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Thursday, 13 September 18
OPEC SEES SLOWER 2019 OIL DEMAND GROWTH, WARNS ON ECONOMY
 Crude Oil Price Movements
In August, the OPEC Reference Basket declined by $1.01 m-o-m, settling at $72.26/b. Crude oil futures were also down for the month. Price declines were mainly due to worries that the ongoing global trade disputes would lower oil demand, strengthening US dollar, US stock builds and reported supply increases. ICE Brent was $1.11 lower at $73.84/b compared to the previous month, while NYMEX WTI was down $2.74 at $67.85/b and DME Oman dropped 24¢ to $72.67/b. However, year-to-date (y-t-d) ICE Brent was still $19.86 higher at $72.00/b, while NYMEX WTI increased by $17.12 to $66.42/b and DME Oman was up $18.70 at $69.55/b. The Brent-WTI spread widened to average $6.00/b. Speculative net long positions ended mixed, with those of NYMEX WTI lower. As for market structure, the backwardation in Dubai remained unchanged, while that of WTI eased. The contango structure for Brent for the rest of the year deepened amid increasing supplies. The discount of sour to sweet crudes decreased due to an anticipated tightening of sour crude, while sweet crude availability was ample.
World Economy
The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019. In the OECD, growth in the US is assessed unchanged at 2.9% in 2018 and 2.5% in 2019. Euro-zone growth remains at 2.0% for 2018 and 1.9% for 2019. GDP growth in Japan is revised down by 0.1 pp to 1.1% in both 2018 and 2019. Meanwhile, in the non-OECD, India’s forecast is revised up to 7.6% for 2018, while remaining unchanged at 7.4% for 2019. China’s GDP growth remains at 6.6% for 2018 and 6.2% for 2019. Growth in Brazil is revised down by 0.4% to reach 1.2% in 2018, but a rebound to 2.0% is anticipated in 2019. Russia’s GDP growth forecast is also revised lower to 1.6% in 2018 and down to 1.7% in 2019.
World Oil Demand
In 2018, world oil demand is expected to grow by 1.62 mb/d, a minor downward revision from last month’s projection. In the OECD region, oil demand saw healthy growth in all three main OECD regions, particularly in the Americas over 1H18. In contrast, the non-OECD region, mainly Latin America and the Middle East, saw weaker oil requirements in 1H18 as well as slower economic projections, which has led to a net downward revision of 20 tb/d from last month’s report. Total oil demand for 2018 is now estimated at 98.82 mb/d. In 2019, world oil demand growth is forecast to rise by 1.41 mb/d, a minor downward adjustment of 20 tb/d from the previous month’s assessment, mainly reflecting the less optimistic economic projections in the non-OECD regions of Latin America and the Middle East compared to last month. Total world oil demand in 2019 is now projected to surpass 100 mb/d for the first time and reach 100.23 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 is expected to grow by 2.02 mb/d, a downward revision of 64 tb/d. The US, Canada, Kazakhstan the UK, and Brazil remain to be the main drivers for growth, while Mexico and Norway are projected to show the largest declines. Total non-OPEC supply for 2018 is now estimated at 59.56 mb/d. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 is forecast to grow by 2.15 mb/d, a minor upward revision of 17 tb/d. The US, Brazil, Canada, and the UK are expected to be the main growth drivers, while Mexico and Norway remain to be the largest declines. Non-OPEC supply is now forecast to average 61.71 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs in 2018 and 2019 are expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d and 0.11 mb/d to average 6.36 mb/d and 6.47 mb/d, respectively. In August, OPEC crude oil production increased by 278 tb/d to average 32.56 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins at all main trading hubs recorded gains in August as several refinery outages prompted product supply disruptions, which led to strengthening at the top and middle of the barrel. In the US, product markets strengthened, supported mainly by higher product exports, particularly to Latin America. In Europe, declining Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp product inventories resulted in tighter product balances, which provided substantial support to refining margins. Meanwhile in Asia, refining margins strengthened on the back of lower refinery intakes caused by unplanned shutdowns and bullish market sentiment.
Tanker Market
In August, dirty vessel spot freight rates increased by 5% on average compared to a month earlier. This was mainly driven by higher freight rates for VLCC and Aframax, while average Suezmax freight rates showed a decline. Enhanced activity and delays on the US Gulf Coast (USGC) and Asia supported freight rates in August. In the clean tanker market, spot freight rates remained under pressure as high vessel availability continued, while tonnage demand remained limited, therefore resulting in rate declines in both the eastern and western directions of Suez.
Stock Movements
Data for July showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 8.1 mb m-o-m, standing at 2,830 mb, which is 194 mb lower than a year ago and 43 mb below the latest five-year average, but remain 260 mb above the January 2014 level. Compared to the latest five-year average, crude stocks indicated a deficit of 0.2 mb, while product stocks witnessed a deficit of 43 mb. In terms of days of forward demand cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 0.1 days m-o-m in July to stand at 59.1 days, which is 2.3 days below the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 32.9 mb/d, which is 0.5 mb/d lower than in the previous year. In 2019, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32.1 mb/d, around 0.9 mb/d lower than a year earlier.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 02 November 18
COAL FETCHES 102% PREMIUM IN E-AUCTION, SURPASSING THE EARLIER HIGHEST OF 95% - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Coal prices have received a premium of 102% in spot e-auction during September 2018, surpassing the earlier highest of 95% premium during the spot ...
Friday, 02 November 18
CHINA: COAL CONSUMPTION POSTS STRONG GROWTH ON BACK OF POWER GENERATION DEMAND - CHINA DAILY
China’s energy consumption experienced continuous rebound during the first three quarters in 2018, National Energy Administration announced o ...
Thursday, 01 November 18
IMO 2020 - EXPLORING THE OPTION OF SOX SCRUBBERS - SIDDHARTH MAHAJAN, GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
There are four possible methods of compliance:
1.use VLSFO (very low Sulphur oil) or blends;
2,use dis ...
Wednesday, 31 October 18
INDIA: COAL IMPORTS SURGE ON DOMESTIC SHORT SUPPLY - HINDU
Shortage of thermal coal supply in India has pushed imports up to 85 million tonnes (mt) in the first half of the current fiscal compared to 75 mt ...
Wednesday, 31 October 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - APOSTOLOS ROMPOPOULOS
Since the IMO’s 2020 global cap on sulphur in marine fuels is coming into force, ship-owners have to decide whether they will operate using e ...
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The University of Queensland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PTC India Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
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