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Wednesday, 12 September 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 A recovery in the shipping market since last year has buoyed optimism amongst the people in the industry. Yet if you are to ask most ship-owners if they are happy with the market, you will get a reply “mmmh... not really...”. The market hike seems to have hit a ceiling the past months and whilst the ship earnings have doubled or tripled compared to two years ago, they still seem to be just a touch (?) away from their break-even. Also, opposite to the common belief, during the past few months instead of further improvement we have seen a lot of volatility and a resistance to get to higher levels.
On the ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by 181 vessels since last year corresponding to a marginal growth of just below 2%. This moderate fleet increase versus four percent global growth has no doubt been a major driver of the recovery. Looking forward, there has been some order replenishment and in fact the orderbook is today bigger than what it was a year ago; about half of the new orders are Kamsarmaxes, generating some concerns on over ordering and affecting an already fragile market. On the other hand we can easily argue that the environmental regulations that are coming into force over the next couple of years, will call on owners to make substantial investments in their assets and we don't expect them to upgrade their older vessels. Current orderbook – not including slippage/cancellations – stands at 8.5% of the world fleet and with 9% of the fleet being over 20 years old you have a good release valve to balance the new deliveries.
On the other side of the equation there still is a growing demand for seaborne transportation. The population continues to expand, emerging countries continue to absorb shipping goods and raw materials, so - still being the most fuel efficient and environment friendly form of commercial transport – seaborne trade will continue to grow; this is a fact. On the other hand, shipping is inherently correlated to the world economy, so the trade contraction from trade wars, may translate into reduction in demand for shipping, and although China is no longer growing at eight or ten percent annually, it's still leading the demand for tonne miles. To put it simply, the demand is under short term shakedown from president Trump. Up until today, the markets have been on wait-and-see mode whether the threats are valid and how far the confrontation will go. The US president's tariffs have been met with Chinese retaliation and Beijing administration confident that they can cope with full scale trade war.
So, although we don't see a ceiling, since there seem to be strong fundamentals for the market to improve further, we are now on a kind of a plateau whereby there are economic as well as political reasons that are preventing markets to improve further. For shipping we believe that this will work in its favour in the longer term as, although it's a good entry point for investments and the upside is there, it makes the ship-owners more careful, patient and they avoid overreactions. This situation should also remind everybody that shipping is an infinite game and the objective of the players – both know and unknown - is to perpetuate the game.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 21 June 18
CHINESE REDUCED COAL IMPORT RESTRICTIONS - CAIXIN GLOBAL
Caixin Global reported that the Chinese government has reduced restrictions on coal imports at the nation’s major ports in response to concer ...
Thursday, 21 June 18
INDIAN GOVERNMENT ADMITS COAL SHORTAGE, ASKS DISCOMS TO IMPORT - TIMES OF INDIA
Times of India reported that the power ministry has advised all state governments and private power distribution companies to import coal as Coal I ...
Tuesday, 19 June 18
WCA RESPONDS TO BP STATISTICAL REVIEW OF WORLD ENERGY 2018
Responding to BP’s Statistical Review of World Energy 2018, Benjamin Sporton, Chief Executive of the World Coal Association (WCA) said, &ldqu ...
Wednesday, 13 June 18
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TO DECLINE BY 2% TO 756 MILLION SHORT TONS MMST IN 2018 - EIA
EIA forecasts U.S. coal production to decline by 2% to 756 million short tons (MMst) in 2018.
According to EIA's Short-Term Ener ...
Wednesday, 13 June 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - SOPHIE COTZIAS
2018 marks quite a few milestones for Greek Shipping. No need to detail again the greatness of Greek Shipping or the singular position that Greek s ...
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- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Planning Commission, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
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