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Thursday, 13 September 18
OPEC SEES SLOWER 2019 OIL DEMAND GROWTH, WARNS ON ECONOMY
 Crude Oil Price Movements
In August, the OPEC Reference Basket declined by $1.01 m-o-m, settling at $72.26/b. Crude oil futures were also down for the month. Price declines were mainly due to worries that the ongoing global trade disputes would lower oil demand, strengthening US dollar, US stock builds and reported supply increases. ICE Brent was $1.11 lower at $73.84/b compared to the previous month, while NYMEX WTI was down $2.74 at $67.85/b and DME Oman dropped 24¢ to $72.67/b. However, year-to-date (y-t-d) ICE Brent was still $19.86 higher at $72.00/b, while NYMEX WTI increased by $17.12 to $66.42/b and DME Oman was up $18.70 at $69.55/b. The Brent-WTI spread widened to average $6.00/b. Speculative net long positions ended mixed, with those of NYMEX WTI lower. As for market structure, the backwardation in Dubai remained unchanged, while that of WTI eased. The contango structure for Brent for the rest of the year deepened amid increasing supplies. The discount of sour to sweet crudes decreased due to an anticipated tightening of sour crude, while sweet crude availability was ample.
World Economy
The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019. In the OECD, growth in the US is assessed unchanged at 2.9% in 2018 and 2.5% in 2019. Euro-zone growth remains at 2.0% for 2018 and 1.9% for 2019. GDP growth in Japan is revised down by 0.1 pp to 1.1% in both 2018 and 2019. Meanwhile, in the non-OECD, India’s forecast is revised up to 7.6% for 2018, while remaining unchanged at 7.4% for 2019. China’s GDP growth remains at 6.6% for 2018 and 6.2% for 2019. Growth in Brazil is revised down by 0.4% to reach 1.2% in 2018, but a rebound to 2.0% is anticipated in 2019. Russia’s GDP growth forecast is also revised lower to 1.6% in 2018 and down to 1.7% in 2019.
World Oil Demand
In 2018, world oil demand is expected to grow by 1.62 mb/d, a minor downward revision from last month’s projection. In the OECD region, oil demand saw healthy growth in all three main OECD regions, particularly in the Americas over 1H18. In contrast, the non-OECD region, mainly Latin America and the Middle East, saw weaker oil requirements in 1H18 as well as slower economic projections, which has led to a net downward revision of 20 tb/d from last month’s report. Total oil demand for 2018 is now estimated at 98.82 mb/d. In 2019, world oil demand growth is forecast to rise by 1.41 mb/d, a minor downward adjustment of 20 tb/d from the previous month’s assessment, mainly reflecting the less optimistic economic projections in the non-OECD regions of Latin America and the Middle East compared to last month. Total world oil demand in 2019 is now projected to surpass 100 mb/d for the first time and reach 100.23 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 is expected to grow by 2.02 mb/d, a downward revision of 64 tb/d. The US, Canada, Kazakhstan the UK, and Brazil remain to be the main drivers for growth, while Mexico and Norway are projected to show the largest declines. Total non-OPEC supply for 2018 is now estimated at 59.56 mb/d. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 is forecast to grow by 2.15 mb/d, a minor upward revision of 17 tb/d. The US, Brazil, Canada, and the UK are expected to be the main growth drivers, while Mexico and Norway remain to be the largest declines. Non-OPEC supply is now forecast to average 61.71 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs in 2018 and 2019 are expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d and 0.11 mb/d to average 6.36 mb/d and 6.47 mb/d, respectively. In August, OPEC crude oil production increased by 278 tb/d to average 32.56 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins at all main trading hubs recorded gains in August as several refinery outages prompted product supply disruptions, which led to strengthening at the top and middle of the barrel. In the US, product markets strengthened, supported mainly by higher product exports, particularly to Latin America. In Europe, declining Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp product inventories resulted in tighter product balances, which provided substantial support to refining margins. Meanwhile in Asia, refining margins strengthened on the back of lower refinery intakes caused by unplanned shutdowns and bullish market sentiment.
Tanker Market
In August, dirty vessel spot freight rates increased by 5% on average compared to a month earlier. This was mainly driven by higher freight rates for VLCC and Aframax, while average Suezmax freight rates showed a decline. Enhanced activity and delays on the US Gulf Coast (USGC) and Asia supported freight rates in August. In the clean tanker market, spot freight rates remained under pressure as high vessel availability continued, while tonnage demand remained limited, therefore resulting in rate declines in both the eastern and western directions of Suez.
Stock Movements
Data for July showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 8.1 mb m-o-m, standing at 2,830 mb, which is 194 mb lower than a year ago and 43 mb below the latest five-year average, but remain 260 mb above the January 2014 level. Compared to the latest five-year average, crude stocks indicated a deficit of 0.2 mb, while product stocks witnessed a deficit of 43 mb. In terms of days of forward demand cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 0.1 days m-o-m in July to stand at 59.1 days, which is 2.3 days below the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 32.9 mb/d, which is 0.5 mb/d lower than in the previous year. In 2019, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32.1 mb/d, around 0.9 mb/d lower than a year earlier.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 02 November 18
COAL FETCHES 102% PREMIUM IN E-AUCTION, SURPASSING THE EARLIER HIGHEST OF 95% - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Coal prices have received a premium of 102% in spot e-auction during September 2018, surpassing the earlier highest of 95% premium during the spot ...
Friday, 02 November 18
CHINA: COAL CONSUMPTION POSTS STRONG GROWTH ON BACK OF POWER GENERATION DEMAND - CHINA DAILY
China’s energy consumption experienced continuous rebound during the first three quarters in 2018, National Energy Administration announced o ...
Thursday, 01 November 18
IMO 2020 - EXPLORING THE OPTION OF SOX SCRUBBERS - SIDDHARTH MAHAJAN, GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
There are four possible methods of compliance:
1.use VLSFO (very low Sulphur oil) or blends;
2,use dis ...
Wednesday, 31 October 18
INDIA: COAL IMPORTS SURGE ON DOMESTIC SHORT SUPPLY - HINDU
Shortage of thermal coal supply in India has pushed imports up to 85 million tonnes (mt) in the first half of the current fiscal compared to 75 mt ...
Wednesday, 31 October 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - APOSTOLOS ROMPOPOULOS
Since the IMO’s 2020 global cap on sulphur in marine fuels is coming into force, ship-owners have to decide whether they will operate using e ...
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- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
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- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
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