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Thursday, 13 September 18
OPEC SEES SLOWER 2019 OIL DEMAND GROWTH, WARNS ON ECONOMY
 Crude Oil Price Movements
In August, the OPEC Reference Basket declined by $1.01 m-o-m, settling at $72.26/b. Crude oil futures were also down for the month. Price declines were mainly due to worries that the ongoing global trade disputes would lower oil demand, strengthening US dollar, US stock builds and reported supply increases. ICE Brent was $1.11 lower at $73.84/b compared to the previous month, while NYMEX WTI was down $2.74 at $67.85/b and DME Oman dropped 24¢ to $72.67/b. However, year-to-date (y-t-d) ICE Brent was still $19.86 higher at $72.00/b, while NYMEX WTI increased by $17.12 to $66.42/b and DME Oman was up $18.70 at $69.55/b. The Brent-WTI spread widened to average $6.00/b. Speculative net long positions ended mixed, with those of NYMEX WTI lower. As for market structure, the backwardation in Dubai remained unchanged, while that of WTI eased. The contango structure for Brent for the rest of the year deepened amid increasing supplies. The discount of sour to sweet crudes decreased due to an anticipated tightening of sour crude, while sweet crude availability was ample.
World Economy
The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019. In the OECD, growth in the US is assessed unchanged at 2.9% in 2018 and 2.5% in 2019. Euro-zone growth remains at 2.0% for 2018 and 1.9% for 2019. GDP growth in Japan is revised down by 0.1 pp to 1.1% in both 2018 and 2019. Meanwhile, in the non-OECD, India’s forecast is revised up to 7.6% for 2018, while remaining unchanged at 7.4% for 2019. China’s GDP growth remains at 6.6% for 2018 and 6.2% for 2019. Growth in Brazil is revised down by 0.4% to reach 1.2% in 2018, but a rebound to 2.0% is anticipated in 2019. Russia’s GDP growth forecast is also revised lower to 1.6% in 2018 and down to 1.7% in 2019.
World Oil Demand
In 2018, world oil demand is expected to grow by 1.62 mb/d, a minor downward revision from last month’s projection. In the OECD region, oil demand saw healthy growth in all three main OECD regions, particularly in the Americas over 1H18. In contrast, the non-OECD region, mainly Latin America and the Middle East, saw weaker oil requirements in 1H18 as well as slower economic projections, which has led to a net downward revision of 20 tb/d from last month’s report. Total oil demand for 2018 is now estimated at 98.82 mb/d. In 2019, world oil demand growth is forecast to rise by 1.41 mb/d, a minor downward adjustment of 20 tb/d from the previous month’s assessment, mainly reflecting the less optimistic economic projections in the non-OECD regions of Latin America and the Middle East compared to last month. Total world oil demand in 2019 is now projected to surpass 100 mb/d for the first time and reach 100.23 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 is expected to grow by 2.02 mb/d, a downward revision of 64 tb/d. The US, Canada, Kazakhstan the UK, and Brazil remain to be the main drivers for growth, while Mexico and Norway are projected to show the largest declines. Total non-OPEC supply for 2018 is now estimated at 59.56 mb/d. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 is forecast to grow by 2.15 mb/d, a minor upward revision of 17 tb/d. The US, Brazil, Canada, and the UK are expected to be the main growth drivers, while Mexico and Norway remain to be the largest declines. Non-OPEC supply is now forecast to average 61.71 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs in 2018 and 2019 are expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d and 0.11 mb/d to average 6.36 mb/d and 6.47 mb/d, respectively. In August, OPEC crude oil production increased by 278 tb/d to average 32.56 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins at all main trading hubs recorded gains in August as several refinery outages prompted product supply disruptions, which led to strengthening at the top and middle of the barrel. In the US, product markets strengthened, supported mainly by higher product exports, particularly to Latin America. In Europe, declining Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp product inventories resulted in tighter product balances, which provided substantial support to refining margins. Meanwhile in Asia, refining margins strengthened on the back of lower refinery intakes caused by unplanned shutdowns and bullish market sentiment.
Tanker Market
In August, dirty vessel spot freight rates increased by 5% on average compared to a month earlier. This was mainly driven by higher freight rates for VLCC and Aframax, while average Suezmax freight rates showed a decline. Enhanced activity and delays on the US Gulf Coast (USGC) and Asia supported freight rates in August. In the clean tanker market, spot freight rates remained under pressure as high vessel availability continued, while tonnage demand remained limited, therefore resulting in rate declines in both the eastern and western directions of Suez.
Stock Movements
Data for July showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 8.1 mb m-o-m, standing at 2,830 mb, which is 194 mb lower than a year ago and 43 mb below the latest five-year average, but remain 260 mb above the January 2014 level. Compared to the latest five-year average, crude stocks indicated a deficit of 0.2 mb, while product stocks witnessed a deficit of 43 mb. In terms of days of forward demand cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 0.1 days m-o-m in July to stand at 59.1 days, which is 2.3 days below the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 32.9 mb/d, which is 0.5 mb/d lower than in the previous year. In 2019, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32.1 mb/d, around 0.9 mb/d lower than a year earlier.
Source: OPEC
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Monday, 19 November 18
SUPRAMAX: THE BSI CONTINUED TO FALL LAST WEEK, ESPECIALLY THE ASIAN ROUTES - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
After a cut throat couple of weeks, the market finally appeared to have found a floor and rates ticked up. Those analysts that predict ...
Sunday, 18 November 18
COAL STOCKS IN A THIRD OF NTPC PLANTS CLOSE TO NIL - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Coal supply shortage continues to haunt NTPC, the country’s largest power generator, with latest government data showing 31% of the company&r ...
Thursday, 15 November 18
OIL MARKET REPORT: HEEDING THE WARNINGS - IEA
In last month’s Report, we noted that since the middle of the year oil supply had increased sharply, with gains in the Middle East, Russia an ...
Wednesday, 14 November 18
BIMCO ADOPTS 2020 BUNKER CLAUSES
BIMCO has developed two 2020 bunker clauses that deal with general compliance and the transitional period for an early December release.
...
Wednesday, 14 November 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
The shipping industry is going through an interesting period across all markets. Since the end of last year, the Dry Baltic Index has been showing ...
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- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The University of Queensland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Planning Commission, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
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