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Wednesday, 12 September 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 A recovery in the shipping market since last year has buoyed optimism amongst the people in the industry. Yet if you are to ask most ship-owners if they are happy with the market, you will get a reply “mmmh... not really...”. The market hike seems to have hit a ceiling the past months and whilst the ship earnings have doubled or tripled compared to two years ago, they still seem to be just a touch (?) away from their break-even. Also, opposite to the common belief, during the past few months instead of further improvement we have seen a lot of volatility and a resistance to get to higher levels.
On the ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by 181 vessels since last year corresponding to a marginal growth of just below 2%. This moderate fleet increase versus four percent global growth has no doubt been a major driver of the recovery. Looking forward, there has been some order replenishment and in fact the orderbook is today bigger than what it was a year ago; about half of the new orders are Kamsarmaxes, generating some concerns on over ordering and affecting an already fragile market. On the other hand we can easily argue that the environmental regulations that are coming into force over the next couple of years, will call on owners to make substantial investments in their assets and we don't expect them to upgrade their older vessels. Current orderbook – not including slippage/cancellations – stands at 8.5% of the world fleet and with 9% of the fleet being over 20 years old you have a good release valve to balance the new deliveries.
On the other side of the equation there still is a growing demand for seaborne transportation. The population continues to expand, emerging countries continue to absorb shipping goods and raw materials, so - still being the most fuel efficient and environment friendly form of commercial transport – seaborne trade will continue to grow; this is a fact. On the other hand, shipping is inherently correlated to the world economy, so the trade contraction from trade wars, may translate into reduction in demand for shipping, and although China is no longer growing at eight or ten percent annually, it's still leading the demand for tonne miles. To put it simply, the demand is under short term shakedown from president Trump. Up until today, the markets have been on wait-and-see mode whether the threats are valid and how far the confrontation will go. The US president's tariffs have been met with Chinese retaliation and Beijing administration confident that they can cope with full scale trade war.
So, although we don't see a ceiling, since there seem to be strong fundamentals for the market to improve further, we are now on a kind of a plateau whereby there are economic as well as political reasons that are preventing markets to improve further. For shipping we believe that this will work in its favour in the longer term as, although it's a good entry point for investments and the upside is there, it makes the ship-owners more careful, patient and they avoid overreactions. This situation should also remind everybody that shipping is an infinite game and the objective of the players – both know and unknown - is to perpetuate the game.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 05 June 18
THINGS STILL LOOK TO BE PROMISING FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF MONTHS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
Just as we thought the world was calming back down to reason, worries and frictions regarding global trade resurfaced this past week after a series ...
Tuesday, 05 June 18
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE IS GOING UP AGAIN
COALspot.com: According to latest ministerial decree No. 1857 K/30/MEM/2018 dated 4 June 2018, the Indonesian Coal Price Reference (HBA) up 7.91 pe ...
Saturday, 02 June 18
HOW CARBON UTILISATION WILL BE A KEY STEP IN INDIA'S CLIMATE STRATEGY - BENJAMIN SPORTON
For India, energy remains the key driver of growth, not only from an economic perspective but more importantly for accelerating social development. ...
Thursday, 31 May 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO/CHINA COAL RV IS GETTING FIXED AROUND $13K DELIVERY SINGAPORE - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
The Cape market has been on a downward trend for the past week.
According to Fearnleys, Oslo based broker, Brazil market ...
Wednesday, 30 May 18
HIGH PRICE, DMO ENCOURAGE COAL MINERS TO BOOST PRODUCTION - THE JAKARTA POST
A number of coal miners are planning to increase production by 10 percent in the second half of this year after a worldwide price increase.
Th ...
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- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Planning Commission, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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