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Thursday, 13 September 18
OPEC SEES SLOWER 2019 OIL DEMAND GROWTH, WARNS ON ECONOMY
 Crude Oil Price Movements
In August, the OPEC Reference Basket declined by $1.01 m-o-m, settling at $72.26/b. Crude oil futures were also down for the month. Price declines were mainly due to worries that the ongoing global trade disputes would lower oil demand, strengthening US dollar, US stock builds and reported supply increases. ICE Brent was $1.11 lower at $73.84/b compared to the previous month, while NYMEX WTI was down $2.74 at $67.85/b and DME Oman dropped 24¢ to $72.67/b. However, year-to-date (y-t-d) ICE Brent was still $19.86 higher at $72.00/b, while NYMEX WTI increased by $17.12 to $66.42/b and DME Oman was up $18.70 at $69.55/b. The Brent-WTI spread widened to average $6.00/b. Speculative net long positions ended mixed, with those of NYMEX WTI lower. As for market structure, the backwardation in Dubai remained unchanged, while that of WTI eased. The contango structure for Brent for the rest of the year deepened amid increasing supplies. The discount of sour to sweet crudes decreased due to an anticipated tightening of sour crude, while sweet crude availability was ample.
World Economy
The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019. In the OECD, growth in the US is assessed unchanged at 2.9% in 2018 and 2.5% in 2019. Euro-zone growth remains at 2.0% for 2018 and 1.9% for 2019. GDP growth in Japan is revised down by 0.1 pp to 1.1% in both 2018 and 2019. Meanwhile, in the non-OECD, India’s forecast is revised up to 7.6% for 2018, while remaining unchanged at 7.4% for 2019. China’s GDP growth remains at 6.6% for 2018 and 6.2% for 2019. Growth in Brazil is revised down by 0.4% to reach 1.2% in 2018, but a rebound to 2.0% is anticipated in 2019. Russia’s GDP growth forecast is also revised lower to 1.6% in 2018 and down to 1.7% in 2019.
World Oil Demand
In 2018, world oil demand is expected to grow by 1.62 mb/d, a minor downward revision from last month’s projection. In the OECD region, oil demand saw healthy growth in all three main OECD regions, particularly in the Americas over 1H18. In contrast, the non-OECD region, mainly Latin America and the Middle East, saw weaker oil requirements in 1H18 as well as slower economic projections, which has led to a net downward revision of 20 tb/d from last month’s report. Total oil demand for 2018 is now estimated at 98.82 mb/d. In 2019, world oil demand growth is forecast to rise by 1.41 mb/d, a minor downward adjustment of 20 tb/d from the previous month’s assessment, mainly reflecting the less optimistic economic projections in the non-OECD regions of Latin America and the Middle East compared to last month. Total world oil demand in 2019 is now projected to surpass 100 mb/d for the first time and reach 100.23 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 is expected to grow by 2.02 mb/d, a downward revision of 64 tb/d. The US, Canada, Kazakhstan the UK, and Brazil remain to be the main drivers for growth, while Mexico and Norway are projected to show the largest declines. Total non-OPEC supply for 2018 is now estimated at 59.56 mb/d. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 is forecast to grow by 2.15 mb/d, a minor upward revision of 17 tb/d. The US, Brazil, Canada, and the UK are expected to be the main growth drivers, while Mexico and Norway remain to be the largest declines. Non-OPEC supply is now forecast to average 61.71 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs in 2018 and 2019 are expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d and 0.11 mb/d to average 6.36 mb/d and 6.47 mb/d, respectively. In August, OPEC crude oil production increased by 278 tb/d to average 32.56 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins at all main trading hubs recorded gains in August as several refinery outages prompted product supply disruptions, which led to strengthening at the top and middle of the barrel. In the US, product markets strengthened, supported mainly by higher product exports, particularly to Latin America. In Europe, declining Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp product inventories resulted in tighter product balances, which provided substantial support to refining margins. Meanwhile in Asia, refining margins strengthened on the back of lower refinery intakes caused by unplanned shutdowns and bullish market sentiment.
Tanker Market
In August, dirty vessel spot freight rates increased by 5% on average compared to a month earlier. This was mainly driven by higher freight rates for VLCC and Aframax, while average Suezmax freight rates showed a decline. Enhanced activity and delays on the US Gulf Coast (USGC) and Asia supported freight rates in August. In the clean tanker market, spot freight rates remained under pressure as high vessel availability continued, while tonnage demand remained limited, therefore resulting in rate declines in both the eastern and western directions of Suez.
Stock Movements
Data for July showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 8.1 mb m-o-m, standing at 2,830 mb, which is 194 mb lower than a year ago and 43 mb below the latest five-year average, but remain 260 mb above the January 2014 level. Compared to the latest five-year average, crude stocks indicated a deficit of 0.2 mb, while product stocks witnessed a deficit of 43 mb. In terms of days of forward demand cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 0.1 days m-o-m in July to stand at 59.1 days, which is 2.3 days below the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 32.9 mb/d, which is 0.5 mb/d lower than in the previous year. In 2019, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32.1 mb/d, around 0.9 mb/d lower than a year earlier.
Source: OPEC
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Thursday, 22 November 18
SHUT OUT OF CHINA, U.S. COAL EXPORTERS FIND FAVOUR IN INDIA, FOR NOW - REUTERS
U.S. coal exporters have effectively lost a promising market in China since the imposition of tariffs as part of the ongoing trade dispute, but so ...
Wednesday, 21 November 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - DIMITRIS KOURTESIS
Halfway through the fourth and last quarter of the year, we spot a significant change in freight rates for tankers trading dirty, as well as on the ...
Tuesday, 20 November 18
FREIGHT RATES IN THE CRUDE OIL MARKET HAVE ALREADY PICKED UP OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS - YIANNIS VAMVAKAS
Current geopolitical developments between Iran and the US, which have led the latter to re-impose its sanctions, have significantly affected oil pr ...
Tuesday, 20 November 18
GOLDEN ENERGY AND RESOURCES LEADS A$249M BID FOR AUSTRALIA-LISTED STANMORE COAL - THE STRAITS TIMES
Singapore-listed Golden Energy and Resources (GEAR) is leading deals worth up to A$249 million (S$250 million) to acquire Australia-listed Stanmore ...
Monday, 19 November 18
INDONESIA'S LEADING EIGHT COAL MINER'S COAL MINING CONTRACTS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPIRE BETWEEN YEAR 2019 - 2025
The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) said, eight Coal Contract of Works (CCoW) will expected to expire between 2019 to 2026, Liputan ...
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- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PTC India Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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