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Wednesday, 12 September 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 A recovery in the shipping market since last year has buoyed optimism amongst the people in the industry. Yet if you are to ask most ship-owners if they are happy with the market, you will get a reply “mmmh... not really...”. The market hike seems to have hit a ceiling the past months and whilst the ship earnings have doubled or tripled compared to two years ago, they still seem to be just a touch (?) away from their break-even. Also, opposite to the common belief, during the past few months instead of further improvement we have seen a lot of volatility and a resistance to get to higher levels.
On the ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by 181 vessels since last year corresponding to a marginal growth of just below 2%. This moderate fleet increase versus four percent global growth has no doubt been a major driver of the recovery. Looking forward, there has been some order replenishment and in fact the orderbook is today bigger than what it was a year ago; about half of the new orders are Kamsarmaxes, generating some concerns on over ordering and affecting an already fragile market. On the other hand we can easily argue that the environmental regulations that are coming into force over the next couple of years, will call on owners to make substantial investments in their assets and we don't expect them to upgrade their older vessels. Current orderbook – not including slippage/cancellations – stands at 8.5% of the world fleet and with 9% of the fleet being over 20 years old you have a good release valve to balance the new deliveries.
On the other side of the equation there still is a growing demand for seaborne transportation. The population continues to expand, emerging countries continue to absorb shipping goods and raw materials, so - still being the most fuel efficient and environment friendly form of commercial transport – seaborne trade will continue to grow; this is a fact. On the other hand, shipping is inherently correlated to the world economy, so the trade contraction from trade wars, may translate into reduction in demand for shipping, and although China is no longer growing at eight or ten percent annually, it's still leading the demand for tonne miles. To put it simply, the demand is under short term shakedown from president Trump. Up until today, the markets have been on wait-and-see mode whether the threats are valid and how far the confrontation will go. The US president's tariffs have been met with Chinese retaliation and Beijing administration confident that they can cope with full scale trade war.
So, although we don't see a ceiling, since there seem to be strong fundamentals for the market to improve further, we are now on a kind of a plateau whereby there are economic as well as political reasons that are preventing markets to improve further. For shipping we believe that this will work in its favour in the longer term as, although it's a good entry point for investments and the upside is there, it makes the ship-owners more careful, patient and they avoid overreactions. This situation should also remind everybody that shipping is an infinite game and the objective of the players – both know and unknown - is to perpetuate the game.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 18 May 18
INDONESIA'S SAMARINDA ANCHORAGE COAL LOADING ACTIVITIES WERE RESUMED YESTERDAY AT 4PM LOCAL TIME
Samarinda Anchorage coal loading activities were resumed yesterday at 4PM local time.
Local fishermen in Samarinda Anchorage have been demonst ...
Wednesday, 16 May 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE ILIOPOULOS
Half-way through the second quarter of the year and as the Posidonia week approaches everyone is getting ready for this unique gathering that besid ...
Thursday, 10 May 18
PRIVATE POWER PRODUCERS NEED A 'POWERFUL PUSH' - PRADEEP MITTAL
- PLF of the Private Sector in the country (Coal and Lignite based) for FY 2017-18 (till Dec 2017) is 56%.
- 51 GW of stressed assets (Thermal &a ...
Tuesday, 08 May 18
BUMA SIGNED OVER US$1 BILLION WORTH OF NEW CONTRACT WITH PT INDONESIA PRATAMA
PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. announced that its subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama, has entered into mining services contracts with PT Indones ...
Monday, 07 May 18
BENCHMARK PRICE OF INDONESIAN THERMAL COAL DROPPED BACK BELOW $90 A TON THIS MONTH
COALspot.com: According to latest ministerial decree No. 1812 K/30/MEM/2018 dated 3 May 2018, the Indonesian Coal Price Reference (HBA) decline 5.5 ...
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- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Planning Commission, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
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