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Wednesday, 12 September 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 A recovery in the shipping market since last year has buoyed optimism amongst the people in the industry. Yet if you are to ask most ship-owners if they are happy with the market, you will get a reply “mmmh... not really...”. The market hike seems to have hit a ceiling the past months and whilst the ship earnings have doubled or tripled compared to two years ago, they still seem to be just a touch (?) away from their break-even. Also, opposite to the common belief, during the past few months instead of further improvement we have seen a lot of volatility and a resistance to get to higher levels.
On the ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by 181 vessels since last year corresponding to a marginal growth of just below 2%. This moderate fleet increase versus four percent global growth has no doubt been a major driver of the recovery. Looking forward, there has been some order replenishment and in fact the orderbook is today bigger than what it was a year ago; about half of the new orders are Kamsarmaxes, generating some concerns on over ordering and affecting an already fragile market. On the other hand we can easily argue that the environmental regulations that are coming into force over the next couple of years, will call on owners to make substantial investments in their assets and we don't expect them to upgrade their older vessels. Current orderbook – not including slippage/cancellations – stands at 8.5% of the world fleet and with 9% of the fleet being over 20 years old you have a good release valve to balance the new deliveries.
On the other side of the equation there still is a growing demand for seaborne transportation. The population continues to expand, emerging countries continue to absorb shipping goods and raw materials, so - still being the most fuel efficient and environment friendly form of commercial transport – seaborne trade will continue to grow; this is a fact. On the other hand, shipping is inherently correlated to the world economy, so the trade contraction from trade wars, may translate into reduction in demand for shipping, and although China is no longer growing at eight or ten percent annually, it's still leading the demand for tonne miles. To put it simply, the demand is under short term shakedown from president Trump. Up until today, the markets have been on wait-and-see mode whether the threats are valid and how far the confrontation will go. The US president's tariffs have been met with Chinese retaliation and Beijing administration confident that they can cope with full scale trade war.
So, although we don't see a ceiling, since there seem to be strong fundamentals for the market to improve further, we are now on a kind of a plateau whereby there are economic as well as political reasons that are preventing markets to improve further. For shipping we believe that this will work in its favour in the longer term as, although it's a good entry point for investments and the upside is there, it makes the ship-owners more careful, patient and they avoid overreactions. This situation should also remind everybody that shipping is an infinite game and the objective of the players – both know and unknown - is to perpetuate the game.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 16 April 18
MINISTER IGNASIUS JONAN SPEAKS HIS MIND AT INDONESIA MINER - IAN WOLLFF
The Minister for Energy and Mineral resources, Ignasius Jonan, delivered a key note address at the Indonesia Miner conference in Jakarta on the 11 ...
Thursday, 12 April 18
THE PERFECT STORM FOR THE BIG SHIPS - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The perfect storm for the big ships: with holidays, force majeure in two ore exporting ports and bad weather undermining the market. A l ...
Thursday, 12 April 18
SHIPPING CAN MANAGE US-CHINA TARIFFS, BUT RISKS RISING - FITCH
Container and, to some extent, dry bulk would probably be the shipping segments most affected by the recently announced US and China tariffs, Fitch ...
Thursday, 12 April 18
SUPRAS HAVE FIXED MID $11K FOR AN INDO RV TO S. CHINA DELIVERY PHILIPPINES - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Slow week with little light for improving rates. ECSA to Far East still around $15k + bb and same to Med ca $14k, says Fearnleys in its ...
Thursday, 12 April 18
ALWAYS ACCESSIBLE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
On 26 March 2018 Mr Justice Knowles determined that the berth warranty ‘always accessible’ must mean the vess ...
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Showing 1741 to 1745 news of total 6871 |
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- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
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