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Wednesday, 12 September 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 A recovery in the shipping market since last year has buoyed optimism amongst the people in the industry. Yet if you are to ask most ship-owners if they are happy with the market, you will get a reply “mmmh... not really...”. The market hike seems to have hit a ceiling the past months and whilst the ship earnings have doubled or tripled compared to two years ago, they still seem to be just a touch (?) away from their break-even. Also, opposite to the common belief, during the past few months instead of further improvement we have seen a lot of volatility and a resistance to get to higher levels.
On the ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by 181 vessels since last year corresponding to a marginal growth of just below 2%. This moderate fleet increase versus four percent global growth has no doubt been a major driver of the recovery. Looking forward, there has been some order replenishment and in fact the orderbook is today bigger than what it was a year ago; about half of the new orders are Kamsarmaxes, generating some concerns on over ordering and affecting an already fragile market. On the other hand we can easily argue that the environmental regulations that are coming into force over the next couple of years, will call on owners to make substantial investments in their assets and we don't expect them to upgrade their older vessels. Current orderbook – not including slippage/cancellations – stands at 8.5% of the world fleet and with 9% of the fleet being over 20 years old you have a good release valve to balance the new deliveries.
On the other side of the equation there still is a growing demand for seaborne transportation. The population continues to expand, emerging countries continue to absorb shipping goods and raw materials, so - still being the most fuel efficient and environment friendly form of commercial transport – seaborne trade will continue to grow; this is a fact. On the other hand, shipping is inherently correlated to the world economy, so the trade contraction from trade wars, may translate into reduction in demand for shipping, and although China is no longer growing at eight or ten percent annually, it's still leading the demand for tonne miles. To put it simply, the demand is under short term shakedown from president Trump. Up until today, the markets have been on wait-and-see mode whether the threats are valid and how far the confrontation will go. The US president's tariffs have been met with Chinese retaliation and Beijing administration confident that they can cope with full scale trade war.
So, although we don't see a ceiling, since there seem to be strong fundamentals for the market to improve further, we are now on a kind of a plateau whereby there are economic as well as political reasons that are preventing markets to improve further. For shipping we believe that this will work in its favour in the longer term as, although it's a good entry point for investments and the upside is there, it makes the ship-owners more careful, patient and they avoid overreactions. This situation should also remind everybody that shipping is an infinite game and the objective of the players – both know and unknown - is to perpetuate the game.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 01 May 18
GLOBAL MINER PEABODY EYES SALES OPPORTUNITY IN INDIA’S RISING COAL IMPORTS - BUSINESS STANDARD
Indian imports of coal will continue to rise, reckons the world’s largest private sector coal miner Peabody Energy. Glenn Kellow, president a ...
Saturday, 28 April 18
STRONG ASIAN DEMAND CONTINUES TO HOLD UP THERMAL COAL MARKETS - REUTERS
Asian thermal coal demand is defying its typical seasonal slowdown as well as the expanding use of renewables and natural gas, with prices holding ...
Friday, 27 April 18
PEABODY ENERGY'S REVENUES FOR THE FIRST QUARTER ROSE 10 PERCENT OVER THE PRIOR YEAR TO $1.46 BILLION
Peabody Energy's revenues for the first quarter rose 10 percent over the prior year to $1.46 billion driven by improved seaborne coal pricing a ...
Thursday, 26 April 18
BALTIC EXCHANGE LAUNCHES ESCROW SERVICE FOR VESSEL SALES
The Baltic Exchange will be launching an Escrow Service for its members to hold deposits for ship sale transactions. The move will allow Baltic Exc ...
Thursday, 26 April 18
COAL PRICES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE $85/MT IN 2018, DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM 2017 - WORLD BANK
Coal prices rose 4 percent in the first quarter (q/q), following a surge of 34 percent in 2017, mainly due to strong consumption in China spurred b ...
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Australian Coal Association
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The University of Queensland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
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