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Wednesday, 12 September 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 A recovery in the shipping market since last year has buoyed optimism amongst the people in the industry. Yet if you are to ask most ship-owners if they are happy with the market, you will get a reply “mmmh... not really...”. The market hike seems to have hit a ceiling the past months and whilst the ship earnings have doubled or tripled compared to two years ago, they still seem to be just a touch (?) away from their break-even. Also, opposite to the common belief, during the past few months instead of further improvement we have seen a lot of volatility and a resistance to get to higher levels.
On the ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by 181 vessels since last year corresponding to a marginal growth of just below 2%. This moderate fleet increase versus four percent global growth has no doubt been a major driver of the recovery. Looking forward, there has been some order replenishment and in fact the orderbook is today bigger than what it was a year ago; about half of the new orders are Kamsarmaxes, generating some concerns on over ordering and affecting an already fragile market. On the other hand we can easily argue that the environmental regulations that are coming into force over the next couple of years, will call on owners to make substantial investments in their assets and we don't expect them to upgrade their older vessels. Current orderbook – not including slippage/cancellations – stands at 8.5% of the world fleet and with 9% of the fleet being over 20 years old you have a good release valve to balance the new deliveries.
On the other side of the equation there still is a growing demand for seaborne transportation. The population continues to expand, emerging countries continue to absorb shipping goods and raw materials, so - still being the most fuel efficient and environment friendly form of commercial transport – seaborne trade will continue to grow; this is a fact. On the other hand, shipping is inherently correlated to the world economy, so the trade contraction from trade wars, may translate into reduction in demand for shipping, and although China is no longer growing at eight or ten percent annually, it's still leading the demand for tonne miles. To put it simply, the demand is under short term shakedown from president Trump. Up until today, the markets have been on wait-and-see mode whether the threats are valid and how far the confrontation will go. The US president's tariffs have been met with Chinese retaliation and Beijing administration confident that they can cope with full scale trade war.
So, although we don't see a ceiling, since there seem to be strong fundamentals for the market to improve further, we are now on a kind of a plateau whereby there are economic as well as political reasons that are preventing markets to improve further. For shipping we believe that this will work in its favour in the longer term as, although it's a good entry point for investments and the upside is there, it makes the ship-owners more careful, patient and they avoid overreactions. This situation should also remind everybody that shipping is an infinite game and the objective of the players – both know and unknown - is to perpetuate the game.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 24 May 18
SUPRAS FIXING AROUND USD 15000 FOR INDO TO CHINA COAL TRIPS - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Both the physical and the paper market have dropped sharply the last couple of days on the back of a lack of fresh cargoes and a growing ...
Thursday, 24 May 18
FITCH: FALLING COAL INVESTMENT TO SUPPORT ASIAN PRICES
Press Release: The long-term outlook for the Asian thermal coal prices is improving, amid rising regional demand and falling mining investment, whi ...
Thursday, 24 May 18
BEIJING ORDERS UTILITIES, MINERS TO HELP COOL RED-HOT COAL MARKET: SOURCES - REUTERS
China’s state planner ordered utilities this week to stop stockpiling thermal coal and told miners to slash prices, two sources familiar with ...
Wednesday, 23 May 18
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
In the last six months we have seen more than 110 reported tanker transactions involving tonnage larger than 32k dwt and younger than 18 years old. ...
Friday, 18 May 18
AFTER COAL, INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT PUSHES DMO ON GAS FOR ELECTRICITY
After introducing its domestic market obligation (DMO) policy for coal on March 12, the government is going forward with its plan to introduce a DM ...
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Showing 1716 to 1720 news of total 6871 |
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- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Planning Commission, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
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