2018 and 2019. Meanwhile, in the non-OECD, India’s forecast is revised up to 7.6% for 2018, while remaining unchanged at 7.4% for 2019. China’s GDP growth remains at 6.6% for 2018 and 6.2% for 2019. Growth in Brazil is revised down by 0.4% to reach 1.2% in 2018, but a rebound to 2.0% is anticipated in 2019. Russia’s GDP growth forecast is also revised lower to 1.6% in 2018 and down to 1.7% in 2019.
World Oil Demand
In 2018, world oil demand is expected to grow by 1.62 mb/d, a minor downward revision from last month’s projection. In the OECD region, oil demand saw healthy growth in all three main OECD regions, particularly in the Americas over 1H18. In contrast, the non-OECD region, mainly Latin America and the Middle East, saw weaker oil requirements in 1H18 as well as slower economic projections, which has led to a net downward revision of 20 tb/d from last month’s report. Total oil demand for 2018 is now estimated at 98.82 mb/d. In 2019, world oil demand growth is forecast to rise by 1.41 mb/d, a minor downward adjustment of 20 tb/d from the previous month’s assessment, mainly reflecting the less optimistic economic projections in the non-OECD regions of Latin America and the Middle East compared to last month. Total world oil demand in 2019 is now projected to surpass 100 mb/d for the first time and reach 100.23 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 is expected to grow by 2.02 mb/d, a downward revision of 64 tb/d. The US, Canada, Kazakhstan the UK, and Brazil remain to be the main drivers for growth, while Mexico and Norway are projected to show the largest declines. Total non-OPEC supply for 2018 is now estimated at 59.56 mb/d. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 is forecast to grow by 2.15 mb/d, a minor upward revision of 17 tb/d. The US, Brazil, Canada, and the UK are expected to be the main growth drivers, while Mexico and Norway remain to be the largest declines. Non-OPEC supply is now forecast to average 61.71 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs in 2018 and 2019 are expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d and 0.11 mb/d to average 6.36 mb/d and 6.47 mb/d, respectively. In August, OPEC crude oil production increased by 278 tb/d to average 32.56 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins at all main trading hubs recorded gains in August as several refinery outages prompted product supply disruptions, which led to strengthening at the top and middle of the barrel. In the US, product markets strengthened, supported mainly by higher product exports, particularly to Latin America. In Europe, declining Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp product inventories resulted in tighter product balances, which provided substantial support to refining margins. Meanwhile in Asia, refining margins strengthened on the back of lower refinery intakes caused by unplanned shutdowns and bullish market sentiment.
Tanker Market
In August, dirty vessel spot freight rates increased by 5% on average compared to a month earlier. This was mainly driven by higher freight rates for VLCC and Aframax, while average Suezmax freight rates showed a decline. Enhanced activity and delays on the US Gulf Coast (USGC) and Asia supported freight rates in August. In the clean tanker market, spot freight rates remained under pressure as high vessel availability continued, while tonnage demand remained limited, therefore resulting in rate declines in both the eastern and western directions of Suez.
Stock Movements
Data for July showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 8.1 mb m-o-m, standing at 2,830 mb, which is 194 mb lower than a year ago and 43 mb below the latest five-year average, but remain 260 mb above the January 2014 level. Compared to the latest five-year average, crude stocks indicated a deficit of 0.2 mb, while product stocks witnessed a deficit of 43 mb. In terms of days of forward demand cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 0.1 days m-o-m in July to stand at 59.1 days, which is 2.3 days below the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 32.9 mb/d, which is 0.5 mb/d lower than in the previous year. In 2019, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32.1 mb/d, around 0.9 mb/d lower than a year earlier.
Source: OPEC
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Sunday, 02 December 18
TRADE WAR LEADING TO HEADWINDS FOR THE FRAGILE DRY BULK RECOVERY - PETER SAND, BIMCO
The first twelve weeks of the 2018/19 marketing year, which started on 1 September 2018, have painted a dire picture for US soya bean exports which ...
Friday, 30 November 18
GOVT MULLS REQUIRING MINERS TO TURN COAL INTO GAS - THE JAKARTA POST
The government is considering requiring all coal miners to turn the raw commodity into dimethylether (DME) as a substitute for liquefied petroleum ...
Friday, 30 November 18
SUPRAMAX: N. CHINA TO INDIA OR SE ASIA SUPRAS ARE GETTING PAID AROUND US$ 6000 - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Sharp rise in spot activity and income, admittedly from very low levels, for the big ships. West Australia/China and Brazil/Far East b ...
Thursday, 29 November 18
NEW IMSBC CODE REQUIREMENTS AIM TO CONTROL LIQUEFACTION OF COAL CARGOES - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The International Maritime Solid Bulk Cargoes (IMSBC) Code describes coal as a natural, solid, combustible material consi ...
Wednesday, 28 November 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE LAIOS
Last week I had the privilege to attend the SingularityU Greece Summit, in Athens. It was a privilege because you do not often have the chance to s ...
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- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
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