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Wednesday, 12 September 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 A recovery in the shipping market since last year has buoyed optimism amongst the people in the industry. Yet if you are to ask most ship-owners if they are happy with the market, you will get a reply “mmmh... not really...”. The market hike seems to have hit a ceiling the past months and whilst the ship earnings have doubled or tripled compared to two years ago, they still seem to be just a touch (?) away from their break-even. Also, opposite to the common belief, during the past few months instead of further improvement we have seen a lot of volatility and a resistance to get to higher levels.
On the ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by 181 vessels since last year corresponding to a marginal growth of just below 2%. This moderate fleet increase versus four percent global growth has no doubt been a major driver of the recovery. Looking forward, there has been some order replenishment and in fact the orderbook is today bigger than what it was a year ago; about half of the new orders are Kamsarmaxes, generating some concerns on over ordering and affecting an already fragile market. On the other hand we can easily argue that the environmental regulations that are coming into force over the next couple of years, will call on owners to make substantial investments in their assets and we don't expect them to upgrade their older vessels. Current orderbook – not including slippage/cancellations – stands at 8.5% of the world fleet and with 9% of the fleet being over 20 years old you have a good release valve to balance the new deliveries.
On the other side of the equation there still is a growing demand for seaborne transportation. The population continues to expand, emerging countries continue to absorb shipping goods and raw materials, so - still being the most fuel efficient and environment friendly form of commercial transport – seaborne trade will continue to grow; this is a fact. On the other hand, shipping is inherently correlated to the world economy, so the trade contraction from trade wars, may translate into reduction in demand for shipping, and although China is no longer growing at eight or ten percent annually, it's still leading the demand for tonne miles. To put it simply, the demand is under short term shakedown from president Trump. Up until today, the markets have been on wait-and-see mode whether the threats are valid and how far the confrontation will go. The US president's tariffs have been met with Chinese retaliation and Beijing administration confident that they can cope with full scale trade war.
So, although we don't see a ceiling, since there seem to be strong fundamentals for the market to improve further, we are now on a kind of a plateau whereby there are economic as well as political reasons that are preventing markets to improve further. For shipping we believe that this will work in its favour in the longer term as, although it's a good entry point for investments and the upside is there, it makes the ship-owners more careful, patient and they avoid overreactions. This situation should also remind everybody that shipping is an infinite game and the objective of the players – both know and unknown - is to perpetuate the game.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 11 June 18
AUSTRALIAN COAL PRICES HIT 6-YEAR HIGH AS ASIA DEMAND SPIKES - REUTERS
Australian thermal coal prices have risen to their highest level since 2012 as hot weather across North Asia spurs buying ahead of the peak summer ...
Monday, 11 June 18
ANALYSING A NEW AGE OF AUTONOMOUS VESSELS - IMO
The International Maritime Organization answers the questions of Government Europa on how the next generation of autonomous vessels can be regulate ...
Friday, 08 June 18
AUSTRALIAN THERMAL COAL PRICES SURGE AS ASIA DEMAND HEATS UP - REUTERS
Australian thermal coal prices have hit their highest level since late 2016 as the market heats up on strong demand across North Asia and China in ...
Wednesday, 06 June 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
As observed last month the price of oil hit its highest level since November 2014 reaching $80 per barrel. Global oil demand growth for 2018 was sl ...
Tuesday, 05 June 18
SOUTH KOREA'S SULPHUR CAP ALTERS ASIAN COAL MARKET DYNAMICS: RUSSELL
South Korea’s imposition of a strict sulphur cap on its imported coal is likely to cause ripples across Asia’s markets for the pollutin ...
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- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Planning Commission, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
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